2020 brings the end of an era in Super Rugby, it’s the final
season of the much maligned conference system with the competition set to
contract to 14 teams in 2021.
After four largely underwhelming seasons, the Sunwolves are on
a farewell tour before being joinig the Western Force, Cheetahs and Kings on
the redundancy pile.
With this season being a post-World Cup tournament, there is
plenty of turnover across every Super Rugby team with a lot of players headed
to Europe (and funnily enough Japanese club rugby) in search of a payday.
As is always the case, the Super Rugby Champions market is
dominated by the New Zealand sides with five of the top six teams hailing from
the land of the long white cloud.
South African teams will still be basking in the glow of the
nation’s World Cup triumph in Japan last November while the Australian teams
will just be hoping to do… anything of note when the season kicks off on
January 31.
Finding good value in the Super Rugby markets can be quite tough but we’ve studied the offseason moves and trial form of all 15 teams and found our plays right here.
Australian Conference
Brumbies
Title Odds: $19.00
Conference Odds: $2.50
Hands down Australia’s best performing Super Rugby side over
the last five years and possibly in the history of the competition, the
Brumbies could be in for a downturn of fortunes in 2020.
Last season a semi-final in Argentina was a bridge too far
but a second straight conference title is definitely a possibility, even if just
by default.
Their forward pack, which powered so much of their success
in recent years took a huge hit with Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Christian
Lealiifano and most notably David Pocock all leaving for overseas contracts,
although they did alright without Pocock last season.
You have to take trial form with a grain of salt but that patented
rolling maul still looks like it will be tough to stop and it always helps
having a reliable Plan A.
They still have a handful of impact players who will need to
step up but it would be a bad idea to write them off automatically.
Back the Brumbies to Win the Australian Conference @ $2.50
Rebels
Title Odds: $21.00
Conference Odds: $3.00
Some might say that the only reason the Rebels are
competitive is because they were able to absorb most of the decent players from
the Western Force and after some steady improvement, it’s time to deliver in Melbourne.
Last year they started off very well before fading badly down
the stretch, taking just one point from their final four games to fall from
certain finalists in fifth to eleventh overall.
There have been quite a few departures and the impact that
losing players like Will Genia and Quade Cooper will have is up for debate but
it’s certain that they are short on experience and depth at some key positions.
Until the Rebels actually give us a reason to feel confident
in calling them the best Australian side from start to finish it’s hard to back
them with any confidence.
Back the Rebels to Miss the Finals @ $2.05
Waratahs
Title Odds: $34.00
Conference Odds: $6.00
2019 didn’t really pan out the way the Waratahs would have
hoped for but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances
this season.
Despite a few departures their forward pack is still looking
pretty strong with Wallabies captain Michael Hooper and team captain Rob
Simmons leading the pack.
There’s good reason to be concerned about their untested
halves combination with Jake Gordon and Mack Mason getting first crack at
replacing Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley who have both moved overseas.
The good news for Tahs fans though is the fact that they
have plenty of depth outside of those two to help guide them through the early
stages of the season.
With a favourable draw as well, there is no reason why they
can’t put themselves in position to make the finals once again, especially as
they get their brutal trip to Christchurch out of the way in Round 1 and a good
run of games until their South African tour in Round 10.
Back the Waratahs to Make the Finals @ $3.25
Reds
Title Odds: $101
Conference Odds: $4.50
Let’s not sugar coat this, it’s put up or shut up time in
Brisbane, third year coach Brad Thorn has to start producing results with the
time for “honourable losses” coming to an end last June.
Losing captain Samu Kerevi to Japan is a huge hit to the
squad however as they don’t seem to have a readymade wrecking ball in the
centres to take over.
Instead James O’Connor is back from the UK and supposedly
hungry to make an impact, which should bring a bit more variety to the attack
compared to Kerevi’s “just run over them” philosophy that worked really well.
Teen sensation Jordan Petaia will also be very keen to make
up for missing pretty much all of last season and presents a dynamic threat
either in the centres or on the wing.
We have seen flashes of potential over the last few seasons
with the Reds, picking up some momentous wins but also falling short in other
key moments.
Finals have to be the bare minimum pass mark at Ballymore
this season and while winning the Australian Conference might be a step too
far, getting to eight or nine wins should get them into the finals.
Back the Reds to Make the Finals @ $3.25
Sunwolves
Title Odds: $501
Conference Odds: $101
Let’s just take a look at the Sunwolves Super Rugby resume:
Four seasons, 61 games played for eight wins and a draw, with three wooden
spoons and a best finish of 17th out of 18 teams in 2017.
