The 2016 edition of the Doomben Cup had drawn a fairly uninspiring field of ten horses, but it is still a very interesting betting race and the market suggests that just about any horse can win the Group 1 event.
Hauraki is currently on top of Doomben Cup betting markets, but there is very little between him and his stablemate It’s Somewhat as well as Volkstok’n’barrell, Noble Protector and Our Ivanhowe.
Can Godolphin claim the Group 1 or will there be a minor Doomben Cup upset?
Volkstok’n’barrell
Volkstok’n’barrell will have the chance to record another Group 1 victory in the Rosehill Guineas. Photo by: Steve Hart
Volkstok’n’barrell returned to Australia with a flat performance in the Doncaster Mile, but he made up plenty of ground late to finish third in the Hollindale Stakes. That performance was still well below the level he performed at in the Bonecrusher New Zealand Stakes at Ellerslie, so he still has plenty of scope to improve. The best performances of his career have generally come over 2000 metres and if he can hit his peak rating figures he will be right in this race.
Hauraki
Hauraki looked as though he had the race won at the 200 metre mark in the Hollindale Stakes, but he refused to run past Leebaz. He may have the highest recent rating in this field – from his second place finish behind The United States in the Ranvet Stakes – but he has not recorded a race win for over a year and he now has a reputation as a non-winner. He has James McDonald aboard, but barrier one is not ideal and I can’t get him as short as his current price.
Our Ivanhowe
I have given Our Ivanhowe plenty of chances in Australia, but he continues to let me down and I am running out of patience. He is a horse that is clearly feeling his feet at the moment and he was found lame after The BMW. Our Ivanhowe is definitely struggling with the firm tracks in Australia and unless there is some rain in Brisbane he may struggle. In saying that, his best European form is definitely good enough to win this race and if the race does come he can’t be ruled out.
Leebaz
Leebaz returned to form with a tough victory in the Hollindale Stakes. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
Leebaz produced arguably the best performance of his career to win the Hollindale Stakes last start, but he did that last year and flopped in the Doomben Cup. He is drawn to be able to take up the running in a race that looks devoid of any real speed and he showed in the Hollindale Stakes that he can prove very tough to run down. He is an inconsistent galloper, but he maps to get one of the best runs of the race and he might be a touch of overs at his current price of $12.
It’s Somewhat
It’s Somewhat had no luck whatsoever in the Hollindale Stakes. He was three wide throughout and was checked a couple of times in the straight, but he was still strong on the line. Before that he had beaten Hauraki home in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and there was plenty of merit in his Ajax Stakes and Neville Sellwood Stakes victory. He has drawn awkwardly again and he is mapped to be drawn wide again, but he is among the leading chances once again.
Messene
Messene finally returned to winning form in the Wagga Wagga Cup last start and he was deserving of that win following a number of tough efforts during the spring. Normally you would consider the step-up in class from a Wagga Wagga Cup to a Doomben Cup to be far too great, but sadly that isn’t really the case this year. The ratings he produced in races like the Sky High Stakes and Neville Sellwood Stakes would put him right in this race and he is another horse that maps to get a very good run. He is another horse that is a touch of overs.
Maurus
There has been some early money for Maurus and he is a progressive gelding with scope to improve, but he is yet to produce a performance that indicates he is capable of winning this race. Barrier 10 with Blake Spriggs aboard is definitely tricky and he would need to hit a clear new career peak to win this race.
Spiritjim
He didn’t really do a great deal in the Hollindale Stakes, but he is sure to have taken plenty of improvement out of the run in what was his Australian racing debut. He is the x-factor in this race as his European form would put him right in the race, but whether he has acclimatized to Australian conditions quickly enough is the issue. The market has kept him safe at his current price, but if he does drift then a saver would not be out of line.
Noble Protector
Noble Protector has the chance to score a maiden Group 1 victory in the Doomben Cup. Photo by: Adrienne Bicknell
Noble Protector looked as though she could develop into a genuine Cox Plate contender, but she didn’t come up in the spring. She hasn’t won a race this preparation, but there was a fair bit to like about her Queen Of The Turf Stakes effort and she trialed well at Cranbourne on May 9. She is unproven over 2000 metres and I still think that she will need to improve on that Queen Of The Turf Stakes effort, but it wouldn’t surprise to see her win a big race.
Lady Le Fay
Lady Le Fay produced a new career best performance to finish second behind Ecuador in the Lord Mayor’s Cup, but that is still below the level that will be required to win this race. I am not sure that she has the improvement to win this race at this stage of her career.
Analysis
This is a very tricky race to analyse as there are so many winning chances.
I am more than happy to oppose Hauraki again and Volkstok’n’barrell and It’s Somewhat are definitely good chances, but they look to have found their right price.
The Team Hawkes duo of Messene and Leebaz are going to get an easy time of it right on the speed and they are the two horses that appeal at their current prices.
That are both tough gallopers that are difficult to run down and as long as they don’t fight each other in the early stages then they will be in the race for a very long way.