Yes… the evil empire is back on the big stage yet again, deal with it. For a record setting 11th time, the New England Patriots will play in the Super Bowl. As is the case with such a big event, there are plenty of markets on offer so we are going to go through some of the best plays on offer for the New England Patriots in Monday’s Super Bowl.
You can read our LA Rams Betting Preview here.
Also check out our preview of the MVP market here.
Head to Head & Line Plays
Holding a 5-5 record all up in the Super Bowl, the Patriots are favoured for the 18th time this season. Initially the game opened up as a pick but the Pats are now a 2.5 point favourite. In the Brady-Belichick era, the Super Bowls have been decided by three points on four occasions, four points twice, six points once and eight points last year. All in all, it is highly unlikely the Patriots are going to win by 1-2 points so if you like the Pats, take the line, if you like the Rams, take them head to head.
First Touchdown Scorer
The good part about doing this for a team like the Patriots is that with so much recent history in the Super Bowl, there is a lot to go off. In the Brady-Belichick era, New England has scored the first TD in four of the eight Super Bowls. There has been one defensive score (which is at $29 to happen here), two touchdown passes and one rushing touchdown. With a renewed commitment to the ground game, Sony Michel would be the likely play but Rex Burkhead, the player who scored the touchdown to put New England in the Super Bowl is the better value option.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
In what could very well be his final game in the NFL, Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is an interesting option as a value play. He has been involved in three Super Bowls in that time, scoring three touchdowns across Super Bowls 49 and 52. At $2.80 he is the best recommended play, as is James White at even money, considering he does just about everything on the biggest stage. For a value play, take a look at Brady himself, he is not afraid to dive in around the goalline and is worth a shot at $9.
Tom Brady Passing Props
Over the past two years, Brady has set the two highest passing yardage totals in Super Bowl history, tallying 466 yards against Atlanta and 505 against Philadelphia. He also threw for over 300 yards against Seattle three years ago as well. If the Patriots are going to win this game, they will run a lot of plays which generally equates to a lot of attempts for Brady. A lot of attempts for Brady means a lot of yards and over 290.5 yards looks like a decent play (if you like the Patriots to win).
Patriots Rushing Props
One of the few Patriots without a Super Bowl history to go off, rookie running back Sony Michel has been a driving force for New England this postseason. With 129 yards against the LA Chargers and 113 against the Chiefs, it’s fair to think Michel is a good chance of eclipsing the 76.5 marker. The problem with that is when he comes onto the field, it is blatantly obvious the Patriots are running the ball and the Rams defence is good enough to stop a run they know is coming. Depending on the game you think will unfold, Michel rushing might be better to steer clear of, otherwise take the under.
Patriots Receiving Props
Two players jump out immediately in the Patriots receiving props markets, Julian Edleman and James White. A favourite of Brady, Edelman is likely to see a lot of the ball, especially on third down, the guy nicknamed (by himself) the Squirrel has already tallied 16 catches for 247 yards in two games. His number of 6.5 looks way too low here and is worth pounding the over there. Another over worth taking, if you’re expecting a lot of passes is James White over 50.5 receiving yards.
Team Total Points
For the last 12 seasons, New England has been lead by its highly productive offence and to win this game, there is every chance they will need to score in the 30’s. As it happens there is a total points line set at 31.5 and the over is paying $2.50. The Patriots have scored 34 and 33 points in their last two Super Bowls and with the firepower on the Rams side, they might need to score even more to get up in this one.