Five Lessons Learnt – AFL Semi Finals


1. Big Forwards Win Finals

This was true in both semi finals on the weekend with both Tom Lynch for Richmond and Tom Hawkins for Geelong, playing pivotal roles for their respective sides.

There were many of football commentators and experts criticizing the performance of the 2020 Coleman Medalist heading into Geelong’s do or die Semi Final against Collingwood on Saturday night but the big Cat responded with 4.1 from 17 disposals including nine marks (two contested).

Hawkins and Dangerfield combined for eight goals and 15 score involvements.

The Tigers too looked a different outfit with their key forward Tom Lynch back in the side.

He kicked just the 2.5 but the Richmond forward line was structurally far better with him in the side with the likes of Shai Bolton, Shane Edwards and Daniel Rioli benefiting greatly from the big man’s presence.

Lynch had 17 disposals (10 contested), six marks and six inside 50s to go with his two goals. And one knee drop.

2. The Power Have The Worst Bottom Six Of The Remaining Teams

Geelong proved just how important it is to have depth within your list when the majority of their team contributed against the Pies on Saturday night.

They brought in Sam Simpson for Tom Atkins with immediate results as the young midfielder racked up 16 possessions.

The Cats had 13 of the top 15 possession winners on the ground highlighting how important it is in finals for every member of the team to contribute.

It is incredibly hard to split the remaining four teams but it may come down to which team has the most depth.

It is very important to have talented and consistent stars in your team and the Power certainly tick that box with the likes of Travis Boak, Charlie Dixon, Ollie Wines, Tom Rockliff and Brad Ebert.

But out of the four teams left, do they have the worst bottom six players?

3. Jordan De Goey For Jeremy Cameron Makes Perfect Sense

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley has assured supporters and the media that Jordan De Goey is staying at the Lexus Centre from 2021 onward but the rumours continue to circulate about trade options.

The Pies had kicked one goal to three quarter time on Saturday night at the Gabba in their do-or-die Semi Final against the Cats, raising questions about their scoring ability.

This is not a new revelation about Buckley’s Magpies either.

They have struggled to score all year and after their horrible performance Buckley admitted they were in need of a key forward.

Enter Jeremy Cameron into the debate.

Have the Pies got all they need out of De Goey? Has he lived up to his potential in the Black and White?

Or can they use him as trade bait to secure one of the best key forwards in recent years down south?

4. Lachie Neale Will Win The Norm Smith Medal

If Brisbane defeat Geelong this weekend to progress to their first Grand Final since 2004, and win, Lachie Neale will win the Norm Smith Medal.

The Brisbane midfielder is Winx-like-odds to secure his first Brownlow Medal after a devastating 2020 campaign and has been the catalyst for the Lion’s recent success since arriving at the club.

He is currently $9.00 to win the Norm Smith Medal but that price will be sliced considerably if the Lions win.

Let’s not kid anyone. We will all be having a Norm Smith Medal bet come Grand Final day so why not capitalize now and have an early bet at the enhanced price.

Dustin Martin is $10, Dangerfield $10, Tom Hawkins $21 and Charlie Cameron at $34!

5. This Is The Most Even Top Four In Modern History

We are heading into the penultimate weekend of the 2020 AFL season and the majority of the football public still have no idea who will win the premiership.

Neither do the punters.

The Brisbane Lions head Premiership betting ($3.40), followed by Richmond ($4.00), Port Adelaide ($4.20) and Geelong ($4.50).

The Lions will have the added benefit of playing in front of their home crowd on Saturday night and are currently $1.73 (-4.5) to beat the Cats who are $2.10 (+4.5).

There is very little between the two teams playing for their spot in the Grand Final on Friday evening as well.

Port Adelaide are $1.88 (-1.5) to progress to their first Grand Final since 2007 against Richmond who are $1.94 (+1.5).

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