2020 Brownlow Medal Preview

The Brownlow Medal will have a different feel to it this year as the AFL sets aside the red carpet in favour of a virtual stream broadcast live from Gillon McLachlan’s base in Queensland on Sunday night.

Lachie Neale feels like a guaranteed certainty to take home the honours in what might turn out to be one of the most lopsided Brownlow’s in AFL history.

With the Lions midfielder at such a short quote, punters have a difficult task on their hands in the hunt for some value.

Fortunately, if you’ve kept up with our Brownlow Bubble posts throughout the year, you’ll know there are several dark horses worth betting on in the team markets to help you come out on top.

For a detailed look at our votes and top betting picks, be sure to read our 2020 Brownlow Medal Preview below.

Our Suggested 2020 Brownlow Medal Bets

  • Winning Margin: 7-10 Votes @ $3.25
  • Without Lachie Neale: Jack Steele @ $6.50
  • Brownlow Group A: Patrick Dangerfield @ $3.50
  • Top 5: Patrick Dangerfield @ $4.00

Our Top 10 Leaderboard

Lachie Neale233333333227
Jack Steele1213122312321
Christian Petracca1232231211220
Travis Boak32312232118
Patrick Dangerfield1131233317
Jack Macrae123123114
Nat Fyfe211 2    123214
Sam Menegola   212 1 22  2 214
Dustin Martin113321213
Marcus Bontempelli3 1   1322113

Lachie Neale is well on his way to the Charlie with a sizeable margin between himself and St Kilda’s Jack Steele.

Neale played in all 18 games during the regular season and was the catalyst for Brisbane’s continued success averaging just over 27 disposals a game.  

Some might find it slightly surprising to find Jack Steele ahead of Christian Petracca and Travis Boak on our leaderboard, but the Saints’ midfielder has really flown under the radar in several key areas.

Steele finished sixth in handballs, third in tackles, tenth in disposals and sixth in clearances, which by our count, was good enough to earn him the top number of votes on three occasions.

That isn’t to knock Petracca and Boak though as the pair have (and were) consistently brilliant in their own right.

Petracca was drawing comparisons to Dusty midway through the season, while it’s fair to say Port Adelaide wouldn’t have come close to a minor premiership without the week in, week out production of the 32-year-old Boak.  

Tip: Lachie Neale @ $1.25

Adelaide Crows Betting

Matt Crouch21 21 17
Rory Laird22116
Reilly O’Brien112

Rory Laird is the favourite to lead the way for the Crows, but after Matt Crouch’s strong end to the season, there really isn’t as much separating the two as far as betting goes.  

Crouch finished fifth in average disposals this season and was simply enormous against the Tigers in Round 18.

The 25-year-old should poll strongly towards the later rounds, making him a good bet at the current quote.

Tip: Matt Crouch @ $2.75

 Brisbane Lions Betting

Lachie Neale233333333227
Jarryd Lyons  1 2   22 2 9
Hugh McCluggage   121     1  5

Tip: Lachie Neale @ $1.35

Carlton Betting

Patrick Cripps212122210
Sam Walsh12317
Ed Curnow235

Bit of value here if you’re a fan of Cripper.

Now entering his prime, the 25-year-old hardly had the season we expected, but we’re tipping he still polls okay based on namesake alone.

Tip: Patrick Cripps @ $2.00

Collingwood Betting

Taylor Adams22122212
Scott Pendlebury1313 19
Steele Sidebottom 23  1 6

Sidebottom was well and truly in the Brownlow conversation before his suspension, which only leaves Taylor Adams as the logical choice.

Tip: Taylor Adams @ $1.45

Essendon Betting

Zach Merrett33232114
Andrew McGrath2222311
Dylan Shiel2316

Tip: Zach Merrett @ $1.10

Fremantle Betting

Nat Fyfe2112123214
Andrew Brayshaw  212211   9
David Mundy   3  2 1 2 8

Tip: Nat Fyfe @ $1.20

Geelong Cats Betting

Patrick Dangerfield1131233317
Sam Menegola 212 122   2214
Cameron Guthrie     33 121 1 11

It’s definitely a two-horse race in the Geelong market, but the edge has to go to Danger after picking up the slack midway through the year.

The 2016 Brownlow Medalist was a little quiet to start the year but still played a massive part in Geelong’s run to the Preliminary Final.

You know he’ll poll well with the umpires, so the price on offer here is rather generous.

Tip: Patrick Dangerfield @ $1.85

Gold Coast Suns Betting

Matt Rowell3339
Touk Miller 2226
Hugh Greenwood   325

There was actually a point in time where Matt Rowell was Top 3 in Brownlow betting prior to suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Round 5.

It was only a small sample size, but judging by what we saw, the 19-year-old should feature quite prominently in Brownlow voting over the coming years, notepad and all.

Tip: Matt Rowell @ $1.15

GWS Giants Betting

Lachie Whitfield1123119
Josh Kelly2121 6
Toby Greene11 3  5

Whitfield shone brightly in his eighth year with the Giants despite the club missing finals.

The former No. 1 overall pick finished fourth in uncontested possessions and 17th in average disposals per-game, making Whitfield another great value bet at decent odds.

Tip: Lachie Whitfield @ $1.80

Hawthorn Betting

Tom Mitchell23229
Chad Wingard323  8
Jaeger O’Meara 3 1  4

Wingard enjoyed a fast start to the season in front of goal, only to be run down by the 2018 Brownlow Medalist in the second half of the year.

Tip: Tom Mitchell @ $1.25

Melbourne Betting

Christian Petracca1232231211220
Max Gawn 3213   2 2113
Clayton Oliver 1111 12    7

Tip: Christian Petracca @ $1.04

North Melbourne Betting

Shaun Higgins3126
Jared Polec12  36
Jed Anderson     3216

Things are tight among the Shinboners with Jed Anderson at $2.80 and Shaun Higgins @ $3.00.

Both players were extremely efficient averaging just over 21 disposals a game, but we think Anderson might have the edge here after finishing the season ranked 17th in tackles and 35th in contested possessions.

Tip: Jed Anderson @ $2.80

Port Adelaide Betting

Travis Boak32312232118
Ollie Wines  222  22111
Charlie Dixon   33   1  7

Tip: Travis Boak

Richmond Betting

Dustin Martin123321214
Kane Lambert 33       6
Shai Bolton 112 1  5

Tip: Dustin Martin

St Kilda Betting

Jack Steele1213122312321
Jack Billings1333         10
Zak Jones2   1 131   8

Tip: Jack Steele

Sydney Swans Betting

Luke Parker21133313
Josh Kennedy 13 1  16
Jake Lloyd    2111 4

Tip: Luke Parker

Western Bulldogs Betting

Jack Macrae123123114
Marcus Bontempelli3 1  322113
Tim English223       7

Tip: Jack Macrae @ $1.88

West Coast Eagles Betting

Nic Naitanui212 113111
Tim Kelly2221310
Andrew Gaff112 127

Nic Nat looks a little undervalued in the market as the second-elect to Tim Kelly.

The 30-year-old finished fourth in clearances and second in total hitouts, meaning we should see the star ruckman poll extremely well during the later rounds.

Tip: Nic Naitanui @ $2.75

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.