AFL Ladbrokes Lowdown

Ladbrokes Lowdown: AFL Round 19

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THE BRIEF

Given the ridiculously close nature of the top eight, matches between finals bound combatants can certainly be considered the old ‘eight point game’. We kick off with such a contest tonight and, while St Kilda might not currently be in the eight, tomorrow night’s Saints, Kangaroos clash could prove even more crucial to the finals make-up. With the exception of a couple of tough picks, the majority of the weekend looks straight forward for money making. 

THE BIG FIVE

  • $20k Geelong ($1.22) into Port Adelaide ($1.16) @ $1.41
  • $15k Collingwood +8.5 (v West Coast) @ $1.92
  • $10k Geelong -19.5 (v Bulldogs) @ $1.92
  • $5k North Melbourne -10.5 (v St Kilda) @ $1.92
  • $5k Geelong (v Bulldogs) @ $1.29

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Bulldogs were hit savagely by the injury bus last week and have lost some crucial players for tonight’s clash with the Cats. They do, however get some very handy players back, in the form of Luke Dahlhaus and Jake Stringer and there are some punters who are happy to snap up the $3.75 about the Bulldogs. Make no mistake, the weight of money is certainly with the Cats including that $20k multi with them and the Power as well as the $10k on them at the line.

TRAVEL SICK

West Coast haven’t travelled overly well this season and, having been an unconvincing winner at the MCG against Carlton a fortnight ago, punters don’t have a great deal of faith in them against the Magpies this weekend. While an 8.5 point outsider, Collingwood is definitely the best backed of the two teams in this one. The Eagles are at reasonable odds given the respective ladder positions, it is just a matter of whether you want to back them in away from home.

A SAINTLY RUN TO SEPTEMBER

The Saints kept their slim finals hopes alive with an upset win over the Bulldogs last week and should they knock of North Melbourne, the finals hopes will get fatter. Smart money this week has been for the Kangaroos in what will be Brent Harvey’s 427 game, the new AFL most games mark. If you’re an omen punter, you’d be on the Roos too, given they have never lost a Harvey milestone game. If they continue the form which they displayed in the final quarter against Collingwood last week, the $1.55 on offer looks very, very attractive.

PUNTING ON PURPLE FOR PAV

Speaking of milestones, Matthew Pavlich brings up game number 350 against the Swans and, for that reason, and surely that reason only, we have seen support for Dockers, mainly at the line, which opened 27.5 and is now into 24.5. The Swans have some strong inclusions and, given the class on all fronts, I am more than happy to take them in the head to head and even at the -24.5 mark. Fremantle aren’t as bad as its season would suggest, but the Swans are silk.

IS DON, IS BAD

Having been belted by Brisbane last week, it was more than a little surprising to see support for the Bombers at the line against a quality side like the Crows. That was early in the week and punters have rightly come to their senses now with all the love for Adelaide. With the head to head at $1.01 and $21, there is almost no interest in that market but the line is proving popular and, after getting into as ‘short’ as 59.5, it has blown back out again to 68.5. It’s biggest mark of the week.

BEST BACKED

  • Geelong
  • Collingwood
  • Port Adelaide

UNLOVED

  • Gold Coast
  • West Coast
  • Carlton
Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.