The 2016 edition of the Queensland Oaks is set to be one of the most anticipated in the recent history of the race as it will be the first Group 1 event held on the new Eagle Farm track.
There is no horse the quality of Winx in this field, but this is an incredibly open race and it is set to be one of the most intriguing events of the entire Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival.
You can make a case for just about every horse in this field and you can find my thoughts on each runner below!
Update:
The 2016 Queensland Oaks has been postponed to Stradbroke Handicap Day at Eagle Farm this weekend due to the abandonment of last Saturday’s meeting.
The field and analysis remains the same.
Ambience
Ambience hit a new career peak to finish second behind Sofia Rose in the Australian Oaks and that level of performance would put her right in this race, but she was very plain in The Roses. That performance was indicative of a horse that has gone over the top and it is hard to see her bouncing back from that effort. The wide draw doesn’t help, but she will likely get back anyway.
Chabaud
There will be no horse in this race with more miles in their leg than Chabaud, but she shows no signs of slowing down. She has been up since December last year, but there was plenty of merit in her last start win in the South Australian Fillies Classic and she was far from disgraced in the Australian Oaks. She is far from the worst chance in this race and she represents a bit of value at her current odds of $13.
Kebede
She produced easily the best performance of her career to date to win The Roses and she is a horse with a very progressive profile that could hit a rating figure that is good enough to win this race. Kebded got the perfect run in transit last start and I would normally hold that against her going forward, but she maps to get the same run again. The only issue could be the potential of a wet track this weekend as trainer Matthew Dunn is adamant that she needs a firm surface to perform at her best.
Imposing Lass
Imposing Lass had her winning run ended in The Roses, but she was still extremely tough and she plugged on bravely to finish third after doing plenty of work in the early stages of the race. She has drawn better for the Queensland Oaks, but she will still need to find a couple of lengths of improvement to win this race. There is every chance that she can do that and she is bred to be able to handle a wet track.
Beluga Blue (Scratched)
Beluga Blue has been sent to Queensland after credible performances in both the Australasian Oaks and the South Australian Fillies Classic. She is a genuine stayer that will have no problems running out the trip strongly, but I don’t think that she is good enough to turn-the-tables on the likes of Chabaud or Ashlee Marie.
Update:
Beluga Blue has been scratched from the Queensland Oaks due to a leg issue.
Sebring Sally
Sebring Sally almost recorded a huge upset in The Roses in what was easily the best performance of her racing career to date. This was clearly a massive spike performance and she has not performed at that level before, but she is one horse that has been well supported early and looks as though she will be able to run out a strong 2400 metres.
Self Esteem
Self Esteem is another filly that has plenty of racing under her belt, but she is as tough as they come. Her ratings have been going backwards since she finished fourth behind Single Gaze in the Vinery Stud Stakes, but she will make her own luck on the speed and will run out the trip strongly. I am not sure that she is good enough to win, but she can finish top five.
Alaskan Rose
Alaskan Rose has been somewhat of a disappointment during her racing career to date and she doesn’t give me the indication that she is crying out for 2400 metres. She was never able to get into the race when she finished 11th in the Australian Oaks and her performance in The Roses was no better. $31 is about her right price.
Queen Of Wands
Queen Of Wands has gone backwards each start since she came to Queensland and she was woeful in The Roses. It is tough to see her turning it around at this stage of her campaign.
Dawnie Perfect
Dawnie Perfect was the most visually impressive performance in The Roses as she came from last to finish just behind the leading Group in what looked a perfect prep run for the Queensland Oaks. There was a lot to like about that effort, but it is tough to have any faith in a filly that has recorded just one win in her 13 race starts. She does have the right profile for the race, but there are still a number of question marks and I can’t get her as short as $8.
Ashlee Marie
Ashlee Marie is a much better horse than her odds of $51 suggest. She would need to produce a clear career peak to win this race, but I like the fact that she has already had two runs under her belt at 2400 metres and she was rock solid in the South Australian Fillies Classic. She will make her own luck from the inside barrier with Darren Gauci in the saddle and she has previously performed well in the wet. She is big overs.
Falkenberg
Falkenberg has been kept very safe in Queensland Oaks betting markets and I am struggling to see why. She made up good ground late in the Gold Coast Bracelet, but she did not do a great deal in The Roses and she didn’t hit the line like I would like to see from a horse that is stepping up to 2400 metres for the first time. I have plenty of respect for Team Snowden and she could well win, but I think she is poison odds at her current price.
Tap This
The other Team Snowden-trained runner in this race was given what was supposed to be a soft kill at the Gold Coast last week, but she was only just able to get the job. She still needs to find plenty of improvement to be a factor in this race and she will need some luck from what is a tricky draw. I couldn’t have her at the current odds.
Tavi Bay
Tavi Bay is only lightly raced, but she is a horse with plenty of upside. There was a lot to like about the way that she found the line last start at Caulfield and she gives the impression that she will relish the step-up in trip. This is a very big step-up in class and I couldn’t back her at the current price, but she does have a bit of x-factor about her.
Romantic Maid
Romantic Maid is another horse in this field that has a great deal of upside. The form coming out of her last start win at Royal Randwick has been very solid and she is sure to have taken plenty of benefit from the run. She is a proven winner that is bred to run out a strong 2400 metres, but she will need a touch of luck from the draw. She is right in this race.
Dulverton
Dulverton has done absolutely nothing in three race starts this preparation and she would need to find considerable improvement to be a factor in this race. She should be at double these odds.
Zasorceress
Zasorceress heads into this race on the back of a maiden race win at the Gold Coast. This is obviously a big step-up in class, but she was competitive in the Adrian Knox Stakes during the spring. I don’t think that she is good enough to win, but it would not surprise me if she ran a big race
Mount Omei
Mount Omei is another filly that comes off a last start win. She hasn’t rated anywhere near high enough to win a race like the Queensland Oaks, but you have to respect Chris Waller and he wouldn’t be bringing her to the race if he did not think that she is a genuine chance.
Provocative
There has been plenty of hype around Kiwi filly Provocative, but she is yet to give me any indication that she should be at such short odds to win the Queensland Oaks. Her form in New Zealand was sound and she got the job done well at Ipswich last start, but the hype around her means that her price is definite unders.
Sahara Siren
Sahara Siren is the second emergency and she looks unlikely to earn a start. If she did run she would be far from the worst outsider in this race as she performed well in the Princess Stakes and has previously ran well on heavy going.
Meru
Meru has placed in just two of her ten race starts to date. Pat Carey has an excellent record in three-year-old staying races, but surely this is above him.
Zafiki
Zafiki is the fourth emergency for the Queensland Oaks and she is very unlikely to gain a start.
Analysis
This is an incredible open race and there are very few results in this race that would be genuine surprises. Because of this, the price on offer for the leading chances is a touch of unders across the board. My pick of the favourites is Imposing Lass, but she seems to have found her right price at the $7.50 mark.
One filly that does represent value at their current price is Chabaud and she outstayed her rivals to record an impressive win in the South Australian Fillies Classic last start. She will be the fittest horse in this race and that could prove to be a telling factor as the Eagle Farm track will likely be very race.
The best outsider in this race is Ashlee Marie. She comes out of the same race as Chabaud, but she is at the big price of $51.