There is no doubt that The BMW is not as strong a race as it once was, but the 2016 edition of the Group 1 event is an extremely intriguing affair.
The Australian Cup is set to be the key form reference for The BMW and there is question marks over the form coming out of that race due to the slow speed in the early stages of the race, while Mongolian Khan is on the quick back-up following his improved performance in the Ranvet Stakes last weekend.
Will Preferment add a fourth Group 1 victory to his racing resume or can Our Ivanhowe finally claim a maiden race win in Australia?
Our Ivanhowe
Our Ivanhowe is yet to record a race win in Australia, but this is a perfect race for him. The two best performances of his career to date were over 2400 metres in Germany and those runs were at a rating that is more than high enough to win this race. He was not suited by the terribly slow early tempo on the Australian Cup, but he is still heading in the right direction and last preparation he peak third-up in the Caulfield Cup. Our Ivanhowe is a horse that appreciates the sting out of the ground and he will get just that on Saturday after the rain that has hit Sydney during the week. He ticks every box heading into this race and for mine he is the horse to beat.
Who Shot Thebarman
Who Shot Thebarman will relish the step-up to 2400 metres in The BMW this weekend. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
Who Shot Thebarman had excuses when he was outsprinted in the Sky High Stakes last start and he reaches his right distance here. He ran an outstanding race in this race last year and he produced a career best performance over this distance when he demolished a quality field in the Zipping Classic. The seven-year-old has probably found his right price at about $9, but he needs to be included in all exotic bets and I expect him to finish in the first four.
Almoonqith
Almoonqith failed to beat home a horse in the Australian Cup, but you can’t blame him for that based on the way that race was won. He is heading in the right way this preparation and the step-up to 2400 metres will suit, but based on his profile I expect him to require another run before he is ready to perform at his very best- especially after a soft run in the Australia Cup. I expect him to hit the line strongly here in a nice little trial for the Sydney Cup.
Grand Marshal
Grand Marshal is another horse that will appreciate the step-up in trip, but he is still probably looking for more ground. I expect him to find the line well in a similar performance to his Caulfield Cup run in the spring, but the Sydney Cup is clearly his main target and I don’t think he is sharp enough to win over this trip at weight-for-age.
Arab Dawn
Arab Dawn hit the line very strongly to win the Parramatta Cup in his second race start in Australia, but he was disappointing in the Canberra Cup. He gives the impression that he will be better suited over 2400 metres, but this is a much tougher race and he would have to improve significantly on his previous best to reach a level that is strong enough to win this race.
Mongolian Khan
Mongolian Khan has the chance to return to winning form for the first time since the 2016 Caulfield Cup. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
There were questions over whether Mongolian Khan had come up following his first-up performance in the Chipping Norton Stakes, but he was much better in the Ranvet Stakes last weekend. The quick back-up is not a problem as he did exactly that when he won the Caulfield Cup last preparation and trainer Murray Baker is the master of getting horses to peak in their grand final. Mongolian Khan has rating figures from both the Ladbrokes Caulfield Stakes and the Caulfield Cup that are more than good enough to win this race and he has to be considered one of the leading chances. Whether he can return to his best this weekend is the question and the $5 currently on offer is probably the right price.
Preferment
Preferment is currently a clear favourite in The BMW betting markets following his controversial win in the Australian Cup. I was keen to oppose Preferment in the Australian Cup and it took a brilliant ride from Hugh Bowman, poor tactics from the majority of his rivals and a questionable decision from the stewards to get him the win. There is no doubt that he is a horse with plenty of talent, but I believe he is just below Mongolian Khan and Our Ivanhowe at their best and I can’t get him anywhere near as short as his current quote. He won the Victoria Derby as an early three-year-old, but his two subsequent runs at 2400 metres or above have been poor and trainer Chris Waller now admits that the son of Zabeel may be at his best over 2000 metres. I am more than happy to oppose at his current price.
Storm The Stars
Storm The Stars was well-backed in the lead-up to the Ranvet Stakes, but he was one of the first horses beaten and he finished at the tail of the field. It has been well documented how good his form in the United Kingdom is and all his best form over there was at 2400 metres, but based on his last start effort you have to question whether he has acclimatized to Australian conditions. The quick back-up and the step-up to 2400 metres might be what he needs and I am willing to give him another chance at $26.
Rising Romance
Rising Romance has not recorded a race win in Australia since she took out the 2014 Australian Oaks. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia
Rising Romance has become a tricky horse to assess as she continues to run well, but is has been a very long time since she has won. The talented mare has gone in the right direction this preparation and the two best performances of her career have been over 2400 metres, but she struggled in two starts over this trip in the spring. It would not surprise me if she ran a big race, but I have her a length or two behind the leading chances at her best and $8.50 is probably around her right price.
Montaigne
Montagine is the x-factor in The BMW field and it is very typical of Anthony Cummings to back him up in The BMW. This is still Montaigne’s maiden racing campaign, but he remarkably still continues to improve every time that he goes to the races and the 2400 metres will not be a problem. He gets some weight from his rivals here, but he still needs to find a couple of lengths if no more to match the level of Our Ivanhowe, Mongolian Khan and Preferment and I’m not sure he has that much left in him at this stage of his preparation.
Analysis
I am very keen on Our Ivanhowe in The BMW and I am confident that he can go to a new level and record his maiden race win in Australia – he just has so many factors in his favour and the current price on offer is excellent value.
Mongolian Khan is the main danger for mine and I am keen to save on the Caulfield Cup winner, while Storm The Stars is worth a small each-way bet at his current price.
I am happy to ignore Preferment at his current price, but he is obviously one of the best winning chances and if he gets the trip will be right in the finish.