The 2018 Doomben 10,000 has drawn an outstanding field and some of the best sprinters in the country will square-off in the Group 1 event in Brisbane on Saturday.
The Everest winner Redzel is a clear favourite in our Doomben 10,000 betting market, but he won’t have things his own way against the likes of In Her Time, Impending, Houtzen, English, Le Romain and Care To Think.
Will Redzel claim another Group 1 win?
We have analysed all 14 horses in the field and our complete 2018 Doomben 10,000 tips can be found below.
Redzel has raced well this preparation, but he has not been as dominant as he was during the Spring. Redkirk Warrior ran him down in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and he was no match for Trapeze Artist in the TJ Smith Stakes, but he still produced high-rating performances in both races. The best thing about Redzel is that he always makes his own luck right on the speed and Doomben is an ideal track for him. Add in the fact that he goes into this race without a race start for a month and he does looked primed to run at his best. There is no doubt that he is the horse to beat, but the question is whether you can get him as short as his current price and $2.30 does look rock-bottom odds in a race of this quality.
It wasn’t the easier watch for punters that took the short odds in the Victory Stakes, but Damian Browne eventually found a gap and he was very easy on Impending on the line. He should take a fair bit of improvement from that run and it shouldn’t be forgotten that he was only narrowly beaten by In Her Time and Redzel in his two runs during the Spring. Browne will likely need to take him a fair way back from the wide barrier draw and that is some concern, but there is still some genuine value at the current price of $11.
Le Romain chased home Redzel and In Her Time in the TJ Smith Stakes and he improved again when he stepped-up to 1400 metres for the All Aged Stakes. He was only narrowly denied by Trapeze Artist in that race and he gave Redzel windburn in the TJ Smith Stakes. The barrier is some concern and he will be better suited in the Kingsford Smith Cup, but he is another that will likely run better than his price suggests.
Care To Think
Care To Think was one of the stars of the Brisbane Summer Racing Carnival and his win in the Magic Millions Cup was that of a very good horse. This is easily the toughest race of his racing career to date and the wide barrier draw hasn’t made it any easier, but there is no doubt that he has upside. He will be better suited in the Stradbroke Handicap, but it will be interesting to see how he performs at this level.
Most Important produced one of the best performances of his career to finish second behind Impending in the Victory Stakes. He will likely challenge Redzel for the lead in the early stages and whether he hands up or takes on his rivals could prove essential to the outcome, but I don’t think that he is good enough to win this race.
Spieth has been transferred to the care of the Lindsay Park team after he failed to fire during his 2017 Spring Racing Carnival campaign. He hasn’t been seen at the races since he finished at the tail of the field in the Darley Classic and even his best form is at a level below that of Redzel and In Her Time.
Monsieur Gustave was not disgraced in the Victory Stakes, but it is tough to see him turning the tables on Impending. He is the extreme outsider in this field for a reason.
Burning Passion heads into the Doomben 10,000 on the back of a narrow win in the Hall Mark Stakes. It definitely wasn’t the strongest edition of the Hall Mark Stakes – Dothraki started the race as a clear favourite – and I’m not sure that he is up to this level.
Thronum is an underrated galloper that has produced a number of quality performances this campaign. He won the Australia Stakes first-up at The Valley and he wasn’t beaten far in either the Ladbrokes C.F. Orr Stakes or the William Reid Stakes. The issue for Thronum is that he generally performs at his best when he is able to control the race right on the speed and he won’t be able to do that with Redzel in this field.
Lucky Hussler hasn’t been seen at the races since he finished fifth in the Magic Millions Cup. He did win the Crystal Mile, but he raced fairly flat during his Spring campaign and he is a horse whose best days may be behind him.
It has taken The Mission a while to fire, but he has finished a credible fifth in The Galaxy, TJ Smith Stakes and the All Aged Stakes. He would still need to improve on that level to be a genuine winning chance in the Doomben 10,000.
In Her Time
In Her Time has stamped herself as one of the best sprinters in the country and she is the main danger to Redzel in the Doomben 10,000. Her victory in The Galaxy first-up was nothing short of outstanding and it was a poor ride from Damian Lane that cost her in the TJ Smith Stakes. She doesn’t have to settle as far back in the Doomben 10,000 with Corey Brown in the saddle and she does have a dynamic turn-of-foot. There is no reason that she won’t be in the finish.
English is another horse that comes out of the TJ Smith Stakes and she did not have a great deal of luck. It has been a while since she performed at her best, but she is capable of a high-rating performance on her day and you can’t completely discount her in this contest.
Houtzen didn’t beat the strongest field when she won the PJ Bell Stakes and she was soundly beaten in the Arrowfield Sprint. Regan Bayliss will likely need to ride her aggressively in the early stages of this race and that will make this a tough assignment.