2017 Darley Kingsford Smith Cup Day Preview

James Cummings has had a strong start to the 2017 Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival and he has found a very nice race for Burning Passion. Burning Passion was not far away when he returned to the races in the Hawkesbury XXXX Gold Rush and he will appreciate the step-up in distance. His recent barrier trial at Royal Randwick was very nice and he generally takes a big leap forward second-up. He is the best horse in this field and has an excellent chance to return to winning form.

2 Units Burning Passion

Religify was excellent first-up in the Prime Minister’s Cup, but all of his best form has been on top of the ground and there is a big question mark over how he will handle the soft Eagle Farm surface. The same can be said about his stablemate Amovatio. Both Duca Valentinois and Pajaro come out of the Scone Cup and both have proven they are capable of performing on a softer track. Eagle Farm should suit both horses as they will have plenty of time to wind up and I would not be surprised to see them fight out the finish.

1.5 Units Duca Valentinois

1.5 Units Pajaro

This is a very strong edition of the BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes and you can make a case for a host of talented two-year-olds. Tangled and Taking Aim are both progressive horses that have made strong starts to their Queensland Winter Racing Carnival campaigns and they profile well for this race, but the presence of talented Kiwi gallopers Qiji Phoenix and Melody Belle does add unknowns to this race. I am very interested in seeing how this race plays out, but it is not one that I am keen to get involved in from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Stampede just keeps improving every time that he goes to the races and he was in control of the Chairman’s Handicap throughout. This is another step-up in trip, but there is no reason that he can’t make it two wins on the trot. The value runner in this field is Benzini. He relished the Eagle Farm track to win the Brisbane Cup last year and his recent form in New Zealand has been sound. Zambezi Warrior is another Kiwi visitor that impressed when he made his Australian racing debut in the Chairman’s Handicap. He should take a fair amount of improvement from that run and Eagle Farm does look a better track for him.

3 Units Stampede

1 Unit Benzini

1 Unit Zambezi Warrior

Shocking Luck could hardly have been more impressive in the Rough Habit Plate and the scary thing for his rivals is that he looks to have more improvement in front of him. He proved that he can handle a wet track with that effort and the step-up in trip to 2200 metres looks as though it will suit. New Zealand-trained three-year-olds have dominated the staying races in Australia in 2017 and there is no reason that can’t continue. The main danger is Victoria Derby winner Prized Icon, but there are genuine concerns over his ability to handle the shifting Eagle Farm surface.

3 Units Shocking Luck

The Glenlogan Park Stakes is one of the most interesting races at Eagle Farm this weekend. Raiment has a star quality about her and her victories in both the Birthday Card Stakes and the JHB Carr Stakes were most impressive, but consistency has been something of an issue and it is tough to get her as short as her current quote. Miss Debutante produced a career best performance to win the Denise’s Joy Quality and fillies do have a strong record in this race. The wet track does suit her and she is worth a small gamble at her current price.

1 Unit Miss Debutante

This is a very open edition of the Darley Kingsford Smith Cup. Black Heart Bart is the class horse in this field, but there is a small question mark over him after he produced a slightly flat effort in The Goodwood last weekend. The application of blinkers is interesting and he can’t be ruled out, but looks to have found his right price.

The same can be said about both Counterattack and Derryn. They were both excellent in the Doomben 10,000 and will both be tough to beat in the Stradbroke Handicap, but look to have found their right price.

The horse that does standout from a value betting perspective is Jungle Edge. He has been nothing short of a revelation this campaign and there is plenty to like about him in the Darley Kingsford Smith Cup. The Dubawi gelding could hardly have been more impressive in the BRC Sprint and he has proven in the past that he relishes the quick back-up. Eagle Farm is the perfect track for him and he has a genuine chance of recording a Group 1 win.

1 Unit Jungle Edge

Good Standing was dominant in the Queensland Day Stakes at Doomben a fortnight ago and he does look well-placed to get the job done once again this weekend. On his best form he does have a clear class edge over this field and he does enjoy the sting out of the track. The wide barrier draw should be an advantage by this stage of the afternoon. France is a colt that has always promised plenty and he showed an impressive turn-of-foot to finish over the top of Prized Icon in the Inglis Guineas. He is another horse that the wide barrier draw is not a problem for and he is definitely over the odds at his current price of $13.

2 Units Good Standing

1 Unit France