It is finally here.
The Melbourne Cup is always the highlight of the Australian Racing Calendar and it is tough to find a more intriguing betting race anywhere in the world every single year.
The 2016 edition of the Melbourne Cup is a typically open affair and it is Cox Plate runner-up Hartnell that is a narrow favourite from Lexus Stakes winner Oceanographer and Caulfield Cup winner Jameka.
Can Hartnell deliver Godolphin a maiden win in the Melbourne Cup or will there be another Melbourne Cup upset? I have analysed every horse in the 2016 Melbourne Cup field and you can find my thoughts on all 24 runners below.
Big Orange
Big Orange ran an excellent fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year and it is fair to say that he has gone to another level in the past two months. He produced career best performances to take out both the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes as well as the Goodwood Cup. Big Orange makes his own luck right on the speed and he clearly does not have any problems running out a strong 3200 metres. He is one of the leading chances and he is great value at his current quote of $17.
Our Ivanhowe
Our Ivanhowe had no luck whatsoever in the Melbourne Cup last year and he is back for another crack at the race that stops a nation. The imported German stayer has been inconsistent since he arrived in Australia and he was flat in the Turnbull Stakes, but he was not a bad run in the Caulfield Cup. He probably needs a bit of rain to be a genuine winning chance, but there is a hit of value at his current price.
Curren Mirotic
Curren Mirotic is a very tough horse to analyse in the 2016 Melbourne Cup field. Japanese stayers have shown time and time again that they must be respected in these big races, but Curren Mirotic is a very inconsistent performer. A repeat of his performances in the past two editions of the Tenno Sho would put him right in the finish of this race, but that level of effort is few and far between. He is a veteran horse that is going getting any younger and he would need everything to go right in order to get the job done in this race.
Bondi Beach
Bondi Beach failed to fire in the Melbourne Cup last year, but co-owner Lloyd Williams is confident that he is a much better horse this time in. You have to respect Lloyd Williams, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, but Bondi Beach looks rock bottom odds at his current Melbourne Cup quote. He was only plain in both the Ballyroan Stakes and Enterprise Stakes in Ireland and he would need to produce a clear career best performance to win this race. I can’t get him anywhere near as short as his current price.
Exospheric
Exospheric made his Australian racing debut with a more than credible third behind Jameka in the Caulfield Cup and he is sure to have taken plenty of benefit from that performance. His career best performance came in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket earlier this year and he would likely need to run up to that level to win the Melbourne Cup. There is no doubt that he is capable of doing that, but he is a tough horse to trust and another galloper I can’t get as short as his current price.
Hartnell
Hartnell is currently on top of our 2016 Melbourne Cup betting market and he is deserving of that position. He did not perform at his best when he was given a beating by Winx in the Cox Plate, but before that he produced three high-rating performances in the Chelmsford Stakes, Hill Stakes and Turnbull Stales. Hartnell has previously won over 3200 metres in England and he is definitely a more relaxed horse this time in. He has a similar profile to recent Melbourne Cup winners Green Moon and Fiorente and he is one of the horses to beat.
Who Shot Thebarman
Who Shot Thebarman is back for a third tilt at the Melbourne Cup after finishing third behind Protectionist in 2014. He was a touch disappointing in a slowly-run The Metropolitan, but he relished the extra speed in the Moonee Valley Cup to finish second behind Grand Marshal. He will have no problems running out the trip strongly, but winning a Melbourne Cup is probably a touch beyond him at this stage of his career.
Wicklow Brave
There is no horse that goes into the Melbourne Cup with stronger form lines than Wicklow Brave. He ran well without winning at the start of his campaign, but he upstaged Order Of St George to win the Irish St Leger and he went on to finish in the placings in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. There is no question that he will run out the trip strongly and he has been absolutely flying in quarantine. Franke Dettori takes the ride and he is definitely one of the best chances in the race.
Almoonqith
Almoonqith is another horse that will be contesting his second Melbourne Cup. He made a very slow start to his 2016 Spring Racing Carnival campaign and he looked like a horse whose best days were behind him, but he was one of the best closers in the Caulfield Cup. Almoonqith is proven at the trip, but he would still need to improve on his Caulfield Cup effort to win the Melbourne Cup and I am not sure he is capable of doing that at this stage of his racing career.
Gallante
Gallante won the Sydney Cup in the autumn and that has generally not proven to be a particularly strong form line for the Melbourne Cup. He comes into this race off the back of a very poor effort in the Moonee Valley Cup and it is extremely tough to throw any support behind him off that performance. Even his best form is probably not good enough to measure up in this race.
