2016 Doomben Cup Day Betting Preview

Interesting race to start the day. Wicked Intent returned to his best form with a second place finish behind the talented Divine Centuri last weekend and he is well-placed in this race. He has recorded three wins, a second and a third from his five race starts at this track and distance and Luke Dittman should be able to control the race from barrier five. There has already been early support, but he is still a good bet at his current price.

3 Units Wicked Intent

Astronomos is set to start this race as a clear favourite, but I can’t get him as short as his current quote. He will need luck in running at the right time from barrier one and he still has to take a step forward from his last start performance. Nothing else really appeals at their current prices and this is a race I’m keen to stay out of.

No Bets

This is a very open edition of the Hampden Stakes with plenty of winning chances. Bjorn Baker is the form trainer in the country and Baltic Whisper made a strong debut when second behind Legerity at Rosehill Gardens on May 7. If he takes a step forward from that performance he will be right in the finish. Redouble is another horse that comes from an in-form trainer and there was a lot to like about his debut performance. Oink is the best of the local chances and is probably a touch underrated at his current odds. He did not have a great deal of luck in the Ken Russell Memorial Classic and arguably should have won. I am happy to back all three of these horses and take on both Jericho and Archives.

2 Units Baltic Whisper

2 Units Redouble

1 Unit Oink

This is another very open race. I am not keen to get too heavily involved. But Perignon does stand out as the value runner in this field. Perignon was poor in the PJ Bell Stakes and outclassed in the All Aged Stakes, but her first-up victory in the Light Finger Stakes was excellent and she always races fresh. Her best is good enough to win this and she is worth a gamble at her current price of $7.

2 Units Perignon

This is another very interesting race. Charmed Harmony should cross the field to take up the running and he will prove tough to run down. He is a horse that improves the further he gets into his racing preparation and he is a perfect Doomben horse. You can’t knock the form of Religify and he looks like the main danger. This is a step-up in class, but he maps to get a perfect run in transit and he is a proven winner. Happy to save on him at the price.

3 Units Charmed Harmony

1 Unit Religify

This is a very competitive edition of The Roses and is one of the most exciting races on the card. Imposing Lass just keeps on winning and I think that she can make it five wins on the trot. Jason Collett should be able to cross the field from the wide gate and if she is able to do that then she will prove very tough to run down. She is a tough as they come and I still think she has improvement in front of her. The value selection is clearly Look To The Stars. This is her first opportunity at 2000 metres, but $18 is a huge price for a filly that is coming off a very impressive win in the Princess Stakes.

I have plenty of respect for the likes of Self Esteem, Chandana. Falkenbeerg and Ambience, but I think they have found their right prices.

4 Units Imposing Lass

1 Unit Each Way Look To The Stars

This is far from the strongest edition of the Doomben Cup and it is actually one of the worst betting races on the Doomben card. Hauraki is currently a clear favourite, but I can’t possibly back him at his current price. He hasn’t won for over 12 months and he had every possible chance to end that drought in the Hollindale Stakes last start.

His stablemate It’s Somewhat was arguably the run of the race in the Hollindale Stakes after being trapped wide throughout. Before that he beat Hauraki home in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and he can definitely win this race, but he has drawn awkwardly once again and he seems to have found his right price.

I feel a bit sick in saying it, but it is the Team Hawkes duo of Leebaz and Messene that actually represent the best value in this field. Leebaz was very tough in the Hollindale Stakes and this race is no tougher. He will be right on the pace once again and could take some running down.

The step-up in class from a Wagga Wagga Cup to a Doomben Cup would normally prove too great, but this is a very weak edition of the Doomben Cup and he Messene maps to get the run of the race. There is actually plenty of substance around his form this preparation and he is a legitimate winning chance.

1 Unit Each Way Messene

1 Unit Leebaz

This is easily the best race on this card and it could be the best race of the entire carnival. Luck in running could be crucial and two of the leading chances in the form of Takedown and Counterattack are both drawn in the car park. It may not be as big an issue for Takedown as he has the early speed that will be required to cross this field and if he is able to do that he will be very tough to run down. He was excellent in the Gold Coast Guineas and I think he will improve stepping up to 1400 metres. Counterattack has proven a frustrating horse for connections this preparation and he will need a masterful ride from James McDonald from his wide gate, but I still think he is capable of winning a big race this campaign and I can’t leave him out.

2 Units Takedown

2 Units Counterattack