2016 Australian Federal Election Betting Preview

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After the longest campaign in modern history the 2016 Australian Federal Election will finally take place on Saturday.

The polls suggest that we are heading for a fairly even contest, but the betting suggests otherwise and all the money has been for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition and they are dominant favourites to retain parliament.

The good news is that this isn’t the only election odds market that we have on offer – you can bet on the result of every single seat as well as a number of other very competitive markets.

I have analysed all the data ahead of the 2016 Australian Federal Election and below you can find my thoughts on our major markets as well as a number of the more interesting individual seats.

Overall

The Coalition has been very steady at the $1.10 mark for a number of weeks now and the majority of political experts believe that the instability caused by the Brexit vote has all but guaranteed the Coalition another term in government.

However, it is the result of the Brexit poll that makes me question whether the Coalition are as much of a sure thing as the betting suggests.

All the exit polls suggested that Remain would get home and there have been a number of high-profile poll misses in the past two years – most notably at the 2014 UK General Election and the 2015 Queensland State Election.

History is against Labor as no first-term government has ever been voted out in Australia and I can’t suggest a bet on them at their current price, but this result could be closer than expected.

Exact Election Result

This is arguably our most interesting betting market and it is highly competitive.

The Coalition to win 76-80 seats is favourite at a quote of $3 from Coalition to win 81-85 seats at $3.50, a Hung Parliament at $4, Coalition To Win 86-90 seats at $6.50 and Labor to win 76-80 seats at $7.

The Coalition currently holds 89 seats, Labor 57 seats, three seats are held by independents and the Greens hold the seat of Melbourne.

Of the 89 seats that the Coalition currently hold they have no chance of losing at the bare minimum 63, Labor are all but guaranteed to hang on to 52 seats and there will be at least three independents and a single green.

The big issue for Labor is when we get to the seats that are more than likely to head to the Coalition – once we factor in these seats that takes the Coalition count up to 79 seats and that means that the most realistic outcome is for the Coalition to end up with between 76 seats and 85 seats.

You could easily back both of these options and score a healthy profit, but the Coalition winning 79 or 80 seats seems like the most likely option, which makes the $3 on offer for Coalition 76-80 seats the right betting play.

Recommended Bet: Back Coalition 76-80 Seats @ $3

Green Seats

The Greens are expecting one of their largest votes in history at this election, but whether this equates to more seats remains to be seen.

The Greens picking up one seat is currently a favourite from two seats at $2.50, three or more seats at $6 and no seats at $41.

The Greens look to have Melbourne in the bag for the third election in a row and this market will likely come down to the seat of Batman as it is tough to see the Greens picking up any other seats.

Current betting suggests that the Greens are now a $2.10 chance to steal Batman from Labor and that means that there is a decent edge at the $2.50 that is currently available for the Greens to win two seats.

Recommended Bet: Back The Greens To Win Two Seats @ $2.50

Green Senate Seats

This is another very open betting market.

The Greens currently hold ten positions in the Senate, but nine Green Senate Seats is currently favourite at a quote of $3 from eight seats at $3.50, ten seats at $4.50 and seven seats at $6.

They are certain to pick-up one seat in New South Wales, one seat in Queensland, one seat in South Australia, two seats in Tasmania, one seat in Victoria and one seat in Western Australia.

That puts them at seven seats, but they are also in the hunt for additional seats in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.

At this stage it looks as though Labor will edge them for the extra seat in New South Wales and the large numbers of high-profile candidates in Queensland could make it difficult for them to pick up a second seat, but they do look to have the edge in Victoria for a second seat over Labor.

This would see them end up with eight senate seats and that is a good bet at the current quote of $3.50.

Recommended Bet: Back The Greens To Win Eight Senate Seats @ $3.50

Individual Seats

Northern Territory

Solomon

This seat is currently held by Country Liberal Party MP Natasha Griggs, but she now appears almost certain to lose this seat to Labor candidate Luke Gosling.

