Rugby Union’s premier event heads to Japan for the first time with the All Blacks as clear favourites to win their third straight Rugby World Cup.
The next big challengers in the market are England and South Africa, both
of whom are looking to add to their trophy cabinets after last winning in 2003 and
2007 respectively.
On the home front, the Wallabies haven’t had a great build up but will
be counting on a pre-tournament training camp from coach Michael Cheika to get
them into shape.
In our 2019 Rugby World Cup Tournament Preview, we’ll run through all 20 teams and look at the best betting strategies to take for each team.
POOL A
IRELAND
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $11
It’s a match made in heaven, Ireland and a quarter final exit at the
Rugby World Cup.
Of the eight World Cups, the Irish have been eliminated at that stage
seven times, the one exception being a pool stage exit in 2007.
In 2015 they were upset by Argentina after winning their pool, but they
head into this tournament as the surprise top ranked team, although those should
be taken more as an approximation instead of a reliable guide.
Ireland is the clear top side in Pool A and the market reflects that,
instead of going all in on a pre-tournament bet back them to win & cover in
each game until we hit the knockout stages.
Back Ireland on a game by game basis
SCOTLAND
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $81
Out of all the sides taking part in the Rugby World Cup, Scotland is the
side that there isn’t really a whole lot of value in any of the betting
markets.
They won’t finish ahead of Ireland to win Pool A, their form is pretty
poor at the moment and the most likely scenario of finishing runner up and then
losing in the quarter final stage both has odds under even money.
In that case, look to back Scotland on a game by game basis and keep a
particular eye on their clash with Japan which could be pivotal for both sides.
Back Scotland on a game by game basis
JAPAN
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $251
The tournament hosts will undoubtedly want to put on a show and have a
chance at building some early momentum with a cakewalk opener against Russia.
They are the clear third favourites in this group but could capitalise
on an Irish or Scottish (the latter seeming more likely) slip up.
On the side, expect a lot of “look how much we love rugby” in response
to the Sunwolves being axed from Super Rugby.
They should finish third in the group but you hope they can put on a show
for their fans but it will be over after four games when the big boys take
centre stage.
Back Japan to Cover the Line Against Russia
RUSSIA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $1001
Russia probably had the most interesting path to the 2019 Rugby World
Cup, only qualifying thanks to mass points deductions applied to Romania, Spain
and Belgium in the Rugby Europe Championship.
So consider this: Russia wasn’t good enough to qualify ahead of Romania,
Spain and Belgium based solely on results, and now they’re at the Rugby World
Cup.
This should be a team that goes five for five… in the losses department.
Back against Russia to Cover the Line in Every Game
SAMOA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $501
It’s a long time gone since the days of Brian Lima getting Samoa to the
quarter finals in their first two Rugby World Cup appearances.
Since then it’s been four straight pool stage exits but they have never
gone through a tournament without winning a single game.
That one chance should come against Russia where the Samoans should win
that game by a lot.
Back Samoa to cover the line against Russia
POOL B
NEW ZEALAND
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $2.38
The two-time defending champions enter the 2019 tournament as clear
favourites to complete a hat-trick of titles and claim their nation’s fourth
World Cup.
While New Zealand rugby’s 2019 can be described as disjointed at times,
it has been at least in part deliberately done with one eye on emerging victorious
in Yokohama in about six weeks from now.
Yes the Crusaders still won the Super Rugby and they retained the
Bledisloe Cup (again) but there were moments where they looked… almost human
and perhaps vulnerable.
Then you remember that back in 2011 and 2015 they had those “wake up call”
losses in the build up to the World Cup and that had them firing come the end
of the year.
Of course even then, it’s too hard to back against them and if world
rugby’s dominant force is going to look like a dominant force again, you may as
well profit off it.
Back New Zealand to Win the World Cup @ $2.38
SOUTH AFRICA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $5.00
The Springboks are coming off winning the Rugby Championship which
should be a good sign for their form heading into the World Cup.
Except for the fact no team has been able to complete the Southern
Hemisphere/Rugby World Cup double in a single year, the closest side was
Australia four years ago which lost the World Cup Final.
