2017 Ladbrokes Cox Plate Qualifier Day Preview

Spanish Reef has been ultra-consistent this preparation and she will be right in the finish again in the Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap. She drops back in distance from 2000 metres to the mile, which should suit, and she is a mare that makes her own luck right on the speed.

Samovare was beaten as a short-priced favourite at Flemington last start, but she did have excuses. It is tough to get her as short as her current price as she will likely settle in the middle of this field, but she is the obvious danger to Spanish Reef.

 2 Units Spanish Reef

There are a number of lightly-raced horses with plenty of upside in what is one of the most open betting races of the day. This is a step-up in class for Mutamayel, but he is a colt with plenty of scope and he was impressive when he won at Ladbrokes Park last start. He makes his own luck right on the speed and the booking of Damien Oliver is always a positive.

Masculino is another horse that will settle right on the speed and trainer Mick Price seems to have a big opinion of him. He was nothing short of dominant at Cranbourne last start and he has a great deal of upside. $9 is over the odds for a horse that clearly has plenty of raw ability.

1.5 Units Mutamayel

1/2 Unit Masculino

There has been an early move for Brahmos and he is a horse with ability, but he maps to get a long way back with Craig Williams in the saddle and he looks like a good risk at the current price.

One horse that will be making his own luck right on the speed is Oscar’s My Mate Pa and he is the value runner in what is a really open race. He was dominant last start at Cranbourne and this is obviously tougher, but he will take up the running and prove tough to run down late.

1 Unit Oscar’s My Mate Pa

This is probably the most open betting race of the day and you can make a case for just about every horse in the race. I don’t want to bet too heavily into such an open betting affair, but the fact that the Macedon Lodge team have Amralah on the quick back-up does intrigue me. He faded late in the Heatherlie Handicap,  but he has never really performed at shorter than 2000 metres and he is capable of taking a big step forward when he gets out to his right trip. Katelyn Mallyon looks set to press forward in the early stages of the race and it would not surprise if he was a big improver at a nice price.

1/2 Unit Amralah

The McEwen Stakes is absolutely packed full of talent and they look set to absolutely smash the clock in this Group 2 event. The presence of Heatherly and Houtzen will ensure that there is an incredible amount of early speed and the battle between these two early will be nothing short of fascinating.

That speed battle could set the race up for a horse that trails that pair into the race and that looks set to be Russian Revolution. He sat on a very hot tempo to win The Galaxy in the Autumn and he has produced a number of high-rating performances during his racing career to date. Team Snowden are keen to get him into The Everest and they are sure to have him as forward as possible for the McEwen Stakes. I am keen to take Houtzen on and Russian Revolution really does appeal at the current price of $3.50.

2.5 Units Russian Revolution

The Atlantic Jewel Stakes is always an interesting race and the 2017 edition is set to be no exception. Shoals won three races from as many starts as a two-year-old and she beat some nice horses in the process. Her Percy Sykes Stakes victory came over Formality and she has come out and won both the Silver Shadow Stakes and the Furious Stakes. She has shown some tactical versatility during her racing career to date and she can take up a forward position.

Phillip Stokes has an excellent record when he brings horses to Melbourne and Broadband is well and truly over the odds at her current price. Dwayne Dunn will likely have no choice, but to press forward from the wide barrier and she does have the speed to take up the running. She won the Breeders’ Stakes in South Australia and she is a much better chance than her current price suggests.

2 Units Shoals

1 Unit Broadband

This race is all about Brave Smash and he is deserving of his status as an odds-on favourite. Brave Smash made his Australian racing debut with a second place finish behind Vega Magic in the Regal Roller Stakes and he probably should have won. The form coming out of that race was well and truly franked by Vega Magic in the Memsie Stakes last weekend and if Brave Smash performs at that level again he will be extremely tough to beat. The only question is where he gets in the run and that is why I can’t get him as short as the current quote of $1.60, but I am definitely not willing to bet against him.

No Bet

The Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes offers the winner direct entry into the 2017 Ladbrokes Cox Plate and this does look like a huge opportunity for He’s Our Rokkii. He never really fired in the Autumn, but he was excellent last Spring and he returned to the races with a nice fourth behind Hartnell, Charmed Harmony and Black Heart Bart in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield. He maps to get a lovely trail just behind the leaders from barrier one and if he is able to peel out at the right time he will be very tough to hold-out.

Rhythm To Spare does not have as much upside as some of these other horses, but he does have a big fitness edge and he comes into this race off two nice wins at Flemington and Caulfield. He may be eight, but he is racing in career best form and he is worthy of a small bet at $12.

3 Units He’s Our Rokkii

1 Unit Rhythm To Spare

Stampede will be better over further, but he did win over 1600 metres at Goulburn last preparation and he won a recent barrier trial at Royal Randwick in the lead-up to his racing return. He just kept on improving each time that he was seen at the races last campaign and he still does look to have upside. There isn’t a great deal of speed in this race, which gives Beau Mertens the opportunity to press forward and take up the running. He can run these other stayers off their feet and will prove very tough to catch late.

1.5 Units Stampede