The Thousand Guineas is one of four Group 1 events at Caulfield on Saturday and is set to be an extremely intriguing race.
Leading Sydney trainer Chris Waller has sent Foxplay to Melbourne and she is a clear favourite in betting from Flight Stakes winner Global Glamour, while there is a big gap to the rest of the field.
Can Foxplay or Global Glamour deliver Sydney another Group 1 win in Melbourne or will there be an upset at a big price? I have analysed all the entire Thousand Guineas field and you can find my thoughts on the chances of each galloper below!
Whispering Brook was very tough first-up in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes, but she was very late in the Thousand Guineas Prelude. There now has to be a big question mark over her ability to run out a strong mile and it is tough to see her rebounding off that effort to win the Thousand Guineas.
Missrock is heading in the right direction this preparation and she absolutely savaged the line in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, even though she did not have a great deal of luck in running. She will still need to find a couple of lengths improvement to hit a level good enough to win the Thousand Guineas, but she is a better chance than her place in the market suggests.
Global Glamour has the chance to complete the Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas Double. Photo by: Steve Hart
Global Glamour finally had some luck in running in the Flight Stakes and she took advantage to record an impressive victory. I had my doubts over her running out a strong 1600 metres, but she did the job well and there was plenty of merit in her performance. A repeat of that effort would have her right in this race and there is definite value at her current quote.
Foxplay is the horse to beat in the Thousand Guineas, but the question is whether you can get her as short as her current quote. She has had the measure of Global Glamour both times that they have clashed and the way she was able to pick herself off the ground after having no luck in the Tea Rose Stakes was most impressive. Foxplay maps to get a dream run into this race with Hugh Bowman in the saddle and she looks as though she will relish the step-up to a mile. She is worth of her position as such a clear favourite.
I Am A Star
I Am A Star was not beaten far in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, but she was no match for Foxplay and Global Glamour in the Furious Stakes in Sydney. That is one indicating that the Sydney form is much stronger than the Melbourne form and I couldn’t possibly have her in this race.
La Luna Rossa
La Luna Rossa is the biggest danger to the Sydney duo. She made her Australian racing debut with a fast-finishing second in the Thousand Guineas Prelude and she still has plenty of improvement in front of her. She is another that maps to get a lovely run in transit and it is no secret how much success that trainer Murray Baker has had in big Australian races. La Luna Rossa is well over the odds at $13 and is an excellent each-way bet.
Samara Dancer will need to bounce back to her best to have any chance in the Thousand Guineas. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
Samara Dancer did not have any luck in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, but she was entitled to do better in the final stages. She is a filly that is yet to show she is capable of staying up for a full preparation and it is tough to see her bouncing back here.
Legless Veuve produced easily the best performance of her racing career to date to win the Thousand Guineas Prelude. She did well to tough it out on the speed, but that victory was still a couple of lengths below the form of the Sydney fillies and I am not sure that she has the scope to improve.
Sword Of Light
Sword Of Light does not win out of turn, but she is a consistent filly. She has already been up for a long time and she is another that probably does not have any improvement left in her. She should finish in the first half of the field, but I don’t think she can win a Thousand Guineas.
Leotie is a progressive filly, but she has been a touch overhyped. She has done enough to win at both her past two starts, but she has not run any time in either and she would still need to improve significantly to have any chance in this race.
Sebring Dream will make her Group 1 debut in the Thousand Guineas. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
Sebring Dream finished in the pack in both the Atlantic Jewel Stakes and the Thousand Guineas Prelude and it is tough to see her turning-the-tables on her rivals from those races.
Harlow Gold has recorded two wins on the trot and she has the benefit of already having had a run over 1600 metres under her belt. The inside barrier draw makes it very tough for her to win as she will settle in the second half of the field and I can’t get as short as her current price, but she finds clear running she will be rattling home late in what is sure to be a lovely Crown Oaks trial.
Smart Amelia was good in the Furious Stakes, but most disappointing in the Reginald Allen Quality. That was a weak race and I am not willing to give her another chance in this race.
Peeking Duck beat home just the one runner in the Edward Manifold Stakes on Sunday and she is yet to show anything that indicates she can be competitive in this sort of race.
FromParis With Love
FromParis With Love also comes out of the Edward Manifold Stakes. She has just one placing from her seven race starts to date and she is outclassed in this race.