That’s exactly why the Sunwolves will continue to be the
competition’s easybeats and there’s little to no chance of them finishing with
a flourish.
Maybe they will be competitive against the spread early but
once you hit late April, early May and the writing’s on the wall with the
moving boxes being brought into the team facility, don’t be surprised if they
give up and concede quite a few basketball scores.
There’s not a lot of value backing the Sunwolves to be the
worst team in Super Rugby this season, but it looks like the safest bet of the
entire competition.
Back the Sunwolves to Have the Least Season Wins @ $1.20
New Zealand Conference
Crusaders
Title Odds: $2.63
Conference Odds: $1.75
The Crusaders are still the team to beat in Super Rugby as
they look to become the first team to win four straight titles.
In 2001 when they tried for a fourth straight title it was a
nightmare season, finishing tenth out of 12 teams with four wins and seven
losses.
That feat won’t be repeated here, they will make the finals
and be in the mix for the New Zealand Conference and probably the top overall
seed.
Yes they lost a few big name players, the likes of Kieran
Read, Sam Whitelock and Ryan Crotty will be tough to replace but given they
seemingly have a factory somewhere in Christchurch that produces top quality
players, can you count them out?
Much like the Patriots in the NFL and the Storm in the NRL,
if you’re sick of seeing the Crusaders win, you may as well have an insurance
bet on them to at least make some money if you have to endure another Crusaders
title.
Back the Crusaders to Win the Super Rugby Title @ $2.63
Chiefs
Title Odds: $4.50
Conference Odds: $3.50
This Chiefs side will look a little different compared to
what we became used to in the last few seasons.
Brodie Retallick, Stephen Donald, Jack Debreczeni, &
Marty McKenzie have all departed but the players that have left could be offset
by possibly the biggest recruiting coup of the offseason.
Warran Gatland will return to New Zealand after 12 years
coaching Wales and two tours with the British and Irish Lions.
His first job will be to shore up a side that gave up 465
points last season, far and away the worst in New Zealand and the tied third
worst total in the competition.
If he can do that the Chiefs might just be the best placed
side to challenge the Crusaders for overall Super Rugby honours and if not we’re
at least going to have fun backing the over.
Back the Chiefs to Make the Grand Final @ $3.00
Hurricanes
Title Odds: $7.00
Conference Odds: $6.00
Oh, the joys of the Super Rugby Conference system, last year
the Hurricanes finished on 53 points, the second highest total in the
competition but were the fourth seed in the Finals as the best of the rest.
What would have made that even tougher to swallow is the
fact they had the most wins (12) of any team last season and only missed out on
the top seed because they picked up just three bonus points compared to the
Crusaders eight.
They will need to find a way to pick up a few more bonus
points this season if they have their sights set on the minor premiership,
although losing Beauden Barrett to the Blues will be a tough loss to overcome.
Thankfully whoever does take over the flyhalf role will
basically just have to get the job to the very, very talented group of players
outside of him, or just let the forwards roll.
There is just one big question surrounding the Hurricanes
and it is whether or not they can replicate last year’s winning form and with
that squad coming back, there is no reason to think they won’t be in the mix
come June.
Prediction: Hurricanes to make the Finals ($1.15)
Blues
Title Odds: $11.00
Conference Odds: $21.00
It’s not all sunshine and roses in Kiwi rugby, they do have
the Blue haired stepchild playing out of Eden Park stopping a complete Kiwi
takeover.
Their struggles can be at least partly attributed to playing
four pretty good New Zealand sides twice per year but with just nine wins in
the past two seasons, they need to get better this year.
Luring Beauden Barrett across from the Hurricanes gives them
a top notch flyhalf to guide them around the field and help them improve one of
the worst attacks in the competition.
A good season for the Blues would to get themselves to eight
wins and hover around the bottom end of the finals picture and maybe sneak in
as fodder for whoever takes out the New Zealand conference in the first round.
They should improve this season but having half their games
in conference does put them at a big disadvantage and should leave them chasing
a Finals spot.
Back the Blues to Miss the Finals @ $2.50
Highlanders
Title Odds: $15.00
Conference Odds: $15.00
Let’s get this out of the way early, the Highlanders are in
contention to have one of the bigger drop offs in Super Rugby if a couple of
things go wrong for them.
