It’s fair to say that a lot has happened since we first published “The Trump Guide” way back in January.
In fact, the whole world has changed completely since Ladbrokes own Resident Rainman tipped Donald Trump at long odds as his best value bet back in 2016!
We’re now only just 42 days out from the OTHER first Tuesday in November and the race for the White House in the 2020 US Presidential Election is still anyone’s guess.
We study the state of play in our 2020 US Presidential Markets in the penulitmate edition of the Trump Guide.
Trump v Biden
Both Trump and Biden are out on the campaign trial, drumming up support from the American people.
Campaigning is very different from the usual pressing the flesh and big rallies in stadiums for obvious reasons, however, Trump still persists with his trademark rallies.
Early voting is already in play in some US States and the first televised debate between Trump and Biden will take place on September 30 (AU time).
At present, the 2020 presdiential election winner has Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the narrow $1.80 favourite to win this election.
Trump is currently $2, however, after the Republican convention earlier in the month he was the $1.83 favourite with Biden out to $2 from $1.67
The 2020 Election winner is very close and the market leader does regularly change.
Poll predictor FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Joe Biden has a 77 in 100 chance of winning the election, whereas Donald Trump has 23 in 100. Although, we have seen this movie before.
Another issue that is at play is the makeup of the US supreme court with the death of Superme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
This leaves an opening for Donald Trump and the Republicans to confirm her replacement before the election, giving a conservative majority.
What effect this will have on the election outcome is probably minimal – so avoid the hot takes and the Washington bubble talk – the average Joe (not Biden) living in the Swing State would take zero notice.
At present, for the best value – Trump on the even money is the best bet depending on how you feel as the president.
Here at Ladbrokes, we think as punters first and foremost.
LOVE TRUMP: Back Donald Trump to win US Presidential Election @ $2
HATE TRUMP: Back Joe Biden to win US Presidential Election @ $1.80
Powered by the best political bookmakers in the business, our mates over at Ladbrokes UK have provided a wide range of great value and comprehensive markets.
There’s more than just who wins the election at play and there’s plenty of value for the punters in what will be a frenzy of Melbourne Cup, US Presidential Election and State of Origin in a 48 hour period.
Here are just some of the markets worth considering:
Trump to lose popular vote but be re-elected @ $2.88
Anyone who doesn’t like Donald Trump will instantly remind you that Hillary won the popular vote in 2016, but managed to get the magic 270 mark to become the President of the United States of America.
Trump plays to win and win at all costs.
Do not rule out this outcome yet again and the current price of $2.88 is outstanding value, especially if you’re team Trump.
Trump to win any state not won in 2016 @ $2.25
There’s the swing states – the likes of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at play.
Recent polls had Biden ahead in those Swing states.
Trump needs to get all of these states on board and perhaps pick up another state to find himself in the White House for another four years.
Worth considering and great value at the current price.
Democrats to win control of House, Senate & White House @ $2.10
While it very much contradicts our other bets, if you’ve got a feeling that the Trump administration is a one-term job – perhaps the 2020 blue wave is on the cards.
The polls suggest that is very much the case, but polls haven’t really proven their worth around the world of recent.
However, the Democrats have performed well in mid-term and state elections across the USA in the past couple of years and is also a matter of who and which base turns out and votes given it’s not compulsory in America.
As mentioned earlier, it’s the swing states that will decide who will win this election.
It’s also where you’ll find some really good value bets across the board and where election night 2020 will be focused in on.
Some polls already have Biden ahead in the 12 Swing States which could either be won by the Republicans or Democrats and ultimately decide the election.
Some of our markets, like Florida are dead even although the polls have Biden ahead.
We’ve looked at the ones considered the Swing States with the hope of finding a winner.
ARIZONA – Back Democrats @ $1.60
FLORIDA – Back Republicans @ $1.91
GEORGIA – Back Democrats @ $2.88
IOWA – Back Republicans @ $1.36
MAINE – Back Democrats @ $1.20
MICHIGAN – Back Republicans @ $2.62
MINNESOTA – Back Democrats @ $1.33
NEVADA – Back Democrats @ $1.33
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Back Democrats @ $1.36
NORTH CAROLINA – Back Republicans @ $1.73
OHIO – Back Republicans @ $1.40
PENNSYLVANIA – Back Republicans @ $2.55
TEXAS – Back Democrats @ $3.50
WISCONSIN – Back Republicans @ $2.25
The first debate between Trump and Biden will be moderated by Chris Wallace from FOX News and will take place next Tuesday – Wednesday morning Australian time.
The topics selected for the first debate are “The Trump and Biden Records,” “The Supreme Court,” “Covid-19,” “The Economy,” “Race and Violence in our Cities,” and “The Integrity of the Election,” according to the Commission on Presidential Debates.
Each segment lasts for around 15 minutes, the candidates have two minutes to respond adter the moderator opens each segment with a question.
Chris Wallace will then use the rest of the time to allow Trump and Biden to discuss further on each topic.
Trump’s performances in the presdiential debates back in 2016 and even the Republican nominations in 2015 were epic (depending on who you ask) and he’s not affraid to play the man as well as the ball.
We could offer $1.01 for Trump to claim he won the debate regardless of the outcome.
While the debate is being moderated by a FOX News presenter, Chris Wallace is a proper reporter rather than opinion show host and our market is based on the CNN snap poll.
All roads lead to a Biden victory in the first debate and he’s the clear $1.40 favourite in this market.
Back Joe Biden to win First Debate @ $1.40