5 Lessons Learned – NFL Week 7

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One yard, it seemed so harmless at the time but it might prove to be the most costly yard in the entire NFL season.

It knocked Patrick Mahomes out of the Chiefs game in Denver and at least takes him out of the next couple of games.

In a weekend of big storylines amongst a season of injuries, losing the most exciting player in recent memory looms as the most costly injury of the season.

Of course it was not the only storyline and we have picked out our five biggest from Week 7 of the season here.

1 – Where to Now for KC?

Maybe it’s the Madden Curse, maybe it’s the Year After a Historically Good Season Curse (see Tom Brady in 08 & Peyton Manning in 2014), maybe it’s somewhere between the two, or it might just be dumb luck.

Either way, the Chiefs have to navigate a tough few weeks with Matt Moore operating the offence, so it’s probably all doom and gloom for the Chiefs right?

Maybe not, that team is still loaded with talent around whoever is playing quarterback and Andy Reid has been able to navigate injuries before, remember when we thought Kevin Kolb was the next big thing?

Even Moore has shown the ability to function in a short sample size, Reid is smart enough to not ask him to do the things only Mahomes is capable of and just keep it simple.

The Chiefs will suffer with the loss of Mahomes but they have the talent to still be competitive, if everyone else fires.

What we probably will see is the Chiefs being made underdogs for the first time since Week 11 last season and the total points market on their games drop back to the league average.

The bigger area of concern though is what state Mahomes will return to action in.

If he comes back early and is a little bit limited in terms of mobility, you might have to continue backing the Chiefs as though Moore is still the quarterback, as a pure pocket passer who can’t run around he’s not quite as magical.

In short, don’t cash out your Chiefs season bets just yet if you have confidence in Mahomes to come back at full fitness, if he’s on form come January they can light up any team, anywhere.

2 – Underdogs Covering Well So Far

Going into week 7, backing the underdogs at the line had proved to be a great play, but for the first time all season, the favourites won against the spread.

Of the 14 games, the favourites won 11 and covered in 10 of those after having a prior best record of 7-8 against the spread in Week 5.

Overall though, you’d be running at a slight profit if you had backed the underdogs to cover most weeks.

With 60 underdog covers through 106 games if you had backed the underdog to cover in every game you’d be running at a 108.6% return.

The big question from here on out though is whether or not teams like Miami will continue to face absurdly big lines that are easy to cover, even for a team more interested in their draft pick.

3 – Check the Weather

Heavy rain turned the game between Washington & San Francisco into a slog as both sides decided to keep the ball on the ground.

What unfolded was a mercifully short two and a half hour game that probably ruined quite a lot of betting plays if you took the 49ers at the line.

It always helps to check the weather forecast in case some sort of massive event is going to really alter the way the game is played.

Light drizzle like we saw in Arizona-Giants shouldn’t change your strategy much but when it’s a proper downpour, snowing or really windy you might have to lower your offensive expectations and really consider the under.

With it getting colder, games in places like Chicago, New England, Buffalo and Green Bay see the weather becoming a much greater factor.

This week though, weather won’t be an issue for Washington with a Thursday Night game in Minnesota.

4 – A Brees Blowing Back?

It came up on the broadcast of Saints-Bears and has since been reported by other outlets but Drew Brees will return to practice after injuring his thumb in Week 2.

Not that his team have really missed him winning all five starts with Teddy Bridgewater under centre but it makes that team even more dangerous going forward.

The Saints coaching staff may opt to hold off until after the Saints bye in Week 9 but whenever Brees does come back, the Saints can only be considered a must back most weeks.

5 – It’s a Wide Open NFC Field

The AFC remains a race to take on New England in the AFC Championship, at least for the time being, but if you have a clear idea on the NFC, you’re doing better than most.

San Francisco leads the way (record wise) but how can you not love what the Saints are doing without Drew Brees?

Seattle took a bit of a blow this week but you know they will be in the mix in January and of course there’s the Packers who just had Aaron Rodgers throw for five touchdowns and stroll in for another.

Not to mention the Cowboys who just blasted the Eagles out of Jerry World and will clap their way into a playoff berth if that keeps up.

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.