The Championships Day 1 Betting Plan

Astern produced a quality performance to win the Silver Slipper Stakes first-up, but he didn’t have a great deal of luck from the gate in the Golden Slipper and he tired late. Even though it was a tough run I still expect him to take plenty of benefit out of the race and I think the drop back in trip to 1100 metres will suit. His Silver Slipper Stakes performance is easily the highest rated effort in this field and he is clearly the horse to beat. El Divino was good first-up and he has been well-backed, but he would be double this price if he wasn’t related to Winx.

4 Units Astern

Odyssey Moon has been ticking over nicely in his two race starts for Robert Smerdon and he should be able to peak third-up over a mile here. He has the highest peak rating in this field and he is going to get a dream run into the race with Blake Shinn in the saddle. Data Point was outclassed in the Royal Randwick Guineas, but the figures out of that race were good and I like the fact that he has already had a run at a mile. I’m keen to keep him on side. Queen Of The Wands is easily the best roughie in this race and is big overs at $14. She was competitive in the city last preparation and she has run good time in her two wins this preparation.

3 Units Odyssey Moon

2 Units Data Point

1 Unit Queen Of Wands

Libran continues to improve as he steps up in distance and I was very impressed with the way that he put away his rivals in the final stages of the Manion Cup. He looks set to hit a new peak rating over 2600 metres and he will reach a level that can’t be matched by the majority of his rivals here in his final lead-up to the Sydney Cup. Auvray failed to fire last start, but I am keen to give him another chance at a good price here. He found the line strongly first-up and his best form in Europe was over extended staying trips. He is the only horse that has the upside to beat Libran and he is worth the gamble at $9.

6 Units Libran

2 Units Auvray

Clearly Innocent is a clear favourite in The Country Championships Final and he is a horse with plenty of talent, but he will end up jumping from barrier one and that is going to prove very tricky in a big field. Barrier one at Royal Randwick has been poison in recent months and Tommy Berry is not a jockey I have a great deal of trust in to get the job done. I have no knock on his talent, but I can’t get Clearly Innocent anywhere near as short as $2.40. This is not a race that I am overly keen to get too invested in, but I will have a small bet on both Pera Pera and All Summer Long at decent odds. They have the form hoops on their back and have both produced figures that are capable of winning this race

1 Unit Pera Pera

1 Unit All Summer Long

This is a very open betting race and there are a multitude of winning chances. Secret Agenda tired late to finish seventh in the Newmarket Handicap, but she returns to a more appropriate grade this weekend. Any sting out of the ground is a big positive for her and her peak rating is superior to any other horse in this field. Egyptian Symbol continues to run good races without winning and I understand why she has come up favourite, but I can’t get her as short as her current price because she will simply need too much luck in running to win. Perignon produced a flat effort second-up, but was able to bounce back third-up, so she is definitely over the odds at $9. The other horse that could bounce back here is Tempt Me Not, who has been given a barrier trial between runs and will benefit from the wider barrier draw.

3 Units Secret Agenda

2 Units Perignon

1 Unit Tempt Me Not

The Sires Produce Stakes has lacked quality in recent years, but this race is set to be an absolute ripper. I earmarked Yankee Rose as a perfect Sires Produce Stakes candidate following her first two race wins and I could not have been more impressed with her performance in the Golden Slipper. To do that first-up is remarkable and she will only improve over 1400 metres here. She is clearly the horse to beat and I am very keen at the current price.

Seaburge looks like a horse with limitless potential and I loved the way he found the line in the VRC Sires Produce Stakes. The fact that he has already been there and done it over 1400 metres is a big positive and he has the upside required to win this race.

Detective is yet to record a race win, but he has only been beaten by some high quality juveniles. I liked the way he toughed it out on the speed at Flemington on Super Saturday and he will be tough to get past again here.

6 Units Yankee Rose

2 Units Seaburge

1 Unit Detective

This is Tarzino’s race to lose. He hit a new career peak to take out the Rosehill Guineas last start and his previous best performance was over 2500 metres in the Victoria Derby. He showed plenty of tactical versatility to settle right on the speed in the Rosehill Guineas and that basically makes him bombproof here. The class horse wins the Australian Derby the majority of the time and there is no doubt that he is the best three-year-old stayer going around at the moment.

Jameka is a very tough filly and I expect her to run another big race, but I’m not sure whether she has the upside to turn-the-tables on Tarzino here. The main danger in my eyes is Tally. The Godolphin-trained galloper has the upward ratings spiral that you like to see from a horse ahead of a race like the Australian Derby and I loved the way he savaged the line in the Alister Clarke Stakes. I’m not sure whether he is a good enough to beat Tarzino, but I expect him to finish in the placings.

10 Units Tarzino

2 Units Tarzino, Tally Quinella

1 Unit Tarzino, Tally, Jameka Trifecta

The Group 1 sprints have already produced a number of surprising results this season and this is set to be one of the most intriguing races of the afternoon. Exosphere was far from disgraced when fourth in the Newmarket Handicap and he was definitely caught in the worst part of the track. I’m still not sure that he handles the Flemington straight and his best performance came over this track and distance in the Roman Consul Stakes. This is his chance to show that he is right up there with the best sprinters in Australia and his barrier trial suggests that he is ready to go. I am happy to give him another chance here.

Chautauqua is obviously the main danger and his best form is obviously good enough to win this race, but I can’t get him as short as his current quote on offer. I really didn’t like the way that The Quarterback ran past him in the Newmarket Handicap and he always needs everything to go his way to win.

The two outsiders that appeal at very good odds are Flamberge and Fast ‘N’ Rocking. Flamberge has done nothing wrong to win both the Oakleigh Plate and the William Reid Stakes, but he is still $19 here. He will be the beneficiary if Exosphere and Chautauqua don’t perform at their best. Fast ‘N’ Rocking was excellent in the William Reid Stakes and he finished fourth in this race last year. $51 is well over the odds and the $11.10 for him to finish in the placings is up there with the best bets in the race.

5 Units Exosphere

1 Unit Flamberge

1 Unit Fast ‘N’ Rocking To Place

Winx is the mare of the moment and she is set to start the Doncaster Mile as the short-priced Doncaster Mile favourite in almost the last century. I thought that she could be vulnerable in the George Ryder Stakes, but she cruised up effortlessly coming around the turn and she proved far too strong for her rivals in the final stages of the race. She has shown this preparation that she can win from just about everywhere and she really is thrown in at the weights here. It is very tough to see her getting beaten.

Kermadec finished a gallant second behind Winx in the George Ryder Stakes and he could be the big beneficiary if something goes amiss with her stablemate. He won the Doncaster Mile last year on a soft track and his record over a mile is nothing short of outstanding. Turn Me Loose was very disappointing in the Doncaster Mile, but I am keen to give him another chance here. Opie Bosson tried to fight him in the George Ryder Stakes and if he lets him roll along in front here I am confident that he can finish in the placings.

10 Units Winx

1 Unit Kermadec

1 Unit Each-Way Turn Me Loose

1 Unit Winx, Kermadec, Turn Me Loose Trifecta

This is a very weak edition of the Adrian Knox Stakes and I don’t expect any horse from this race to be a legitimate contender in the Australian Oaks next weekend. Sacred Eye failed to fire last start in the Phar Lap Stakes, but that was a slowly-run race and I am happy to give her another chance here. Her ratings are superior than anything that any other horse in this race has produced and she has the benefit of Hugh Bowman in the saddle.

2 Units Sacred Eye