The Brownlow Bubble: AFL Round 6


It’s been another wacky week in Brownlow betting following Matt Rowell’s devastating injury and Steele Sidebottom’s off the field antics. 

Meanwhile, Lachie Neale is starting to put a gap between himself and the rest of the field as the price continues to shorten.

Patrick Cripps remains the only other single-priced chance in the market, while names like Patrick Dangerfield and Dusty Martin continue to drift. 

Here’s a look at who we voted for in Round 5 and some analysis on the top chances in this week’s edition of The Brownlow Bubble. 

Round 5 Votes

Carlton v St Kilda

Player Votes
Jack Billings3 votes
Jack Steele2 votes
Patrick Cripps1 vote

Collingwood v Essendon

Player Votes
Dylan Shiel3 votes
Adam Treloar2 votes
Jake Stringer1 vote

West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans

Oscar Allen3 votes
Dom Sheed2 votes
Elliot Yeo1 vote

Geelong Cats v Gold Coast Suns

Joel Selwood3 votes
Tom Hawkins2 votes
Sam Menegola1 vote

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Josh Bruce3 votes
Tim English2 votes
Jack Macrae1 vote

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide

Lachie Neale3 votes
Jarryd Lyons2 votes
Jarrod Berry1 vote

Adelaide Crows v Fremantle

Michael Walters3 votes
Matt Crouch2 votes
Rory Lobb1 vote

Melbourne v Richmond

Kane Lambert3 votes
Tom Lynch2 votes
Clayton Oliver1 vote

GWS Giants v Hawthorn

Harry Himmelberg3 votes
Josh Kelly2 votes
Jeremy Finlayson1 vote

Lachie Neale – $4.00 $3.00

Neale was the only player to firm in Brownlow betting at the conclusion of Round 5, so things are really starting to turn into a one-horse race. 

The 27-year-old fell a disposal shy of 30 last week against Port, but he made up for it with a last-minute goal in Brisbane’s 37-point victory.

Neale currently ranks first in contested possessions, effective disposals and total disposals, and  he’ll have another opportunity to shine bright on the big stage on Thursday night against Geelong – a team he’s averaged 24 disposals against.

Whether or not he earns all three Brownlow votes against the likes of Selwood and Dangerfield is another story, but Neale is easily the front-runner from here on out. 

Patrick Cripps – $6.50 $8.00

Cripps’ numbers haven’t really stacked up to the consistent production of Lachie Neale, but from an overall perspective, he’s still doing plenty right. 

The youngster ranks first in total clearances, second in contested possessions and sixth in score involvements, but there is one stat that continues to let him down: turnovers. 

Cripps currently ranks 17th in the league in turnovers, largely due to some of the struggles through the Carlton midfield. He’s still polling votes, but at this rate, he’s still got some work to do. 

Patrick Dangerfield – $9.00 $12.00

Another quiet game against the Suns last week has left Dangerfield on the drift heading into Round 6.

The dual Brownlow Medalist came up with 11 contested possessions, but he’s yet to crack 25 disposals so far. 

With things changing drastically from week to week there’s certainly room for Danger to improve, but Geelong’s upcoming schedule does make things tricky. 

Andrew Gaff – $41.00 

Gaff has fallen off a cliff in the market, but it’s worth noting he still ranks second in average disposals behind Lachie Neale. 

Last weeks game against Sydney was far from his best, but he is a name to keep an eye on moving forward with West Coast set to return home to Perth in a fortnight’s time. 

The Eagles also face the Crows this week, a team Gaff has averaged a touch under 28 disposals against. He’ll need to improve in other statistical areas, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him firm over the comings weeks. 

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.