2017 Victoria Derby Day Tips & Preview

The Carbine Club Stakes is always an outstanding race and the 2017 edition is set to be no exception. Chris Waller has an outstanding record in the Carbine Club Stakes and Kaonic is in a similar mould to both Kermadec and Comin’ Through. Kaonic has been nothing short of dominant in his past two starts at Canterbury and Royal Randwick and he still looks to have plenty of upside. The wide barrier draw is an advantage as he will get back in the run anyway and he will be very tough to hold-out late.

The main danger is Snitzepeg, who has been absolutely flying this preparation. It took him a while to fire, but he was very tough in both the Antler Luggage Stakes and the Gothic Stakes. He makes his own luck right on the speed and he is over the odds at his current price.

Update: 

Kaonic has been scratched from the Carbine Club Stakes due to an elevated temperature and this completely changes the complexion of the race. Snitzepeg is still well and truly over the odds at his current price of $6 and he is now an even better chance of delivering Darren Weir another victory in the Carbine Club Stakes.

1.5 Units Snitzepeg

Bring Me The Roses could hardly have been more impressive in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the way that she savaged the line late suggests that she will have no issues handling the step-up to 2000 metres. The Tony McEvoy stable is absolutely flying and Mark Zahra is arguably riding in the best form of his career. She can go into the Crown Oaks as a leading contender.

I am willing to give Teodora another chance. The race wasn’t run to suit in the Ethereal Stakes and when she did eventually find clear running she ran some of the fastest closing sectionals in the race. She is still lightly-raced and she will have benefitted from having that run over 2000 metres under her belt.

2 Units Bring Me The Roses

1 Unit Teodora

Sheidel won this race 12 months ago and she is capable of going back-to-back. This is a weaker field to what she beat last year and she does have a class edge over the rest of this field. She is yet to win this preparation, but she was only narrowly beaten in both the Moir Stakes and the Schillaci Stakes. If she is able to produce anything near her best form she will prove too strong for this field.

2 Units Sheidel

The winner of the Lexus Stakes receives ballot-exempt entry into the Melbourne Cup and this is always a hotly-contested race. This is not the strongest edition of the Lexus Stakes and there really isn’t a great deal between all of the leading contenders, but Cismontane is a horse that does appeal. He was gallant in defeat in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last weekend and I like the fact that Gai Waterhouse has him on the quick back-up. He will take up the running in the early stages of this race and give his rivals something to catch.

1.5 Units Cismontane

This is one of the most competitive editions of the Coolmore Stud Stakes in recent memory and as the market suggests you can make a case for just about every horse in the field. Narrowing this field down to three winning chances is almost impossible as there are about 15 horses that are capable of winning, but there are three that do appeal at their current prices.

Invincible Star could be the x-factor in this race. She will only be having her fifth race start, but she has always shown plenty of potential. The way that she put away her rivals to win the Thoroughbred Club Stakes last start at Caulfield was very impressive and she is a horse that will be suited by the sit and sprint nature of a race down the Flemington straight.

Tulip comes into the Coolmore Stud Stakes off the back of a gallant fifth in The Everest and a repeat of that performance would have her right in this race. It has been a while between wins, but she is always thereabouts in these Group 1 contests and the drop back to her own age suits. She is over the odds at her current price.

Summer Passage is a horse that is much better than his record in Australia suggests. He has not had any luck whatsoever in his three starts this preparation and a horse with his talent shouldn’t be $34 in what is such an open race.

1 Unit Invincible Star

¾ Unit Tulip

¼ Unit Summer Passage

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This is a stellar edition of the Myer Classic and some of the best mares in the country that are not named Winx are in this field. Global Glamour is as tough as they come and she can claim another Group 1 victory in the Myer Classic. The two-time Group 1 winner has a host of high-rating performances on her racing resume and she returned to the races with a very tough victory in the Tristarc Stakes. There is no doubt that the track helped her that day, but she will have taken plenty of benefit from that run and she always makes her own luck right on the speed.

Shoals is the x-factor in the Myer Classic. She finished second behind Aloisia in the Thousand Guineas and that form was franked in a big way when Aloisia came out and blitzed them in the Moonee Valley Vase last weekend. I Am A Star showed that fillies can win the Myer Classic last year and Shoals has more upside than the majority of this field.

2 Units Global Glamour

1.5 Units Shoals

Click Here For Our Complete Myer Classic Preview

The Victoria Derby is another very open Group 1 affair on a day of racing that is absolutely packed full of them. Like the Coolmore Stud Stakes, you can make a case for just about every horses in this field but it is tough to go past Ace High. He showed plenty of toughness to win both the Gloaming Stakes and the Spring Champion Stakes and he gives the impression that he will be even better over 2500 metres. Tye Angland can take him straight to the front or elect to take a sit from barrier three and he could simply outstay his rivals. There are plenty of other horses that you can make a case and it wouldn’t surprise if just about any horse in this field was able to get the job done, but simply due to his racing style and toughness I am keen to side with Ace High.

1.5 Units Ace High

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Darren Weir and Chris Waller both have very strong hands in the Kennedy Mile. Weir is represented by Tosen Stardom and Lucky Hussler, while Waller has McCreery, Tom Melbourne, Egg Tart, Omei Sword, Shillelagh and All Our Roads.

I am siding with the Weir duo. Tosen Stardom finally recorded a maiden race win in Australia when he showed an explosive turn-of-foot in the Toorak Handicap and he did that against the pattern of the day. That win may have been the confidence boost that he needed to really show what he is capable of and if he is able to replicate his last start effort he will prove very tough to beat.

Weekend Hussler returned to his best form with a dominant win in the Crystal Mile last weekend and it is clear that his best form is good enough to win a race of this quality. There is no doubt that the mile is his pet distance at this stage of his racing career and with even luck from the barrier draw he can be in the finish.

The horse from the Waller stable that does appeal is All Our Roads. He didn’t get the race run to suit for him in the Ladbrokes Moonga Stakes and he is a better horse than that performance suggests. Jeff Lloyd will give him a lovely trail into this race from the inside barrier draw and could surprise at double figure odds.

1.5 Units Tosen Stardom

1.5 Units Lucky Hussler

½ Unit All Our Roads

Click Here For Our Complete Kennedy Mile Preview

This is an interesting way to finish the day for punters. Illustrious Lad won this race 12 months ago and there is no reason that he can’t go back-to-back. He was only narrowly denied by Super Cash in the Schillaci Stakes and that performance suggests that he has returned to the races in the sort of form that he showed this time last year.

The x-factor in this field is Man From Uncle and he is excellent value at his current quote of $8. Man From Uncle won the Eskimo Prince Stakes first-up in the Autumn before he went on to take out the Hobartville Stakes. He should take plenty of improvement from this run, but if he brings his Autumn form to the races he will be right in this.

1.5 Units Illustrious Lad

1 Unit Man From Uncle