2017 VRC Oaks Day Preview

This is a tricky way to start the day for punters as there are plenty of winning chances in what is a capacity field. History Repeats is racing better than her record suggests and she can run a nice race at big odds. The drop in trip is a positive and there is no fitter horse in the race. Kerrin McEvoy will have no choice but to push forward from the wide barrier draw and that is generally when she brings her best form to the races. The stable of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott is absolutely flying and History Repeats is over the odds in a very open race.

½ Unit History Repeats

Mr Garcia is an interesting international from the stable of Andreas Wohler. He has run in some nice races in England and on his best form would be more than competitive in what is far from the strongest race. The early support in betting has been a positive sign and he is another horse that has the benefit of Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. As long as he has travelled over well he will be right in the finish.

1.5 Units Mr Garcia

There is always plenty of interest in the Grey races on VRC Oaks Day. The market has zeroed in on Urban Ruler and Silvera and they do look like the horses to beat. Urban Ruler has an excellent record and he returned to the races with a nice win at Geelong. He still has the scope to improve on that effort and if he does that he will go a level that few horses in this field can match.

Silvera finished third behind Odeon and Dodging Bullets on Blue Sapphire Day and both horses have come out and won since. This is a drop back in trip, but his record over 1400 metres is excellent and the form around him this preparation has been very strong. Urban Ruler and Silvera do have a clear edge over the rest of this field and I am happy to back them both.

1.5 Units Silvera

1.5 Units Urban Ruler

Night’s Watch has shown plenty of potential during his maiden racing campaign in Australia and he is now starting to put it all together. He savaged the line to win at Bendigo last start and the step back up in trip to a mile will suit. The wide barrier draw isn’t an issue as he gets back anyway and as long as he finds clear running he will be tough to hold out late.

The main danger is his stablemate Another Coldie. He chased home Night’s Watch at Bendigo last start and he would need to improve on that performance to win this race, but he is capable of doing just that. Damian Lane is riding with plenty of confidence and the current price of $8 is well and truly over the odds.

3 Units Night’s Watch

1 Unit Another Coldie

This is a small field, but there is plenty of quality in this race. You can make a case for just about every horse in this field, but on their best form Ulmann and Supply And Demand do have a class edge. Ulmann returned to his best form to record an impressive win in the Ladbrokes Moonga Stakes and this race is easier. These type of races are perfect for him and he maps to get a lovely trail into this race just behind the speed.

Supply And Demand returned to the rades with a close second at Royal Randwick and he will take plenty of benefit from that run. He will be better over further – he won both the Caloundra Cup and the Grafton Cup in the Winter – but he can sprint well fresh. He doesn’t have to get as far back as he did last start and you can’t knock anything from the Waterhouse/Bott stable at the moment.

1.5 Units Ulmann

1.5 Units Supply And Demand

It has been a long time between wins for Ball Of Muscle, but this really does look like the right race for him. He has been placed at Group 1 level over 1000 metres and he comes into this race on the back of an excellent performance behind In Her Time and Impending. This is his opportunity to return to winning form.

The Quarterback is a horse that is racing like he has had enough, but if he does return to a semblance of his best form he is the class horse in this field. He won this race two years ago and his record down the famous Flemington straight is nothing short of outstanding. This is his last chance to show that he still has some zest for racing.

3.5 Units Ball Of Muscle

1 Unit The Quarterback

I like the fact that Sambro is on the quick back-up from the Carbine Club Stakes and he was only narrowly denied by the talented Levendi in that race. His winning record isn’t great, but he has been racing well and he should appreciate the step-up in distance. This is an easier race than the Carbine Club Stakes and this is his opportunity to return to winning form.

2 Units Sambro

It is impossible to go past Aloisia in the 2017 VRC Oaks. She produced an excellent performance to claim a maiden Group 1 victory in the Thousand Guineas and she improved on that effort again to win the Moonee Valley Vase in dominant fashion. The form around her has been very strong and as long as she is able to maintain her form she will be far too strong for this field. Last year was an exception, but the class filly generally does win the VRC Oaks.

The main danger is Pinot and if the track plays the way that it did on Melbourne Cup Day she could prove tough to catch. She did plenty of work early, but she was still able to tough it out to the line in the Ethereal Stakes and you know that Gai Waterhouse will have her rock-hard fit for this race. We still don’t know just how good she is and she makes her own luck right on the speed. I don’t want to lose on the race if she wins.

10 Units Aloisia

1.5 Units Pinot

There is plenty of quality in the Kennedy Plate and I expect it to be a very strong form race going forward. Debonairly won the Woodlands Stakes in very impressive fashion at the end of her Winter campaign and she has won two barrier trials at Royal Randwick ahead of her return to racing. There are a number of fillies with speed and upside in this race, but Debonairly could be the best of them and she is over the odds at the current price of $6.

1.5 Units Debonairly