The 2016 Crown Oaks is the highlight of Ladies Day at Flemington on Thursday and this year it looks like somewhat of a one horse affair.
Yankee Rose will start the 2016 Crown Oaks as a dominant favourite following her third place finish behind Winx and Hartnell in the Cox Plate and she has an excellent chance to record a third win at Group 1 level.
Can Yankee Rose deliver as favourite or will there be a Crown Oaks upset? I have analysed every horse in the 2016 Crown Oaks field to help you find the best betting plays.
Yankee Rose is a dominant favourite in 2016 Crown Oaks betting markets. Photo by: Steve Hart
Yankee Rose is a deserving Crown Oaks favourite and it is impossible to tip against her. She was only narrowly denied by the talented Global Glamour in the Flight Stakes and she ran out the 2000 metres strongly to win the Spring Champion Stakes. Yankee Rose took on the older horses in the Cox Plate and she had a very light weight, but she still was able to finish in the placings in a quality edition of the race. I doubt that she will have any problems running out a strong 2500 metres and even if she does she still has a massive class edge over the rest of this field. I have her marked as a $1.50 chance and it would not surprise to see her record a dominant victory.
Missrock improved on her Thousand Guineas effort to finish third in the Wakeful Stakes. The problem with that performance was that she was going backwards on the line and I don’t fancy her chances of running out a strong 2500 metres.
Sebring Dream was outsprinted by Tiamo Grace in the Wakeful Stakes, but there was still a fair bit of merit in in her performance. Her winning record is not great and I doubt she can beat Yankee Rose, but she is more than capable of finishing in the placings.
Moquuen won the Dulcify Quality at the start of her spring campaign. Photo by: Steve Hart
Moqueen was beaten by Eleonora in the Ethereal Stakes and it is tough to see her turning-the-tables on her, let along beating Yankee Rose. She should be at least double her current price.
If there is a danger to Yankee Rose in the Crown Oaks it is Eleonora. Eleonora recorded her maiden race win in Australia with a strong staying performance in the Ethereal Stakes and she has always looked like a horse that would relish the step-up in trip to 2500 metres. I expect her to be hitting the line strongly and if Yankee Rose doesn’t show up she is likely to be the main beneficiary.
Smart As You Think
Smart As You Think produced the best performance of her racing career to date to record an impressive victory at Moonee Valley last start. She is definitely a filly that is heading in the right direction, but she still needs to find several more lengths of improvement to win this race.
Harlow Gold looked to be heading in the right direction after her solid fifth in the Thousand Guineas, but she was disappointing when sixth behind Smart As You Think last start and it is tough to back her off that performance.
Bella Sorellastra got far too far back in the Wakeful Stakes and she did find the line nicely. I don’t think that she is capable of winning the Crown Oaks, but she should run better than her current odds.
Peeking Duck comes into this race on the back of a narrow win at Cranbourne. Before that she beat home just a single runner in the Edward Manifold Stakes and I couldn’t possibly have her in this race.
Lamma Hilton made up decent ground late in the Wakeful Stakes, but she was never able to get into the race. Anthony Cummings has pulled up miracles like that in the past, but this would be a huge effort.
Lasqueti Spirit is yet to record a maiden race win and last start she finished fourth in a Class 1 at Kembla Grange. Surely not.
Nina Peak has never really looked like winning a race and she was handily beaten by Peeking Duck last start. She is deserving of such a big quote.
My Girl Chilly
My Girl Chilly is another horse that comes through the Wakeful Stakes and she is in an almost identical situation to the likes of Bella Sorellastra and Lamma Hilton.
Red Velvet Swing
Red Velvet Swing failed to fire in the Edward Manifold Stakes and she was then beaten in a maiden at Benalla. She isn’t up to this level.
Penthouse Kitten was beaten as a $201 chance in the Wakeful Stakes and she has even less chance in this race.