The 2016 Caulfield Cup is the first major of the Spring Racing Carnival and it is set to be an intriguing betting affair.
Jameka is a clear favourite following her victory in the Naturalism Stakes and Turnbull Stakes placing, but she will face plenty of competition against a number of talented European stayers.
Can Jameka deliver for the punters or will there be a Caulfield Cup upset? I have analysed every horse in the 2016 Caulfield Cup field and below you can find my thoughts on every single horse in the field.
Preferment
Preferment will carry the top-weight in the 2016 Caulfield Cup. Photo by: Sarah Ebbett
Preferment bas been building steadily this preparation and he finished a credible fourth in the Turnbull Stakes, but he is yet to get anywhere near his career best performances. He meets Jameka worse at the weights from that run and she beat him by more than three and a half lengths. The wide barrier draw is not much of an issue as he will get back anyway, but he will probably need them to go hard early to have any chance late. He is tough to like on his current form.
Our Ivanhowe
Our Ivanhowe was a touch disappointing in the Turnbull Stakes and he has really struggled for consistency during his time in Australia. The big advantage that he has is that he is a proven performer at 2400 metres and he was a gallant third in this race last year. Our Ivanhowe is a horse that is more than capable of producing a spike rating on his day and because of that there is genuine value at his current price of $26.
Exospheric
Exospheric is a tricky horse to analyse. He looked like a star in the making when he won the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in April, but he failed to fire in the Hardwicke Stakes as a short-priced favourite. Exospheric was only slightly outclassed in both the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and Juddmonte International Stakes and this is a weaker race. It is tough to write off the combination of Damien Oliver and Lee Freedman, but he looks to have found his right price.
Scottish
Scottish is the main danger to Jameka and the best value runner in the 2016 Caulfield Cup. The Godolphin stayer is in a similar mould to their previous winner All The Good and he still has the scope to improve this preparation. He hit a new career peak to win the Strensall Stakes last start, he has previously beaten Exospheric and in his last start over 2400 metres he was second behind Highland Reel. He maps to get an absolutely dream run in transit and there is plenty of value at his current quote.
Sir Isaac Newton
Sir Isaac Newton is an inconsistent galloper. A repeat of his performances in both the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes as well as the Juddmonte International Stakes would put him right in this race, but he was extremely poor in the Irish Champion Stakes last start. Aidan O’Brien-trained horses have been a real mixed bag in Australia and he is probably the toughest horse in this field to access.
Tarzino
Tarzino has not raced at his best during the 2016 Spring Racing Carnival. Photo by: Steve Hart
Tarzino looked like the Caulfield Cup winner when he returned to the races with a fast-finishing eighth in the Makybe Diva Stakes, but he has done very little since. He had a nice run in transit in the Turnbull Stakes, but he was no match for Jameka and Tally late. Settling has been somewhat of an issue throughout his racing career and he doesn’t look like a horse that is screaming out for 2400 metres.
Almoonqith
Almoonqith is not the same horse that he was in the spring. He has been very poor in both the Naturalism Stakes and The Bart Cummings, which were both over suitable trips. It would require a massive turnaround of form for him to be a contender in the Caulfield Cup.
Sir John Hawkwood
There has been an early move for Sir John Hawkwood in Caulfield Cup betting and it is easy to see why. He has not missed the placings since October of last year and he has the benefit of already having had a tough run over 2400 metres. There was plenty of benefit in his victory in The Metropolitan after Blake Spriggs sent him to the front a long way from home and a similar ride would give him the best chance in this race. He is another that maps to get an outstanding run and he is a better price than the $16 chance suggests.
Articus
Articus is the horse at the top of Caulfield Cup betting that looks well under the odds. You have to represent the combination of Andreas Wohler and Australian Bloodstock, who have previously tasted success at the highest level in Australia, but his form in Europe is below the other European stayers in this field. He is a horse with the upside to improve, but I would still have him double his current price.
Tally
Tally will need some luck from the wide barrier draw in the 2016 Caulfield Cup. Photo by: Ultimate Racing Photos
Tally produced a new career peak to finish third in the Turnbull Stakes last start, but he was still no match for Jameka in the final stages of the race. His task was made much tougher by the extremely wide barrier draw and the race really doesn’t map particularly well for him – unless Brenton Avdulla elects to press forward. I don’t think he could beat Jameka anyway and the barrier just makes it tougher.
Jameka
Jameka is a clear favourite and it is easy to see why. She only has the four race wins on her resume, but she has performed at the highest level racing throughout her racing career. Jameka was excellent in the autumn, but she has gone to another level this spring. Her victory in the Naturalism Stakes was the best of her career to date and she lost no admirers when second behind Hartnell in the Turnbull Stakes. She clearly has the edge over the rest of the locals and there are the obvious unknowns about the internationals, but she is still the horse to beat.
Real Love
Real Love was no match for Jameka in the Naturalism Stakes, but she returned to her best form with her victory in the JRA Cup. She put a gap on the field that day and ran good time, but she surely still needs to find improvement to turn-the-tables on Jameka and she has always been a mare that races at slightly below the level required to win at the highest level.
Set Square
Set Square is a genuine stayer that will have no problems running out a strong 2400 metres, but whether she is good enough to win this race is the big question. There is no doubt that Jameka has the edge on her and the wide barrier draw makes things even tougher.
Big Memory
Big Memory has not recorded a race win in over two years. Photo by: Race Horse Photos Australia
Big Memory has not recorded a race win in over two years and he has run in much weaker races than the Caulfield Cup. He had every possible chance to win the Herbert Power Stakes last start and he wasn’t able to get the job done. He is not the same horse that he was two years ago.
Update: Big Memory has been scratched from the Caulfield Cup due to a hock inflammation.
Sacred Master
Sacred Master has flown under the radar in the lead-up to the Caulfield Cup, but he is not the worst lightweight chance. He hit a new career peak to win the Newcastle Gold Cup and he did hit the line strongly to finish fourth in The Metropolitan. I don’t think that he is good enough to win a Caulfield Cup, but I expect him to perform stronger than his current price suggests.
Fanatic
Fanatic won the New Zealand Oaks in the autumn – beating Sofia Rosa on protest – but she has never performed at anywhere near that level again. Her form this spring has been extremely average and there are much better light-weight chances.
Update: Fanatic has been scratched from the Caulfield Cup due to a spider bite.
Pemberley
It is remarkable that he is even in the Caulfield Cup considering that he was running at Warracknabeal and Murtoa just two and three starts ago. There was plenty to like about his performance in the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes and he is another that could run a sneaky race at big overs.
Go Dreaming
This is a dream come true for connections and she was fourth in the JRA Cup, but surely he isn’t good enough to finish in the first half of this field. It is good to see Katelyn Mallyon get an opportunity in a big Group 1.
De Little Engine
De Little Engine is the first emergency for the 2016 Caulfield Cup. He was far from disgraced in the Turnbull Stakes and he is a genuine stayer, but he has never given any indication that he is good enough to win at Group 1 level.
Update: De Little Engine has earnt a start in the Caulfield Cup following the scratching of Fanatic.
Vengeur Masque
Vengeur Masque is the second emergency for the 2016 Caulfield Cup and looks unlikely to get a start. He raced at Group 1 level before being sent to Australia and he is a progressive horse on the way up. He might develop into a Caulfield Cup contender in a year, but this has come around a bit too quick for him.
Update: Vengeur Masque has earnt a start in the Caulfield Cup following the scratching of Vengeur Masque.