The draw hasn’t been kind to the Springboks either, pairing them with
the All Blacks in Pool B but on the plus side for them, that does mean that
they won’t face them in the knockout stages until a possible rematch in the
final.
Assuming the draw plays out as expected, their path to that final could
also shield them from England in the knockout stages as well and their path to
the final could have them trying to get by Ireland followed by Australia,
France or Argentina.
For that reason, the value play for the Springboks is to back them to
make the final against the All Blacks, which could be the two best sides in the
tournament.
Back New Zealand/South Africa as the World Cup Finalists @ $3.75
ITALY
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $501
Italian rugby’s growth has been somewhat stunted in the last few years
as they struggled to compete in the Six Nations, losing every match in that
tournament since the last Rugby World Cup.
The Azzuri’s only win in 2019 came against Russia in a warm up match, by
a huge 85-15 margin but all that shows is they can beat the smaller nations and
will struggle against the big sides.
Don’t be at all surprised if they finish with two wins and two losses but
a hugely negative points differential after being on the receiving end of some huge
scorelines from New Zealand and South Africa.
Back against Italy against New Zealand and South Africa
NAMIBIA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $1001
Namibia has made six straight World Cups and their record in the
previous five… Played: 19 games, Lost: 19 games.
Good on them for making it but we definitely won’t be backing them to pick
up its first win in this tournament.
Back Against Namibia to Cover the Line in Every Game
CANADA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $1001
Canada has made every single World Cup to this stage and even managed a
quarter final appearance in 1991.
It’s highly unlikely that will be repeated here considering they have won
just four World Cup matches since then and have been drawn in a pool with New
Zealand and South Africa.
Maybe they beat Namibia in their final Pool match, but by that stage that
side will probably just want to be heading home.
Back Canada to Beat Namibia
POOL C
ENGLAND
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $5.00
England go into this tournament as the Northern Hemisphere’s best chance
of winning the Webb Ellis Cup.
After their embarrassing early exit in 2015, they have turned themselves
around, thanks in large part to the hiring of Eddie Jones and a much more disciplined
approach.
As equal second favourites with South Africa, the English are at a very short
price to win Pool C which might actually be the worst case scenario for them.
It would book them in for a quarter final against the Pool D runner up
which will most likely be Wales (who beat them 21-13 in the Six Nations) or
Australia, who knocked them out of the 2015 tournament.
Should they survive that, New Zealand will be waiting for them in the
semi final which, in all honesty, is probably where their tournament ends.
Whoever wins that match would be favoured to take out the final so if
you have confidence in the English, then consider backing them as your second
World Cup winner value bet knowing that if the All Blacks do win it, you’ll be
covered in that market.
Back England to Win the World Cup @ $5.00
FRANCE
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $26
If you want to find the vulnerable “big” rugby nation, it’s got to be the
French, after a poor Six Nations campaign, they have a tough pool to navigate
here.
They finished fourth in the European tournament including blowing a 16-0
halftime lead at home to Wales.
If they manage to beat Argentina first up, that should get them over the
line although a loss isn’t the end of the world if they can then come back and
beat the English later on, like they did in February.
You have to back the history of the French here though, they have never
failed to make the knockout stages and they should be able to survive the challenge
of Argentina.
If they do though, it will be a quarter final exit as the Pool D winner
should be able to account for them.
Back France to be Eliminated in the Quarter Final @ $2.38
ARGENTINA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $41
Argentina is in the midst of its best ever year of rugby union with the
bulk of their Rugby World Cup squad making the Super Rugby Final with the
Jaguares and a near upset of the All Blacks in The Rugby Championship.
There are two big concerns about this side though and the first is
around the possibility of player burnout, it’s been a long season and they have
travelled a lot of kilometres already and put a lot of emotion into their games
so far.
Even after (kind of) punting on their two away games in The Rugby
Championship in an attempt to rest some of their squad, you have to wonder how
much they have left in the tank.
The draw has not been kind to them either, placing them with European
powerhouses England and France.
If the French continue their uneven form though from the Six Nations
though, Argentina has shown significant growth in the last few years to give
you some confidence that they can take advantage of a side that is below par.
Because of that, it’s worth a bet on them to qualify through Pool C as
the runner up since it’s going to be them or France so the return is there.