They have had a huge post-World Cup squad overhaul losing Luke
Whitelock, Liam Squire, Marty Banks & Ben Smith and putting the team firmly
in rebuild mode.
Don’t be at all surprised if their six season finals run
comes to an end here considering they only just snuck in by a point last
season.
All things going well they maintain the status quo and are
in that 7th to 10th range but a double-digit finishing
position is not out of the question.
What that does mean is that especially in the early rounds,
the market might be slow to catch up to their slump and if they are favoured by
too much, you could do well to back against them.
Back the Highlanders to Miss the Finals @ $3.50
South African Conference
Jaguares
Title Odds: $10.00
Conference Odds: $2.00
Overall, the Jaguares would have been pretty satisfied with
how their 2019 Super Rugby campaign unfolded.
They won the South African conference for the first time,
won their first finals game and made their first Grand Final.
While a handful of players have departed they do have a
solid base of experience to call on in the squad to complement the handful of
local talent coming through as well.
On paper they do look like a side that will be in the mix
once again, they’re a great shot of winning the conference but they need to
maintain their strong road form which has been the basis of their success in recent
years.
Their downfall could come from the fact this team is based
so much on the emotion and will of the players, there’s a chance they could
have a bit of a hangover from such a draining 2019 but I like their chances of
topping the conference again.
Back the Jaguares to Win the South African Conference @ $2.00
Lions
Title Odds: $17.00
Conference Odds: $7.00
After a few seasons flying at the top of the South African
Conference, 2019 was a come back to earth season for the Lions.
They fell apart defensively, conceding 478 points and 64
tries, both the second worst tallies in the competition ahead of only the
Sunwolves.
It was their attacking flair that kept them in the finals
mix and allowed them to finish in ninth.
The key, like in previous years, is what sort of season we
are going to get from Elton Jantjies, the guy who has the ability to dominate
Super Rugby if he is on his game or a massive liability if not.
If nothing else you will have fun backing the over in Lions
games and they do still have the firepower to stay in games where they give up
30 points but at best they’ll be competing for that 7th or 8th
spot but I’m not confident enough to back that to happen.
Back Overs in the Lions Games
Stormers
Title Odds: $26.00
Conference Odds: $3.75
It’s a big season for the Stormers franchise as they prepare
to bid farewell to their Newlands home ground before moving into the Cape Town
7’s Stadium.
New coach John Dobson is bringing in a totally new
philosophy to this squad prioritising results over style so don’t be at all
surprised if their games are low scoring tactical kicking battles.
That does at least make the under a worthwhile punt in most
games as well, but for them to be competitive, Springboks captain Siya Kolisi
will need to not only back up his World Cup performances but get some help from
the rest of the squad.
That style should be enough to get them home in a fair few
of their games, chances are they won’t have the firepower to compete with the
top New Zealand sides but against the Aussies, their defence should be able to
suffocate the life out of most attacks.
Back the Stormers to Make the Finals @ $1.80
Sharks
Title Odds: $34.00
Conference Odds: $10.00
Consistency was the biggest issue for the Sharks in 2019,
they were capable of putting up 40 or conceding 40 depending on what sort of
mood they were in come kickoff.
If they want to compete for honours in 2020 they will need
to find a way to string back to back wins together this season, something they
could only manage in Rounds 1 and 2 last season.
There’s a whole lot of change for the squad with 15 players
moving on and Sean Everitt the new head coach coming from the Currie Cup while
JP Pietersen returns to the team and likely his regular spot on the wing.
At best this seems like a squad that’s still very much in
development rather than one that will be competing for honours come June.
With the second shortest odds of missing the finals, it’s
not worth putting anything on that to happen if you’re looking for value but
there’s not a lot of reason for optimism to back the opposite.
Prediction: Sharks to Miss the Finals ($1.30)
Bulls
Title Odds: $41.00
Conference Odds: $8.00
A mass exodus from the forward pack will give the Bulls a
lot to overcome in 2020 with the likes of Schalk Brits, Lood de Jager, RG
Snyman and Duane Vermeulen all leaving for greener pastures.
Flyhalf Handre Pollard has also left but he will be replaced
by Morne Steyn, back from a French sojurn.
While lock Juandre Kruger will bring some experience to the
forward pack after 6 years in France, there’s just a lot of unknowns about this
team.
It’s definitely going to be a rebuilding season in Pretoria
and a bottom of the conference finish seems quite likely.
Prediction: Bulls to Miss the Finals ($1.45)