The Trump Guide – January Edition

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Like the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup, the US Presidential Election only happens once every four years.

On paper that is.

Let’s face it – the 2020 US Presidential election campaign has been in full swing ever since Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton, which many didn’t predict – except for us.

In our 2016 US Presidential Election preview, our very own Resident Rainman backed Donald Trump to win at $4.50 in a two-horse race!

WE TIPPED THIS! The Ladbrokes 2016 US Presidential Election Form Guide was on the money.

The 2020 US Presidential Election will actually be held in November (the day after the Melbourne Cup AU time) but unlike elections here they are a very long and drawn-out process.

Firstly there are things like the Iowa Caucus, State of the Union, New Hampshire primaries, Super Tuesday, Democratic National Convention – where the Democratic Nominee for President/Vice President will be announced, Republican National Convention, Early Voting, Presidential Debates, Vice Presidential Debates and the actual election day.

Oh, and Donald Trump is currently up for an impeachment trial in the Senate which as of the time of publishing looks like he won’t be leaving the Oval Office until at least this time next year.

It’s a far cry from a five-week campaign and a Saturday sausage sizzle here in Australia and it’s basically a sport within itself but longer and possibly more dramatic than a best of seven NBA/World Series playoff.

While it may be early in the year, we’ve got plenty of markets available and look to find some winners in what will be the first edition of our Trump betting blog.

Winner:

Donald Trump is currently the red-hot favourite to win four more years and we’ve already taken a $12K bet at $2 for him to be returned.

Many pundits have also declared that Trump will win.

He appears home and hosed, just ask him.

But US Elections aren’t as easy to predict and polls all over the world have been constantly proven wrong by the time of the actual ballot.

With the Democrats still yet to pick just who will take Trump on in November, and factoring in how divisive the political climate is and the fact voting isn’t compulsory in America, right now I’m going with an Each/Way bet between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

BACK Donald Trump @ $1.73

BACK Joe Biden @ $5

2020 Specials

We currently have eight different outcomes to bet on in our 2020 Presidential Election specials market (odds correct at time of publish):

  • Trump to NOT be re-elected @ $2.10
  • Trump to win by further than 2016 (over 304 electoral college votes) @ $2.25
  • Mike Pence to NOT be the VP nominee @ $4
  • Trump to lose popular vote but be re-elected @ $5
  • Trump to win over 50% of the Popular Vote @ $5
  • Trump NOT to be Republican nominee @ $7
  • No Presidential election to be held in 2020 @ $26
  • Trump to win 50 states @ $67

Given the volatile state of US politics, any of these options are possible for the year ahead. For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out to be a similar result to 2016 in where the Democrat candidate wins the popular vote but Trump gets the Electoral College votes to give him another four years.

BACK Donald Trump to lose popular vote but be re-elected @ $5

Democratic Nominee

The Democrats have had no shortage of people putting their hand up to take on Trump with the list of candidates chopping/changing almost on a daily basis.
At present, the likes of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden are the leading contenders.
For what it’s worth, Democrats may want to play it safe and make Joe Biden – Vice President to Barack Obama – their nominee.
Trump thinks so as well, hence why he’s currently facing an impeachment trial in the US Senate.
Biden is known, has been around the traps for a long time and has ties with Obama.
He may not be the messiah that some in team Blue is looking for, but he’s a safe bet – even in this market.

Back Joe Biden @ $3.50

Democratic Vice President Nominee:

Firstly, rule out Bernie Sanders to become the VP nominee.

A Bernie and Biden ticket would see two 77 year olds run and Bernie is his own man.

It’s not going to happen.

The current bickering between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren probably isn’t going to encourage Biden (who I’ve backed to get the nomination) to ask either to run as the ticket come convention time.

Californian Senator Kamala Harris has rose to prominence with her campaign for President which she has recently dropped out of – due to lack of funds.

Should Joe Biden run for President she’d tick a lot of boxes for Democratic voters wanting a more progressive candidate with her stances on health care reform and legalizing marijuana that will appeal to voters the Democrats need to get out and vote.

Back Kamala Harris @ $5

Iowa Caucus

So join in the Caucus, and sing it one and all!

This is where the first votes for the 2020 Presidential Election season kicks in on February 4th and gives us an indication as to who may take on Trump come November.

Forget about the opinion polls, fake news or whoever you believe – this is where you can get some actual meaningful insight.

For Iowa, all I can predict is to feel the Bern.

Hillary Clinton’s recent declining to endorse Sanders will only help his plight in this one.

Back Bernie Sanders @ $2.50

Iowa Tri Cast

In this, you can back the first three – a trifecta if you will as to what the finishing order will be in Iowa.

Biden is the favourite to win, but we’re backing Bernie to get up in Round 1.

We figure it’ll be close between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden with Elizabeth Warren coming into third place.

BACK 1. SANDERS 2. BIDEN 3. WARREN @ $9

Republican Nominee

He might be in the Oval Office, but Donald Trump still needs the endorsement of the GOP (Republicans) at their convention in August.

A lot can change in eight months, and there are some republicans making a tilt for getting the endorsement.

However, in this market – Trump is as safe as (white) houses.

No Bet

Straight Forecast

If you think you know how the election in November is already going to play out, we’ve got you covered.
My tips are divided to please people who love Trump and people who hate Trump.

LOVE TRUMP – Back Trump beats Biden @ $3.50
HATE TRUMP – Back Biden to beat Trump @ $6

Trump Popular Vote

The hot takes, fake news, real news, FOX news and polls suggest that Trump will romp it home in November.
Trump’s victory in 2016 was actually a narrow win and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes.
For what it’s worth, I feel Trump will have enough rusted-on supporters that will back him leading to around the 40-45% mark at this stage.
Happy to take it at the current $3.75 price.

Back Trump To Get 40-45% Of The Popular Vote @ $3.25

Winning Party

The safest bet right now is the GOP, but the Democrats are also a decent bet at $2.10

As has been the trend in most elections of recent, conservative parties are winning and winning comfortably.

Back Republicans @ $1.73

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.