The Australian Cup is one of two Group 1 events at Flemington on Saturday and a strong field of gallopers are set to contest the weight-for-age event.
Godolphin galloper Bow Creek is currently a clear favourite in betting, but there are plenty of genuine winning chances and the Australian Cup can often throw up plenty of surprises.
Happy Trails
Happy Trails might be the best roughie in the 2016 edition of the Australian Cup. Photo by: Sarah Ebbett
Happy Trails started this race as favourite last year and finished a gallant third, but goes into this year’s race as genuine outsider. He was unable to record a race win during the spring, but he produced close to a career best effort when he finished second behind Criterion in the Ladbrokes Caulfield Stakes. If he can replicate that effort he would be right in this race and although he has been slightly flat this preparation, he is generally able to make a big step third-up. Far from the worst chance in the race.
Preferment
Preferment now has the reputation of a Flemington specialist after taking out both the Victoria Derby and the Turnbull Stakes, but there are question marks over the quality of that form. The Turnbull Stakes proved to be a very weak form reference for the rest of the spring and Preferment himself was not competitive in either the Cox Plate or the Melbourne Cup – although he did have excuses in both. There was nothing wrong with his performance in the Chipping Norton Stakes and he normally improves significantly second-up, but there are definitely other horses that appeal at the prices.
Extra Zero
He very nearly came away with a massive boilover victory in the Australian Cup last year and you can’t blame connections for having another crack. His performance in the race last year was a clear spike figure and he hasn’t got anywhere near that figure since. Even if he repeats that level of performance, I think that a higher rating performance will be needed to win this race.
Mourinho
Mourinho has the chance to record a second Group 1 victory in the 2016 Underwood Stakes this weekend. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
Mourinho bounced back to his best to finish third behind Bow Creek in the Peter Young Stakes and his victory in the Underwood Stakes last year shows that he is more than capable of winning at this level. The issue I see here is that he is fourth-up and he has tailed off badly at this stage of his preparation throughout his racing career. He has peaked third-up in four of his past five preparations and his fourth-up run in his past two preparations have been dreadful.
Our Ivanhowe
The German import is yet to win in Australia, but he just keeps on producing quality performances. He returned to the races with a great effort in the Peter Young Stakes and he is sure to have taken plenty of benefit from the run. The BMW is his major target and Lee Freedman will have him ready to peak there, but at his best he can be right in this. The lack of any real early speed could prove to be a problem, but he is sure to be rattling home late and he has to be included in the exotics.
Bow Creek
Bow Creek is currently a clear favourite in Australian Cup betting markets and it is very easy to see why. He has the perfect profile for an Australian Cup winner and he produced a new career best performance when he took out the Peter Young Stakes last start. The wide draw will actually be a positive and Flemington should suit him right down to the ground. The booking of Damien Oliver is always a massive boost in races like this one and he is clearly the horse to beat.
Almoonqith
Almoonqith can deliver David Hayes and Tom Dabernig a second straight Australian Cup victory. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
His first-up run in the Peter Young Stakes was better than it looks on paper and the Lindsay Park team definitely know what it takes to win this race. However, he is in a similar mould to Our Ivanhowe and I don’t think that he will reach his peak until he gets to the 2400 metres of The BMW and beyond. Another horse that I expect to run well, but I don’t expect him to win.
Awesome Rock
Awesome Rock has always promised plenty without really delivering, but he produced a career best performance in the Peter Young Stakes and he is another horse that has the right profile for an Australian Cup winner. He would definitely need to go to a new career peak again to be a genuine winning chance and the issue is that he can often produce a below par rating third-up. Not the worst $31 chance that you will see in a Group 1.
Rising Romance
It has been a while between wins for the talented mare, but she is capable of producing a rating figure that is good enough to put her in the frame. She did improve from the Orr Stakes to the Peter Young Stakes, but she doesn’t look as though she has the upside to turn-the-tables on the likes of Bow Creek. It would surprise me if she finished in the placings, but she looks under the odds at her current quote.
Suavito
Suavito will make the step-up to 2000 metres for the 2016 Australian Cup. Photo by: Adrienne Bicknell
Suavito is the toughest horse to assess in the 2016 Australian Cup as this will be just her second race start over 2000 metres. She won the Matriarch Stakes in a pretty good figure in her only previous start over this trip, but an Australian Cup is obviously a much tougher assignment. There has been plenty of merit in her two performances to date this preparation and I expect her to produce a similar performance, but she lacks the upside of some of the other leading chances.
Fenway
There is plenty to like about Fenway and outside of one lacklustre performance in the spring, she never runs a bad race. She generally peaks third-up over 2000 metres and she should get a lovely run just behind the speed with regular hoop Blake Shinn in the saddle. The High Chaparral filly will need to run a new career best to win and she has probably found her right price.
Analysis
I am very keen on Bow Creek here. He was outstanding in the Peter Young Stakes and he looks set to reach a new peak in the Australian Cup that will prove very difficult to beat.
The best roughie in the race is Happy Trails. He hasn’t been at his best in his past four starts, but his run before that was nothing short of outstanding and he normally produces his best over the 2000 metres at Flemington.