Race 1 - 11:25pm
There are only six horses in this field, but there are a number of lightly-raced horses with a fair bit of talent in this field. Debonairly won at Newcastle in very impressive fashion and is clearly the horse to beat here, but I can’t get her as short as her current quote. I don’t really want to bet against her in this race and I am happy to stay out of this contest from a betting standpoint.
Race 2 - 12:00pm
Another interesting race. I Thought So threw away the race in the Gosford Guineas, but his form before that was excellent and he trialed very nicely at Rosehill Gardens on April 10. There really is not a great deal of speed in this race and it really would not surprise if Tim Clark pressed forward to take control of this race. As long as he keeps his mind on the job he will be very tough to beat.
4 Units I Thought So
Race 3 - 12:35pm
Chris Waller has a strong hand in this race and it would be a surprise if he did not train the winner. Both Egg Tart and Black on Gold are quality horses, but Sizzling Bullet is a horse that appeals at nice odd. Sizzling Bullet drops back in class after he struggled in the heavy ground in the Rosehill Guineas and Waller elected to give him a barrier trial between starts. His form before his Rosehill Guineas flop was excellent and it would not surprise to see him bounce back.
1 Unit Sizzling Bullet
Race 4 - 1:10pm
Richard Of Yorke returns to Sydney after chasing the talented Hans Holbein home in a smartly run race at Bendigo and before that he led all the way to record a dominant victory at Ladbrokes Park. He does not have the best winning record, but it is fair to say that he is in the best form of his career and there is no fitter horse in this field. Kerrin McEvoy can take control of this race and make Richard Of Yorke very tough to beat.
3 Units Richard Of Yorke
Race 5 - 1:45pm
Only Choice is a lightly-raced galloper with plenty of upside and those are the type of horses that I am always looking for in the Highway Handicap. He was only narrow denied on debut at Goulburn before he ran some impressive closing sectionals to win at Orange last start. He has the benefit of Brenton Avdulla in the saddle and if he is able to replicate his previous form he will be very tough to beat.
2 Units Only Choice
Race 6 - 2:20pm
My Psychiatrist did not have a great deal of luck when she returned to the races at Warwick Farm. She can settle closer to the speed from barrier two over a mile and if she is able to improve on her first-up effort she will be right in the mix at a nice price. Montauk is the main danger and doesn’t run a bad race.
1.5 Units My Psychiatrist
Race 7 - 2:55pm
Sir Bacchus has always been a horse with plenty of ability and if he returns to the races at anywhere near his best form he will be right in this race. He is unproven over 1000 metres and that is the only real question mark here. Nieta is the 1000 metres specialist in this field and she produced a number of high-rating performance at the end of her summer campaign. She is rock-bottom odds at her current price, but I don’t want to lose on the race if she wins.
3 Units Nieta
1.5 Units Sir Bacchus
Race 8 - 3:35pm
This is the second running of the Sydney Cup in 2017 after the tragic passing of Almoonqith caused the first running to be declared a non-race. The presence of Lasqueti Spirit makes this a much different type of race as she will ensure that this will develop into a genuine staying test. That means that horses with form over 3200 metres or even further should be favoured.
I was keen on the Godolphin duo of Penglai Pavilion and Polarisation in the first running of the Sydney Cup and that does not change this Saturday. They are proven stayers that will have no problem running out the trip strongly and they could be advantaged by the fact that they have now had a race day experience in Australia.
Another horse that appeals at a juicy price is Harlem. He was outclassed behind Winx in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, but he does have some form in high-quality staying races in France and finished fourth over 3000 metres in the Prix Kergorlay. He is a much better chance than the current price suggests.
1.5 Units Penglai Pavilion
1.5 Units Polarisation
½ Unit Kinema
½ Unit Harlem
Race 9 - 4:15pm
This looks to be outstanding placement of Moss ‘N’ Dale. She was not disgraced first-up at Mornington and she is unbeaten in her two starts second-up. She is still a progressive galloper with plenty of upside and she does have the opportunity to press forward from the wide barrier draw. I wish they had put another jockey on, but she really does stand out in this race at her current price.
1.5 Units Moss ‘N’ Dale
Race 10 - 4:55pm
Replique is a better horse than her current record suggests and she is worth a small gamble at her current big price. She clearly didn’t settle in her first preparation in Australia, but this is a serious drop in class and it really would not surprise if she was a big improver. This is far from the strongest race and she is a better chance than the current big price suggests.
½ Unit Replique