Grand Marshal
Grand Marshal goes into the Melbourne Cup on the back of a win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup – his first victory since he won the 2015 edition of the Sydney Cup. He is a genuine stayer that relishes the extra trip and his best chance of running well in this race is if there is plenty of early speed. I don’t think that he is capable of winning a Melbourne Cup, but he is more than capable of finishing in the top five and could add some value to exotics.
Jameka
Jameka has had an outstanding 2016 Spring Racing Carnival campaign and she goes into the Melbourne Cup with every possible chance. She produced a new career best performance to win the Caulfield Cup and she really put a gap on the rest of the field. It is tough to see anything that beat here turning the tables in the Melbourne Cup, but whether she can beat the other horses in that field is the question? There is definitely some query over her ability to run out a strong 3200 metres and I can’t get her as short as her current quote.
Heartbreak City
Heartbreak City has gone to another level during his current racing season and he is deserving of his chance in the 2016 Melbourne Cup. He recorded to wins over the hurdles in May and July before he produced easily the best performance of his racing career to take out the Ebor Handicap in dominant fashion. That was something of a spike rating and he will need to at least run up to that level if not improve to win the Melbourne Cup.
Sir John Hawkwood
Sir John Hawkwood did not have a great deal of luck in the Caulfield Cup and it would not surprise to see him run well in the Melbourne Cup. There was plenty of merit in his victory in The Metropolitan and it would not surprise me to see him ridden more aggressively on Tuesday. He will run better than his current Melbourne Cup odds suggest.
Excess Knowledge
It has been a long time between wins for Excess Knowledge, but he showed in the Melbourne Cup last year that he is more than capable of running a big race over 3200 metres. His lead-up form has not been as strong this year – Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman put a gap on him in the Moonee Valley Cup – but if the Melbourne Cup is slowly run there is no reason that he can’t finish in the top ten again.
Beautiful Romance
Beautiful Romance looks a touch outclassed in the 2016 Melbourne Cup. She won the Middleton Stakes for fillies at York in May, but she finished at the tail of the field on the Nassau Stakes and she could do no better than third in the Nayef Stakes. The Melbourne Cup is a tougher race than those and she should be the outsider of the field.
Almandin
Almandin earnt himself a place in the Melbourne Cup field with his victory in The Bart Cummings. That was not a particularly high rating race, but he does get into this race very well at the weights and he has the profile to hit a new peak over the 3200 metres of the Melbourne Cup. Kerrin McEvoy is an outstanding rider of stayers and there is no doubt that Almandin deserves his place amongst the leading chances.
Assign
Assign led from start to finish to win the Herbert Power Stakes and he is another horse that should settle in the first half of the Melbourne Cup field. That will give him every chance to run a big race, but there is a big question mark over the form coming out of the Herbert Power Stakes and it is tough to see him winning a Melbourne Cup.
Grey Lion
Grey Lion heads into the Melbourne Cup after he made his Australian racing debut with a close second behind Qewy in the Geelong Cup. He is definitely a progressive horse that still has a great deal of improvement in front of him, but I am not sure that he is ready to win a race like the Melbourne Cup at this stage of his racing career.
Oceanographer
Oceanographer is the x-factor in the Melbourne Cup field. He could finish no better than third when he made his Australian racing debut in the Geelong Cup, but he still found the line strongly and he was nothing short of outstanding in the Lexus Stakes. That performance was of the highest quality and he will be storming home in the final stages of the Melbourne Cup. He has got a touch short now, but there is no doubt that he is a genuine contender.
Secret Number
Secret Number is a tough horse to analyse as he has had just one race start since he finished second behind Dandino in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes almost a year ago. That run was a high-quality victory in the Doonside Cup and he does get into this race fairly well in at the weights. It would be quiet the training performance, but he is one of the best outsiders in this field.
Pentathlon
Pentathlon toughed it out to finish third in the Moonee Valley Cup, but he was poor in the Lexus Stakes. It would be a bigger upset than Prince Of Penzance if he is able to get the job done.
Qewy
Qewy led from start to finish in the Geelong Cup and he looks likely to attempt to do the same thing in the Melbourne Cup with Craig Williams in the saddle. He will run all day will give himself every possible chance, but it is very tough to make all the running in the Melbourne Cup and I don’t think he has the turn-of-foot required to win this race.
Rose Of Virginia
This is very ambitious placement from the connections of Rose Of Virignia. He was very poor in the Lexus Stakes and off that performance he has absolutely no chance in the Melbourne Cup.