NFL Free Agency Betting Review

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NFL free agency has provided a nice distraction during these uncertain times with plenty of old faces landing in new places right around the league.

Often rumours regarding free agency turn out to be nothing more than wishful thinking, but this year we’ve seen several predictions come true as the likes of Tom Brady and Philip Rivers have found new homes.

These moves often have a direct impact on NFL futures betting and several teams have already firmed in our Super Bowl market. We’ve taken a look at all the big-name signings and revealed their betting moves below.

Las Vegas Raiders 

Marcus Mariota

Ryan Tannehill’s four-year, $118 million extension basically left no room for the Titans to retain Mariota as their backup. He’ll now head to Las Vegas to play second string behind Derek Carr (at least for the time being), leaving some to suggest that the two-year, $17.6 million deal was a little rich.

Mariota’s accuracy issues are the main concern, but at 26, there’s still plenty of upside. Gruden has been a fan of the No. 2 overall pick since his broadcasting days, and he might finally have a player that can light a fire underneath Carr’s backside in training camp. 

Jason Witten

The 16-year veteran will play on in 2020 as he departs the Cowboys for a second time.

Witten will embark on a one-year contract with the Raiders where he’ll likely play nothing more than a backup role behind breakout superstar Darren Waller. Still, depth was an issue for Jon Gruden last year, so paying a bonafide red zone stud like Witten $4 million isn’t a bad move. 

Super Bowl Odds:

  • Before Free Agency: $40.00
  • Currently: $51.00

Houston Texans 

David Johnson

The lifespan of an NFL running back continues to dwindle, as David Johnson found out the hard way this offseason.

Four years ago Johnson rushed for 1,200 yards before a wrist injury cost him most of the 2017 season. He bounced back a year later for 900 yards but struggled to find snaps last season in Kliff Kingsbury’s new-look air-raid offence. 

Johnson was traded to the Texans this season in exchange for star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a handful of others. With two years left on his current deal, it was considered one of the most shocking offseason trades of all-time that well and truly shook up the futures market. 

Randall Cobb

Randall Cobb wasn’t the most exciting name on the table, but he could turn out to be a steal when you consider just how consistent he’s proven to be.

Cobb won’t even come close to replacing DeAndre Hopkins’ numbers, but he again proved himself a valuable asset in the slot last year catching for over 800-yards for the first time since 2015.

Aside from adding some leadership to Bill O’Brien’s new-look offence, Cobb’s speed combined with Keke Coutee, Will Fuller and Kenny Stills also makes Houston a handful. 

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $50.00
  • Currently: $41

Cleveland Browns 

Austin Hooper

The Browns might have won the offseason with this move alone if they can somehow keep the rest of the band together. 

Hooper is widely considered as the third-best tight end in the league and is coming off a career-high 787 yard, six-touchdown season. Matt Ryan obviously played a part, but the addition of Hooper gives Baker Mayfield another reliable set of hands to throw to under new offensively-minded head coach, Kevin Stefanski. 

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $33.00
  • Currently: $26.00

Chicago Bears 

Jimmy Graham

The Bears will be hoping to pick Jimmy Graham’s brain this season after spending two years in Green Bay. 

Aside from reeling in the game-winning pass against the Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Game though, Graham’s tenure with the Packers was largely unproductive. Fortunately, he won’t be starting in Chicago anytime soon, but this is still a short term solution to a long term problem.

For many teams, the lack of depth at the tight end position in this year’s draft has forced them to overpay veterans. Graham will contribute here and there, but two years on $16 million? Ouch. 

Nick Foles

One of the NFL’s worst contracts came to an abrupt end when the Bears announced they’d traded for Nick Foles. 

Jacksonville paid Foles over $15 million last year to play in only four games after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 1. His absence allowed Gardner Minshew to showcase his talents, which eventually sold head coach Doug Marrone as to who the future was under center. 

From Chicago’s perspective, this is basically the final gun to Mitch Trubisky’s head. It’s hard to know for sure how long the leash is, but after making the NFC Championship Game in 2018 and failing to make the playoffs last year, it’s now painfully clear that the Bears are preparing for the worst. 

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $40.00
  • Currently: $34.00

Arizona Cardinals 

DeAndre Hopkins

Whenever a team signs the league’s best wide receiver you can fully expect them to firm in futures betting. 

Since 2013 (the same year he debuted), Hopkins ranks third in receiving yards and second behind Antonio Brown in receiving touchdowns. Adding him to an already lethal mix of receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, KeeSean Johnson and Christian Kirk makes this a scary proposition for the rest of the NFC West. 

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $50.00
  • Currently: $41.00

Indianapolis Colts 

Philip Rivers

The Colts have obviously seen enough of the all-too safe Jacoby Brissett and opted to bring in some veteran leadership to steer them in the right direction.

After 15 years with the Chargers, Philip Rivers will suit up on a one-year, $25 million ‘prove it’ deal in Indianapolis as his long search for a Super Bowl ring continues.

