The Brownlow Medal will have a different feel to it this year as the AFL sets aside the red carpet in favour of a virtual stream broadcast live from Gillon McLachlan’s base in Queensland on Sunday night.
Lachie Neale feels like a guaranteed certainty to take home the honours in what might turn out to be one of the most lopsided Brownlow’s in AFL history.
With the Lions midfielder at such a short quote, punters have a difficult task on their hands in the hunt for some value.
Fortunately, if you’ve kept up with our Brownlow Bubble posts throughout the year, you’ll know there are several dark horses worth betting on in the team markets to help you come out on top.
For a detailed look at our votes and top betting picks, be sure to read our 2020 Brownlow Medal Preview below.
Our Suggested 2020 Brownlow Medal Bets
- Winning Margin: 7-10 Votes @ $3.25
- Without Lachie Neale: Jack Steele @ $6.50
- Brownlow Group A: Patrick Dangerfield @ $3.50
- Top 5: Patrick Dangerfield @ $4.00
Our Top 10 Leaderboard
|Nat Fyfe||2||1||1|| ||2|| || || || ||1||2||3||2||14|
|Sam Menegola|| || || ||2||1||2|| ||1|| ||2||2|| || ||2|| ||2||14|
|Marcus Bontempelli||3|| ||1|| || || 1||3||2||2||1||13|
Lachie Neale is well on his way to the Charlie with a sizeable margin between himself and St Kilda’s Jack Steele.
Neale played in all 18 games during the regular season and was the catalyst for Brisbane’s continued success averaging just over 27 disposals a game.
Some might find it slightly surprising to find Jack Steele ahead of Christian Petracca and Travis Boak on our leaderboard, but the Saints’ midfielder has really flown under the radar in several key areas.
Steele finished sixth in handballs, third in tackles, tenth in disposals and sixth in clearances, which by our count, was good enough to earn him the top number of votes on three occasions.
That isn’t to knock Petracca and Boak though as the pair have (and were) consistently brilliant in their own right.
Petracca was drawing comparisons to Dusty midway through the season, while it’s fair to say Port Adelaide wouldn’t have come close to a minor premiership without the week in, week out production of the 32-year-old Boak.
Tip: Lachie Neale @ $1.25
Adelaide Crows Betting
|Matt Crouch||2||1|| ||2||1|| ||1||7|
Rory Laird is the favourite to lead the way for the Crows, but after Matt Crouch’s strong end to the season, there really isn’t as much separating the two as far as betting goes.
Crouch finished fifth in average disposals this season and was simply enormous against the Tigers in Round 18.
The 25-year-old should poll strongly towards the later rounds, making him a good bet at the current quote.
Tip: Matt Crouch @ $2.75
Brisbane Lions Betting
|Jarryd Lyons|| || ||1|| ||2|| || || ||2||2|| ||2|| ||9|
|Hugh McCluggage|| || || ||1||2||1|| || || || || ||1|| || ||5|
Tip: Lachie Neale @ $1.35
Bit of value here if you’re a fan of Cripper.
Now entering his prime, the 25-year-old hardly had the season we expected, but we’re tipping he still polls okay based on namesake alone.
Tip: Patrick Cripps @ $2.00
|Scott Pendlebury||1||3||1||3|| ||1||9|
|Steele Sidebottom|| ||2||3|| || ||1|| ||6|
Sidebottom was well and truly in the Brownlow conversation before his suspension, which only leaves Taylor Adams as the logical choice.
Tip: Taylor Adams @ $1.45
Tip: Zach Merrett @ $1.10
|Andrew Brayshaw|| || ||2||1||2||2||1||1|| || || ||9|
|David Mundy|| || || ||3|| || ||2|| ||1|| ||2|| ||8|
Tip: Nat Fyfe @ $1.20
Geelong Cats Betting
|Sam Menegola|| ||2||1||2|| ||1||2||2|| || || ||2||2||14|
|Cameron Guthrie|| || || || || ||3||3|| ||1||2||1|| ||1|| ||11|
It’s definitely a two-horse race in the Geelong market, but the edge has to go to Danger after picking up the slack midway through the year.
The 2016 Brownlow Medalist was a little quiet to start the year but still played a massive part in Geelong’s run to the Preliminary Final.
You know he’ll poll well with the umpires, so the price on offer here is rather generous.
Tip: Patrick Dangerfield @ $1.85
Gold Coast Suns Betting
|Touk Miller|| ||2||2||2||6|
|Hugh Greenwood|| || || ||3||2||5|
There was actually a point in time where Matt Rowell was Top 3 in Brownlow betting prior to suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Round 5.
It was only a small sample size, but judging by what we saw, the 19-year-old should feature quite prominently in Brownlow voting over the coming years, notepad and all.
Tip: Matt Rowell @ $1.15
GWS Giants Betting
|Josh Kelly||2||1||2||1|| ||6|
|Toby Greene||1||1|| ||3|| || ||5|
Whitfield shone brightly in his eighth year with the Giants despite the club missing finals.
The former No. 1 overall pick finished fourth in uncontested possessions and 17th in average disposals per-game, making Whitfield another great value bet at decent odds.
Tip: Lachie Whitfield @ $1.80
|Chad Wingard||3||2||3|| || ||8|
|Jaeger O’Meara|| ||3|| ||1|| || ||4|
Wingard enjoyed a fast start to the season in front of goal, only to be run down by the 2018 Brownlow Medalist in the second half of the year.
Tip: Tom Mitchell @ $1.25
|Max Gawn|| ||3||2||1||3|| || || ||2|| ||2||1||13|
|Clayton Oliver|| ||1||1||1||1|| 1||2|| || || || ||7|
Tip: Christian Petracca @ $1.04
North Melbourne Betting
|Jared Polec||1||2|| || ||3||6|
|Jed Anderson|| || || || || ||3||2||1||6|
Things are tight among the Shinboners with Jed Anderson at $2.80 and Shaun Higgins @ $3.00.
Both players were extremely efficient averaging just over 21 disposals a game, but we think Anderson might have the edge here after finishing the season ranked 17th in tackles and 35th in contested possessions.
Tip: Jed Anderson @ $2.80
Port Adelaide Betting
|Ollie Wines|| || ||2||2||2|| || ||2||2||1||11|
|Charlie Dixon|| || || ||3||3|| || || ||1|| || ||7|
Tip: Travis Boak
|Kane Lambert|| ||3||3|| || || || || || || ||6|
|Shai Bolton|| ||1||1||2|| ||1|| || ||5|
Tip: Dustin Martin
St Kilda Betting
|Jack Billings||1||3||3||3|| || || || || || || || || ||10|
|Zak Jones||2|| || || ||1|| ||1||3||1|| || || ||8|
Tip: Jack Steele
Sydney Swans Betting
|Josh Kennedy ||1||3|| ||1|| || ||1||6|
|Jake Lloyd|| || || || ||2||1||1||1|| ||4|
Tip: Luke Parker
Western Bulldogs Betting
|Marcus Bontempelli||3|| ||1|| ||1 || ||3||2||2||1||13|
|Tim English||2||2||3|| || || || || || || ||7|
Tip: Jack Macrae @ $1.88
West Coast Eagles Betting
|Nic Naitanui||2||1||2|| ||1||1||3||1||11|
|Andrew Gaff||1||1||2|| ||1||2||7|
Nic Nat looks a little undervalued in the market as the second-elect to Tim Kelly.
The 30-year-old finished fourth in clearances and second in total hitouts, meaning we should see the star ruckman poll extremely well during the later rounds.
Tip: Nic Naitanui @ $2.75