Recent polls indicate that Gosling currently holds a two-party preferred lead of over 20 points and Labor are an excellent bet to pick up this seat at a quote of $1.40.

Recommended Bet: Back Labor To Win @ $1.40

New South Wales

Eden Monaro

Eden Monaro is a Bellweather Seat in Australian Federal Politics and it has been won by the party that formed government at every election since 1972, but recent polls suggest that it could lose this status as Labor are now favourite to win back the seat.

This is somewhat of a surprise as redistribution in the seat was expected to help the Coalition and it would not surprise if this seat was closer than betting suggests, which makes the Coalition a good bet at their current price of $2.75.

Recommended Bet: Back Coalition To Win @ $2.75

Macarthur

Macarthur is another seat that Labor is expected to win from the Coalition.

A redistribution slashed the margin of sitting member Russell Matheson and the high local profile of Labor candidate Michael Freelander – who is a local paediatrician – is expected to get the ALP across the line.

This seat should swing to Labor and the $1.60 currently available is a good bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Labor To Win @ $1.60

Macquarie

This is another seat that Labor have in their sights and polling taken earlier in the week suggests that Susan Templeman will be able to take the seat off Louise Markus.

This seat looks like it could go either way in the lead-up to the election and the $2.40 that is on offer for a Labor victory is a good bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Labor To Win @ $2.40

Queensland

Capricornia

Michelle Landry won this seat for the Nationals at the latest election, but it has generally been a Labor seat and the party held the seat from Capricornia from 1998 to 2013.

Landry is not very popular locally – she recently told locals at a debate to ‘pipe down’ – and this is one of the seats in Queensland that Labor are very confident that they will be able to win back.

Labor need to win this seat to have any chance whatsoever of getting close to the Coalition and they are a good bet to take this seat at a quote of $1.60.

Recommended Bet: Back Labor To Win @ $1.60

South Australia

Hindmarsh

This seat is a genuine three-way contest as the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon team all have hopes of acquiring the seat that was picked up by the Coalition at the 2013 election.

Labor went into this campaign confident that they would be able to win back Hindmarsh due to the popularity of candidate Steve Georganas and they remain in the hunt, but there is a great unknown in this seat due to the presence of the Nick Xenophon Team.

The preferences that come from these voters are likely to be crucial and they really could go either way, which suggests that the $3 that is currently available for a Labor victory is definitely a bit of value.

Recommended Bet: Back Labor To Win @ $3

Mayo

This is arguably the most interesting seat at the entire election and it is definitely the best chance that the Nick Xenophon Team have of picking up a seat in the House Of Representatives.

You simply can’t underestimate the popularity of Xenophon in his home state and they are set to pick up a primary vote of somewhere near 38 percent, which would be enough to get them home if the majority of the preferences from Labor and the Greens end up going their way.

This looks highly likely and the Nick Xenophon Team are a fairly safe bet at $1.50.

Recommended Bet: Back Nick Xenophon Team @ $1.50

Victoria

Batman

This is another extremely interesting contest that the Greens are a genuine chance of winning.

There has been a surge of support for Greens candidate Alex Bhathal and current member and Labor Kingmaker David Feeney is on the nose with the electorate due to a number of gaffes during this campaign.

The Greens are a genuine chance of winning this seat, but there is no value at the current price of $1.90 when you can back the party to win two seats at a price of $2.50.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Western Australia

Cowan

This could end being the closest contest of the entire election and the market can’t separate the two major parties in current betting markets.

The seat is currently held by the Coalition through Like Simpkins, but it was held by Labor from 1998 to 2007 and the unpopularity of the Western Australian Liberal State Government could play a role.

Labor candidate Anne Aly has developed a high local profile and she has a genuine chance of becoming the first Muslim woman in Federal Parliament.

Recommended Bet: Back Labor To Win @ $1.87

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.