Back Argentina as the Pool C Runner Up @ $2.75
USA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $1001
The US might dominate at a lot of sports, gridiron, baseball,
basketball, occasionally ice hocky and a few Winter Olympics events but that
doesn’t extend into rugby union.
After defeating Canada in the North American playoff, the US qualified
for its sixth straight World Cup and eighth tournament all up.
In their World Cup history, they have lost 22 of 25 matches and never
made it out of pool play.
In terms of competition their only chance of a win might be against
Tonga, otherwise the Americans will be an afterthought here.
Avoid backing the USA
TONGA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $1001
Every so often Tonga springs an upset against a top flight nation but it’s
hard to see them being overly competitive in this tournament.
As we just said for the USA, their only chance of a win will be when
they play the Americans, otherwise Tonga will probably be used as a points
differential booster, even though they are coached by Wallabies legend Toutai
Kefu.
Back against Tonga to cover the line against England, France & Argentina
POOL D
AUSTRALIA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $13
It’s been an uneven build up for the Wallabies over the last couple of
years, 2018 saw their worst year of results in a long time and 2019 has seen more
off field headlines for the sacking of Israel Folau as for their on-field play.
We did see reason for optimism in Perth when they not only beat but beat
by a lot the (14-man) All Blacks team.
That was bookended by bad losses in South Africa and Perth which shows
why you won’t see this side in the Final.
They’ll have no trouble beating lower ranked teams like Georgia and
Uruguay in the pool stage but may not cover the 50-odd point line due to a lack
of attacking firepower, especially if
When you look at this team, there is one painful question you just can’t
answer, “what’s the one thing they do well?”
If they do go deep in the tournament, it will be because they overachieve
by grinding out results and just having more effort than their opponent.
Their September 29 clash with Wales will be the make or break for their
campaign as that will be to decide who wins the group and who gets the
(slightly) easier knockout stage draw.
In a bit of a show of blind faith, I’ll back Michael Chieka to have this
side ready to roll in Tokyo and come away Pool winners and then let that ride
into the knockouts.
Back Australia to Win Pool D @ $2.10
WALES
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $11
Which Welsh side are we going to get this tournament?
Is it the side that went 14 games undefeated to briefly hold the world
number one ranking earlier this year?
Or perhaps it’s the one that lost three of its four warm up matches
against England and Ireland.
There’s also disruption in the coaching ranks with an assistant coach
sent home before the tournament kicked off.
For this tournament they are favoured to win Pool D but there are too
many red flags to consider them worthy of being such a short price.
Plus they haven’t got a great recent record against Australia with their
win last November ending a 13 game losing streak against the Wallabies which
included two World Cup matches.
Wales might be the better team on paper but the Wallabies have had their
number so take the value of the Welsh to finish as runners up.
Back Wales to be Pool C Runners Up @ $2.38
GEORGIA
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $501
Georgia qualified for the 2019 Rugby World Cup thanks to a third place
finish in its group in 2015 after beating Tonga and Namibia.
It will be their fifth straight appearance and the first time they have
qualified automatically for the World Cup.
Unfortunately for them though, they will be in for a rough time here going
down to Australia, Wales and Fiji, their only real chance for a win will be
when they take on Uruguay on September 29.
Bet Against Georgia on the Line Against Australia, Wales and Fiji
FIJI
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $251
Fiji is probably the strongest of the Pacific Island nations in the
Rugby World Cup but they have not received any favours from the draw.
It seems very likely they will finish in third place in the group, well
clear of Georgia and Uruguay and they should be able to play Australia close in
Game 1 if the Wallabies aren’t completely at the races.
It will be a case of four games and out for the Fijians so enjoy
watching them while you can, but look to back them game to game.
Back Fiji Game to Game
URUGUAY
WORLD CUP WINNER ODDS: $1001
Uruguay qualified for its fourth Rugby World Cup appearance and will
serve as glorified training runs for the games against Australia and Wales.
They qualified after going winning all eight games in Americas qualifying
including a two legged playoff against Canada.
For them, this tournament will be about losing by not a lot of points.
Bet Against Uruguay on the Line Against Australia, Wales and Fiji