2016 Turnbull Stakes Day Preview

Early two-year-old races in Melbourne are always difficult punting affairs and trainers have no obligations to trial or jump-out their horses in public. This means that there are far too many unknowns in this race and I will be staying out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Benz has put together a very impressive winning record in Adelaide and he is a horse that has improved every time that he has been seen at the races. This is easily the toughest test that he has faced during his racing career to date, but he is a horse that still has plenty of scope to go to another level. I am willing to take the gamble that he is up to the level at his current quote of $5.

2 Units Benz

The UCI Stakes is always an interesting race heading towards feature events like the Ladbrokes Caulfield Classic and the Victoria Derby. This is a big step-up in trip for Throssell, but his two performances to date this preparation indicate that he is looking for more ground. He has run impressive closing sectionals in both his starts this campaign and he is sure to be flying home late. Murray Baker has an outstanding record when he brings horses to Melbourne and there is a lot to like about Highlad. He has recorded two wins from as many starts in New Zealand and there is little doubt that he will relish the step-up in trip. The wide draw could be an advantage as he will get back anyway and he has the benefit of Damien Oliver in the saddle.

1.5 Units Throssell

1.5 Units Highlad

Faatinah has developed into a high-quality sprinter. He returned to the races with an impressive victory down the Flemington straight in the Bobbie Lewis Quality and there is no reason that he can’t improve on that performance. The Nicconi gelding makes his own luck right on the speed and he will have every possible chance to make it two wins on the trot. He comfortable beat Under The Louvre last start and doesn’t need the luck in running like his main rival here.

2 Units Faatinah

The winner of The Bart Cummings receives ballot-exempt entry into the Melbourne Cup. Almandin is a dominant favourite following his win in the Harry White Classic, but I can’t get him anywhere near as short as his current quote. He did not beat a particularly strong field last start and before that his form was average. The value runner in this race is Almoonqith. He has failed to fire so far this preparation, but he had genuine excuses in the Naturalism Stakes. The Geelong Cup winner will relish the step-up in distance and he is the class horse in this race on his best form. $14 is well over the odds and he is a great each-way bet.

1 Unit Almoonqith

This is a very open edition of the Edward Manifold Stakes. There is no doubt that a Crown Oaks contender will emerge from this race and I think that could be Eleonora. She only beat a weak field on the synthetic track at Geelong last start, but there was plenty to like about the way that she ran through the line. She should only improve as she gets further up trip and she maps to get a dream run with Damien Oliver in the saddle.

1 Unit Eleonora

The Turnbull Stakes is all about Hartnell. His form during the 2016 Spring Racing Carnival to date has been nothing short of outstanding and he has produced two career peaks that are well clear of the rest of this field. The problem for Hartnell is that he has failed to fire in his three previous starts in Melbourne as have Godolphin as a whole. Since John O’Shea took over as Godolphin head trainer, the operation have not won a Group 1 event in Melbourne and a number of short-priced favourites have been beaten. Hartnell’s poor form in Melbourne has generally been put down to the firm tracks and the fact that there has been rain in Melbourne this week really does help his chances. I can’t knock his form heading into the Turnbull Stakes and I am willing to take the gamble that Godolphin will finally get the job done.

5 Units Hartnell

The Blazer Stakes is easily the toughest race on this card and you can make a case for just about every mare in this field. The Let’s Elope Stakes was the main lead-up and it was a complete lottery as have the majority of the mares races during the Spring Racing Carnival to date. It is tough to even know where to start in this race and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

It has been a while between wins for Federal, but he is a consistent performer and he should be right in this race. He was caught in the worst part of the track when he finished a close third in the Bill Ritchie Handicap and he will be a much fitter horse with that run under his belt. James McDonald will have a tricky decision to make from barrier 15, but with even luck in running he will be in the finish at the $6 currently on offer is juicy.

1 Unit Federal