The Colts are a very talented team, but their window for success is closing in a very tough division. Rivers is a ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’ type quarterback who threw 20 interceptions for the third time in his career last season. Maybe a fresh change of scenery will do the trick.

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $28.00
  • Currently: $21.00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady

Nineteen years of unmatched brilliance. Yeah… this one will take some getting used to.

Brady bid farewell to the Patriots last week before signing a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nobody is arguing that Brady has plenty left in the tank, but can he really add another Lombardi to the cabinet with a team that hasn’t finished above .500 since 2016?

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were obvious selling points for Brady as he prepares to play with one of the best wide receiver duos in his entire career. Bruce Arians is also a very creative coach that loves to play high-risk football, while Tampa Bay’s defence also allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league last year.

So, in a nutshell, yes… he might just do it all again. 

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $18.00
  • Currently:: $17.00

Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs

Diggs became a prime candidate for a trade last season when he aired his displeasure with the passing game in Minnesota. 

Brad Zimmer’s run-first approach didn’t sit well with Diggs as he caught for only 91 yards across his first three games, so he should feel right at home in Buffalo as the Bills look to up the ante in their passing game. 

Josh Allen is another high-risk type quarterback that isn’t afraid to go deep. Unfortunately, the Bills struggled in the air last year ranking bottom 10 in passing yards and touchdowns, so adding a player of Diggs’ calibre should push them even further towards winning their first playoff game since 1995.

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $28.00
  • Currently: $19.00

Carolina Panthers 

Teddy Bridgewater

Drew Brees wasted no time taking to Instagram to announce that he’ll play on in New Orleans, which left the Saints in a tricky spot after Teddy Bridgewater won five games in Brees’ absence last year. 

Speaking of tricky spots, the Carolina Panthers also found themselves in a jam after Cam Newton missed most of last season due to a linsfranc fracture, leaving many to assume the team would eventually move on from their long-time starter. 

Despite conflicting accounts, the Panthers gave permission for Newton to seek a trade and wasted no time signing Bridgewater to a three-year, $63 million contract before trading Kyle Allen to the Redskins for a fifth-round pick.

On one hand, that’s a lot of money to pay a guy who has a lengthy injury history, but on the other, Bridgewater’s style of play means the Panthers can basically pick up where they left off with Cam.

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $70.00
  • Currently: $67.00

New Orleans Saints

Emmanuel Sanders 

Sanders played a big part in San Francisco’s Super Bowl run last year after joining the Niners midway through the season, and it’s seemingly helped his cause considering the Saints felt comfortable signing the 10-year veteran to a two-year deal. 

While the days of Sanders catching for over 1,000 yards appear to be over, he’s still managed back-to-back 800-yard seasons with the Broncos and Niners. Pairing him alongside Michael Thomas should also make Brees more comfortable in the pocket.

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $14.00
  • Currently: $13.00

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill

After leading the team all the way to the AFC Championship Game last season, Tennessee signed Ryan Tannehill to a lavish four-year extension worth up to $118 million.

It goes without saying that this is a lot of money to pay for a small sample size and a quarterback with an extensive injury history, but at the same time, the Titans and Tannehill seemed to gel rather nicely last season, so it’s worth seeing how far this thing can go.

Also, Tennessee played it smart by slapping the non-exclusive franchise tag on last seasons leading rusher, Derrick Henry. For those unaware, that means he can still receive offers from other teams while the Titans have until July 10 to sign him to an extension or pay him $10.2 million this season.

Atlanta Falcons 

Todd Gurley

Alls well that ends well in Atlanta. 

After parting ways with Devonta Freeman a fortnight ago, the Falcons landed on their feet by quickly snapping up Todd Gurley on the open market.

Gurley was considered a top-three running back only two years ago, so his release from Los Angeles certainly caught everyone off guard. Reoccurring knee issues made the decision rather easy, but it’s still crazy to think that the 2017 Offensive Player of the Year was actually cut loose.

For the Falcons, this is a gamble worth taking after ranking 30th in rushing yards last year. If Gurley can stay healthy, there’s every chance he rediscovers his reputation as a one-man wrecking ball whilst also adding some much-needed protection in the passing game. 

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $40.00
  • Currently: $34.00

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott

The Cowboys placed the exclusive franchise tag on quarterback Dak Prescott, meaning a) no other team will be able to sign him while the two sides negotiate a new contract, and b) Dak will play in Dallas for at least one more season.

Without getting too technical, Dak wants to be the highest-paid quarterback in the league as well as a long term extension. Dallas offered him $33 million a year before applying the tag, but the two sides are yet to discuss any sort of extension since.

This is one of the more interesting stories to follow day by day as Dallas’ lack of urgency to resign one of the league’s Top 10 quarterbacks continues.

Super Bowl Odds

  • Before Free Agency: $18.00
  • Currently: $17.00

…Those Remaining

  • Devonta Freeman
  • Jadeveon Clowney
  • Cam Newton
  • Jameis Winston
  • Ndamukong Suh
Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.