The Sydney Cup is the true staying test of the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival and it is one of four Group 1 events that will be held at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
This is far from a stellar edition of the Sydney Cup, but it is still an interesting betting race and the market is dominated by the Chris Waller-trained trio of Who Shot Thebarman, Libran and Grand Marshal.
Will Waller trio fight out the finish or is there an upset in the offering? I have analysed the chances of all 11 Sydney Cup runners and come up with the horses to beat in the Group 1 event.
Who Shot Thebarman
Who Shot Thebarman was only narrowly denied by Preferment in The BMW. Photo by: Steve Hart
Who Shot Thebarman has had an ideal preparation for the Sydney Cup and he has improved every time that he has been seen at the races this campaign. He hit a new career peak when he finished a close second behind Preferment in The BMW and he is obviously one of the leading contenders. The BMW is not always the best form guide for the Sydney Cup and he was unable to get the job done in the race last year, but you can’t rule him out here and he deserves to be one of the leading contenders.
Almoonqith
Almoonqith is a proven performer over 3200 metres and his victory in the Sandown Cup over this trip last year was full of merit. He has been unable to reach that level at this stage of his autumn preparation, but he had genuine excuses in the Australian Cup and he should now be close to his peak fitness. The wet track is some concern, but he is a horse that appeals at his current quote of $10.
Grand Marshal
Grand Marshal outstayed Who Shot Thebarman to win the Sydney Cup last year at big odds and he has a great chance to do it again this weekend. He has followed a different path to the Sydney Cup this year, but he is arguably racing in career best form and his third place finish in the BMW produced the highest rating of his career. Chris Waller has always been confident that he would not hit his peak until he stepped up to 3200 metres and there is no doubt that he will be tough to hold out in the final stages of the race. He will be right in the finish.
Libran
Libran has the chance to record a fourth straight victory in the 2016 Sydney Cup at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Photo by: Steve Hart
Libran is the x-factor in the Sydney Cup and he has been a very profitable horse for punters that have followed him this campaign. He only just got the job done in the Chairman’s Handicap last weekend, but there was still plenty of merit in the performance as they went along at a crawl and he was easily the strongest horse in the final stages of the race, so the 3200 metres looks as though it will suit him right down to the ground. He is on a progressive spiral, the Chairman’s Handicap often proves a superior lead-up and at the weights he is the horse to beat here. I have him on top.
Auvray
His first-up performance was good, but he has been unable to replicate that since. His best form in Europe came over 3200 metres and it really would not surprise to see him improve sharply here. He is probably the only roughie in the race that has the upside to win the Sydney Cup and he is not a bad small each-way bet at his current odds.
Destiny’s Kiss
Destiny’s Kiss has won over 3200 metres, but it was in a much weaker race than this. There was some merit in his performance behind Sir John Hawkwood in the Sky High Stakes, but he doesn’t have the improvement in him to win a race like this one.
Gallante
There has been plenty of support for Gallante in Sydney Cup betting markets and he produced his best performance since arriving in Australia when he finished third behind Libran in the Manion Cup. He has never previously raced over 3200 metres, but he gives the impression that he will appreciate the step-up in trip and the Macedon Lodge team know exactly what it takes to have a horse winning over two miles. He needs to produce a new career peak to win this race, but if the money continues to come for him I am keen to keep him onside.
Café Society
Café Society had every possible chance to record a maiden win in Australia in the Chairman’s Handicap after taking up the running at a very slow tempo and Zac Purton timed his run to perfection, but he was still unable to get the job done. I can’t see him turning-the-tables on Libran here, who was much stronger on the line last start.
Like A Carousel
Like A Carousel finished a gallant third behind Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman in the 2015 edition of the Sydney Cup. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia
Like A Carousel finished third in the Sydney Cup last year and all his best performances have been over 3200 metres, but he was very flat in the Adelaide Cup and this is a much tougher race. I am happy to leave him out here.
Dee I Cee
He was very poor in the Chairman’s Handicap and it would take a mammoth effort to turn that around here. He simply isn’t good enough at this stage of his career to win a race of this quality.
Bayanova
Bayanova is a progressive galloper and he won well at Sandown last start, but this race looks a touch beyond him.
Analysis
This is a very tricky betting race and I will not be getting too invested in it. I have nothing but respect for Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal and they could very well fight out the finish but I can’t them as short as their current quotes.
I have followed Libran throughout this preparation and I am not going to get off now. I love the way he savaged the line last start and the Chairman’s Handicap is often a better lead-up to the Sydney Cup than the Chairman’s Handicap.
I’m keen to keep Almoonqith and Auvray on side, while I will be carefully watching all the betting moves for Gallante.