The 2017 Sydney Cup is set to be one of the most interesting editions of the race in years and 14 tough stayers will contest the Group 1 event at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
Big Duke is set to start the 2017 Sydney Cup as a clear favourite, but the presence of a couple of international stayers as well as a variety of different form lines makes this a very interesting race.
Will Big Duke score a maiden Group 1 victory or will there be a Sydney Cup upset? We have analysed all 14 runners in the 2017 Sydney Cup field and our thoughts on each can be found below.
Who Shot Thebarman
Who Shot Thebarman returns to handicap conditions after he raced well without winning in the Chipping Norton Stakes, Sky High Stakes and The BMW. There is no doubt that Who Shot Thebarman will be thereabouts in the 2017 Sydney Cup, but he doesn’t have the same upside as some of the other horses in this field and I am happy to take him on at his current price.
Libran
Libran was beaten as favourite in the Sydney Cup 12 months ago and this is a much tougher race for him. He will relish the step-up to 3200 metres, but he is not racing at the same level as he was last year.
Almoonqith
Almoonqith comes into the Sydney Cup off a flat performance in the Ladbrokes Mornington Cup. He has not really come up this preparation and he has definitely seen better days.
Tally
Tally stepped-up to 2400 metres to score an impressive win in the Ladbrokes Mornington Cup and it will be interesting to see how he fares in his first assignment over 3200 metres. His lead-up form is as good as any horse in this field and if he is able to run out the two miles strongly there is no reason that he can’t be in the finish.
Assign
Assign makes the big jump-up to 3200 metres after winning the Neville Sellwood Stakes. You can never rule out the Macedon Lodge team of Lloyd Williams in these staying events, but this is a big step-up in distance and he flopped in the Melbourne Cup last year.
Chance To Dance
Chance To Dance could finished no better than fourth in the Adelaide Cup and this is a much stronger race. He has never produced a performance that suggests he is up to this company.
Big Duke
Big Duke will start the 2017 Sydney Cup as a dominant favourite and he is definitely worth of that status, but whether he deserves to be as short as his current price is the big question. He ran away from his rivals late in the Chairman’s Handicap, but that was a slowly run race and I expect there to be much more early pace in the Sydney Cup. I’m not sure whether he will have that acceleration over 3200 metres and I am happy to take him on at his current price.
Annus Mirabilis
Annus Mirabilis ran out a strong 3200 metres to win the Adelaide Cup, but he followed that up with a very flat effort in the Ladbrokes Mornington Cup. He will have no problem running out the trip, but it is tough to back him off his last start effort.
Mister Impatience
Mister Impatience comes into the Sydney Cup off a flat effort in the Auckland Cup and even on his best form it is tough to see him winning this race.
Penglai Pavilion
Penglai Pavilion is one of two Charlie Appleby-trained horses in the 2017 Sydney Cup field and he is genuine value to deliver Godolphin another big Group 1 win. Penglai Pavilion is as tough as they come and with form over 4000 metres, he will have no issues running out the 3200 metres strongly. Kerrin McEvoy is one of the best riders of stayers in Australia and he looks likely to take up the running on the Monsun gelding. He won’t be slowing down late and he will prove very tough to run down.
Kinema
Kinema has failed to fire during his Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival to date, but it would not surprise to see him return to a semblance of his best form over 3200 metres. He is a genuine stayer that needs as much ground as possible and he won the Prince Of Penzance Plate over 2800 metres in very impressive fashion. His best form would put him right in this race and he is over the odds at $34.
Pentathlon
Pentathlon finished in the top ten in the Melbourne Cup last year and there is no doubt that he will run out this trip strongly. I don’t think that he has the upside to win, but it would not surprise to see him finish in the top five.
Vengeur Masque
Vengeur Masque has improved in each race start this preparation and he was only narrowly denied by Tally in the Ladbrokes Mornington Cup. He will be in the race for a long way, but he looks to have found his right price.
Polarisation
Polarisation is the other European stayer in the Sydney Cup field. He does not have as strong a form as Penglai Pavilion, but he has a similar profile to a number of the stayers that Appleby sent to Australia in the spring and took all before him. He is another stayer that I am keen to have something small on at the current price.