There were plenty of close games in round 5 of the 2015 AFL season and the surprises continued when the Western Bulldogs shocked the Sydney Swans in a thriller on Saturday afternoon.
There are a number of short-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend, but if this season has taught us anything it is that the gap between the best teams and those in the 12th to 14th range is much smaller than it has been in recent years.
We have analysed every single game this weekend to come up with the best bets for round 6 of the 2015 AFL season.
We are giving AFL punters a favor this weekend by offering $2 favourites on every single game this Saturday, which means the likes North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney will be available at significantly better odds with us then with any other bookmaker.
Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats
Friday, May 8 – 7:50pm AEST – MCG
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and will be telling for both sides as they push into the middle of the season. Most experts did not have the Magpies in their top eight at the start of the season, but the young Collingwood side has produced a string of impressive performances to date and they are the number one ranked contested-possession team this season. Geelong have had a tough start to the season and they almost let a key four points slip last Saturday when they let Richmond right back into the game. Clearances have been a big issue for the Cats, but this has not been a strength for the Magpies either and securing the ruck contest could be key for both sides chances in this clash. We have been critical of Geelong throughout this season, but the Magpies are coming off two big games and if they drop their level the Cats will be able to take advantage, which makes them great value at their current quote of $2.15.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
Saturday, May 9 – 1:45pm AEST – Blundstone Arena
Both these sides were expected to play finals football in 2015, but both currently sit outside the top eight and the loser of this game will be a long way away from finals football. The Kangaroos were simply outclassed by Hawthorn last weekend and it is clear that they have not closed the gap between them and the best teams in the competition, but they have a strong record against the Tigers in the past few years and have five of the last six clashes between the sides. The Tigers were almost able to record a comeback win over the Cats last weekend, but they were still far too inconsistent and their lack of respect for the football is staggering. The Kangaroos have a good record when they make the trip to Tasmania and we expect them to continue that against the Tigers on Saturday.
Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints
Saturday, May 9 – 2:10pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
The Western Bulldogs stellar start to the season continued last weekend when they upset the Sydney Swans and they have an outstanding opportunity to secure their position in the top four. The Bulldogs have developed into the number one tackling side in the AFL under new coach Luke Beveridge and this sort of pressure is sure to worry the young Saint Kilda side. The Saints produced one of their best performances of the season to date against the Bombers last weekend and they were arguably unlucky not to come away with the four points. Whether the Saints can string together these sort of performances is the big question, but they could be buoyed by the returns of Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna. The Bulldogs run of form is sure to come to an end at some point this season, but they should be able to improve their record to 5-1 this weekend.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
Saturday, May 9 – 4:35pm AEST – Spotless Stadium
The Greater Western Sydney Giants produced their worst performance of the season to date against the West Coast Eagles last weekend and it doesn’t get any easier for the young franchise this weekend. The Giants almost produced one of the biggest upsets in AFL history when they took on the Hawks in round 11 last year, but before that they had been beaten by the Hawks by a combined total of 245 points. The Hawks will be without key midfielders Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis for this clash, but this shouldn’t be that much of an issue for the defending premiers as they have more depth than just about any side in the competition. The Hawks look a very safe bet at their current quote of $1.22 and they should be able to cover the line that has been set at 29 and a half points.
Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows
Saturday, May 9 – 5:10pm AEST – Metricon Stadium
The Gold Coast Suns recorded their first win of the season when they beat the Brisbane Lions last Saturday night, but it has been a tough week for the franchise after Harley Bennell, Brandon Matera and Trent McKenzie all received suspensions for drinking. It has become very clear this season that the Suns are a franchise that is in plenty of strife and coach Rodney Eade may already have lost control of this list. The Crows tried extremely hard against Port Adelaide in Showdown last weekend, but they still lack the class to compete with the best teams in the AFL. That was their second straight loss and if they suffer a shock defeat this weekend they will eliminate all the good work that they did at the start of the season. The Suns have shown they can produce a strong effort in the face of adversity, but the Crows are a safe bet to return to winning form this weekend and maintain their perfect record against the Suns.
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans
Saturday, May 9 – 7:20pm AEST – MCG
The Sydney Swans cost themselves four points last weekend and they will be fired up to return to their best form against the Melbourne Demons this weekend. The Swans had plenty of chances to take control of their clash with the Western Bulldogs, but poor execution and decision making let them down and coach John Longmire would have got stuck into his side last weekend. Paul Roos takes on his old side at possibly the worst time as the Swans will be smarting following their last start loss and the Demons are coming off a poor performance against the Fremantle Dockers last weekend. The Demons were particularly disappointing in the final quarter and it has taken the shine off their promising start to the season. The Swans look like one of the safest bets of the season at their current quote of $1.17, but the line of 30 and a half points looks to be about right.
Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers
Saturday, May 9 – 6:10pm AEST – Domain Stadium
The Fremantle Dockers remain the only undefeated side in the AFL and they are clearly the best side in the AFL right now. Aaron Sandilands is in vintage form, while Nathan Fyfe has filled the gap left by Gary Ablett as the best player in the game. The Bombers made an excellent start to the season, but it is fair to say that their level has dropped significantly in the past three weeks and they were lucky to walk away with the four points when they took on the Saints. Essendon simply do not have a ruck man that can match it with Sandilands and it is very difficult to see where the Bombers can find an edge in this clash, especially if they produced another uninspired effort and the Dockers are not a bad bet to beat the line of 23 and a half points.
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions
Sunday, May 10 – 3:20pm AEST – Etihad Stadium
Mick Malthouse and Justin Leppitsch are two of the most under pressure coaches in the competition and their sides meet in what is a much-win clash. Malthouse was honored for becoming longest-serving coach in the history of the AFL before the Blues’ clash with Collingwood last weekend, but the celebrations quickly turned sour and his side was embarrassed by the Magpies right across the park. Key players like Bryce Gibbs have left the Blues down badly this season and they need to improve significantly if they are to gain anything form the 2015 season. The Brisbane Lions are still chasing their first win of the season and they produced another dreadful performance against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend. Things went from bad to worse for the Lions when Leppitsch was involved in a physical clash with rookie Zac O’Brien, but all that really did was take attention away from how bad his side has played this season. It is tough to have any confidence in either of these teams and this looks like the perfect no bet match.
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
Sunday, May 10 – 4:10pm AEST – Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide will be taking plenty of confidence into this match after they accounted for the Crows in Showdown last weekend and they have started their climb up the ladder following their tough start to the season. The West Coast Eagles have an excellent record against teams that are superior to and they maintained that with a dominant performance against the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend. This is obviously a far tougher test for the Eagles and their task will be made tougher if star forward Josh Kennedy, who kicked four goals last weekend, is ruled out due to injury. The Power have won their past two clashes against the West Coast Eagles and we expect them to extent that winning streak if front of their rabid home fans this weekend.
Don’t forget to take advantage of our AFL Big Hit Special! We’re offering $2 for all match favourites this Saturday. That’s boosted odds of $2 for the Kangaroos, Swans, Crows, Hawks and Bulldogs!