2016 Villiers Stakes Day Preview

This is a typically open edition of the Highway Handicap. Absolute Ripper and Isla Tristana fought out the finish last start and a repeat looks likely in this race, but both have been fairly well found in the market. No horse really stands out at their current prices and I am happy to stay out of this race from a betting perspective.

No Bet

Redoubtable Heart finally returned to winning form with a victory over Sir Plush last start and it would not surprise if he was able to go on with the job. He generally runs well second-up and the wide barrier draw should actually prove to be an advantage. This is no tougher than the field he faced last start and I am backing him to win again.

2 Units Redoubtable Heart

The Inglis Nursery was won by subsequent Blue Diamond Stakes winner Extreme Choice and ended up being a strong form race. She Will Reign is a deserving favourite following her dominant victory at Kembla Grange, but I can’t get her as short as her current quote due to concerns about Ben Melham in Sydney as well as Gary Portelli’s record with favourites. The horse that stands out at her current price is Serena Bay. She has run strong time in her two race wins to date and she still has the scope to improve. Kerrin McEvoy will put her right in this race and she is well over the odds at her current price.

1 Unit Serena Bay

This is one of the most open betting races on the card and you can make a case for a number of horses in this field. Imposing Lass is a horse that I have been waiting to return to the races. She produced a number of high-rating performances during her winter campaign and her two barrier trials have been excellent. This will be short of her best trip, but I expect her to produce a big effort first-up.

1 Unit Imposing Lass

You can make a case for the majority of this field and there is no doubt that Lord Van Percy is over the odds at his current price. He has improved each time that he has been seen at the races this preparation and he was far from disgraced in the Pakenham Cup. That was a stronger race than this and he is one of the few horses in this field that has the benefit of a run over 2400 metres already this preparation.

1 Unit Lord Van Percy

There are a number of progressive sprinters in what I expect to be a fairly strong form race going forward. There is plenty of hype surrounding Miss Debutante and she is a promising filly, but it is tough to ignore the form of Super Too. She has raced well in much stronger races than this one and she was only beaten by the talented Spright at Flemington on Crown Oaks Day. She will put herself right in the race and will be tough to run down late.

2 Units Super Too

Fabrizio is a horse that I have a big opinion of and I expect him to develop into a genuine Group 1 contender during the autumn. He went into the Epsom Handicap as a genuine chance and was given a crazy ride, but he bounce backed to record two dominant victory at Royal Randwick and Flemington. He makes his own luck right on the speed and as long as Tim Clark does not go too slow in front he will be very tough to beat. Kenjorwood is another on speed type that appeals at a big price. It has been a while between wins, but he is more than capable of performing well at this level and he is a better horse than his current price suggests. Sarrasin is the x-factor in this race. This is short of his best trip, but he is a class horse and he had form around Erupt in France. I expect him to sprint well fresh and could cause an upset.

3 Units Fabrizio

1 Unit Sarrasin

½ Unit Kenjorwood

This is an interesting edition of the Razor Sharp and I am keen to back a few horses at a good price. Kuro has also been nominated for the Lough Neagh Stakes in Brisbane, but if he contests this race he will be right in the finish. He finally returned to winning form in the Starlight Stakes and his best form is more than good enough to win this race. His Majesty is a horse that simply doesn’t run a bad race and Kim Waugh has freshened him up for this race. He has won three of his five first-up starts. Sirbible failed to fire at Moonee Valley last start, but he is a better horse than that performance suggests and is worth a gamble at his current price.

1.5 Units Kuro

1.5 Units His Majesty

½ Unit Sirbible

The question in this race is whether to give Sir Plush another chance. He has been a very frustrating horse for punters this preparation – myself included – but he is still the best horse in this race. I am willing to give him one more opportunity and if he brings his best form to the races the $6 will be well over the odds.

1.5 Units Sir Plush