The Brownlow Bubble: AFL Round 9


We’ve seen a case of dejavu unfold in the Brownlow market this week with three of last week’s familiar faces firming in the market. 

Lachie Neale and two Melbourne superstars, Christian Petracca and Max Gawn, have been the major movers in betting, while we’ve also seen a slight drift for Patrick Cripps. 

With 33 games over the next 20 days, there is no better time to load up on a few roughies in this wild season.

To give you a leg up, we’ve provided you with our Round 8 votes and some analysis on the key movers in this week’s edition of The Brownlow Bubble below.  

Our Round 8 Votes

Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs

Jack Macrae3 votes
Touk Miller2 votes
Caleb Daniel1 vote

GWS Giants v Richmond

Toby Greene3 votes
Josh Kelly2 votes
Dustin Martin1 vote

North Melbourne v Carlton

Jared Polec3 votes
Matthew Kennedy2 votes
Will Setterfield1 vote

Sydney Swans v Hawthorn

Tom Papley3 votes
Jake Lloyd2 votes
Jaeger O’Meara1 vote

Port Adelaide v St Kilda

Dan Butler3 votes
Jade Gresham2 votes
Zak Jones1 vote

Adelaide Crows v Essendon

Zach Merrett3 votes
Andrew McGrath2 votes
Lachlan Murphy1 vote

West Coast Eagles v Collingwood

Josh Kennedy3 votes
Andrew Gaff2 votes
Oscar Allen1 vote

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

Lachie Neale3 votes
Christian Petracca2 votes
Jake Melksham1 vote

Fremantle v Geelong Cats

Cameron Guthrie3 votes
Andrew Brayshaw2 votes
Mitch Duncan1 vote

Lachie Neale – $2.75 $2.50

Another week, another slight firm for the Brisbane superstar. 

After a bit of a quiet game in the win over the Giants a fortnight ago, Neale exploded for 33 disposals and seven clearances last week in the narrow win over the Demons. 

The effort looks even more special when you consider the game was played in very wet conditions at Metricon, the same venue that will host the Bombers and Lions on Friday night. 

Neale has faced the Bombers nine times previously and has averaged 17.4 disposals and close to four tackles. The crazy upcoming schedule could make things interesting in the market, but Neale still has Charlie wrapped up for now. 

Christian Petracca – $13.00 $10.00

It’s crazy to think Petracca was as long as $26.00 only two weeks ago. 

The Melbourne midfielder appears to be one of the biggest dangers to Lachie Neale as he continues to put up big numbers on a weekly basis, much like he did last week with 24 touches and a season-high eight tackles in the loss to the Lions. 

Petracca has been likened to Dusty Martin recently, and it’s not hard to see why. 

He currently ranks fifth in total handballs, third in score involvements and fifth in contested possessions per-game. 

If you live in Queensland, it’s worth making an effort to go out and watch him on Thursday when the Dees take on Port. 

Patrick Cripps – $9.00 $12.00

Cripps has been the only major drifter in the market this week. 

The Blues are winning games, so he probably won’t mind, but it is a little concerning to think he hasn’t surpassed 25 disposals or kicked a goal in the last three weeks.

Carlton takes on the hapless Hawks on Friday at Optus. 

Cripps was enormous against Hawthorn in last year’s Round 6 thriller in Launceston where he clocked 28 disposals and nine tackles, so maybe he’ll turn things around this week.

Max Gawn – $21.00 $15.00

Could a ruckman actually take out the Brownlow?

It would take something extra special from here, but the way the big Gawn continues to firm in the market suggests he might come very close!

Gawn firmed from $34.00 into $21.00 last week, and he’s seen another trim into $15.00 following another big game last week against Brisbane. 

Gawn finished with 41 hitouts, five tackles, two contested marks and 13 disposals – all in a day’s work for the skipper. 

Aside from Port Adelaide this week, the Dees face a very favourable couple of weeks ahead with games against the Crows and North, so you expect to hear his name called often on Brownlow night. 

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.