The Brownlow Bubble: AFL Round 5


Beware: these Dogs have bite!

The Brownlow Medal market has taken an interesting turn this week with Marcus Bontempelli resuming his rightful spot as the second-elect to Dustin Martin atop the betting. 

Bont’s mammoth game against the Suns was enough to edge Christian Petracca down the pecking order alongside Travis Boak, while we also saw last year’s Brownlow winner Lachie Neale return to the fold with a scintillating game against the Bombers. 

Not to be outdone, Max Gawn has also firmed significantly in betting following a well-polished game against the Hawks last week. 

To find out who we voted for, as well as all the market movers, be sure to check out our Round 5 edition of The Brownlow Bubble. 

The Brownlow Big Board

Clayton Oliver10$21.00
Taylor Walker9$67.00
Christian Petracca9$9.00
Jack Macrae8$19.00
Travis Boak8$9.00
Tom Mitchell7$15.00
Dustin Martin7$3.75
Ollie Wines7$81.00
David Mundy7$101
Max Gawn7$21.00
Rory Laird6$81.00
Jarryd Lyons6NA
Marcus Bontempelli6$7.50
Errol Gulden5$151
Jack Billings5$151
Nat Fyfe5$15.00
Jack Riewoldt5NA
Jack Steele4$17.00
Zach Merrett4$21.00

Our Round 5 Votes

St Kilda v Richmond

Jack Riewoldt3
Jack Graham2
Dustin Martin1

West Coast Eagles v Collingwood

Jack Darling3
Oscar Allen2
Jack Redden1

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast Suns

Marcus Bontempelli3
Josh Dunkley2
Jack Macrae1

Sydney Swans v GWS Giants

Lance Franklin3
Jacob Hopper2
Josh Kelly1

Carlton v Port Adelaide

Ollie Wines3
Travis Boak2
Sam Walsh1

Brisbane Lions v Essendon

Lachie Neale3
Jarryd Lyons2
Daniel Rich1

Adelaide Crows v Fremantle

David Mundy3
Andrew Brayshaw2
Matt Taberner1

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Max Gawn3
Clayton Oliver2
Christian Petracca1

Geelong Cats v North Melbourne

Brandan Parfitt3
Sam Menegola2
Ben Cunnington1

Marcus Bontempelli – $8.00 – $7.50

Pretty good chance the Bont polled all three votes last week in the Doggies’ romp over the Suns. 

The big man had himself a day out kicking three goals to go with 33 disposals, a performance that has kept in touch with the Top 10 on our leaderboard. 

One might say Bontempelli has been a little quiet over the last few weeks, but it’s more a case of Jack Macrae, Adam Treloar and Josh Bruce overshadowing his work. 

He’ll have a fight on his hands right through to Round 23 for Brownlow votes in Luke Beveridge’s star-studded lineup, but after helping himself to a goal, 16 touches and five tackles last year against GWS, the Bont might be in for another vote or two this week. 

Lachie Neale – $15.00 – $13.00

How nice of Mr Charlie himself to finally join us. 

Neale was outstanding last week in Brisbane’s demolition job over the Bombers, wracking up over 30 disposals for the first time this year with a couple of goals tacked on for good measure. 

By our count, Neale didn’t do enough to poll a vote in the first four rounds, meaning he does have some work to do if he wants to keep touch with Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Dusty.

Still, the Lions face another favourable game this week at Marvel against the Blues, so now might be the time to jump on if you’re after some value. 

Jack Macrae – $21.00 – $19.00 

Looks as though Macrae is starting to get the respect he deserves in the market. 

The 26-year-old is the only player in the league averaging over 35 disposals a game, while he also ranks fourth in goal assists and eighth in contested possessions. 

We knew a couple of years ago Macrae would be in the Brownlow conversation for many years to come, and there’s no question he’s been one of the leading catalysts behind the Bulldogs’ undefeated start to the season. 

He’s probably not a dark horse at this point, but judging by our leaderboard, the $19.00 on offer is a steal. 

Max Gawn – $51.00 – $21.00 

The price firm above tells you all you need to know. 

Gawn’s numbers on paper last week against the Hawks don’t exactly leap out, but after kicking a booming kick from outside 50 in the final term to break Hawthorn’s spirit, there’s no question he picked up all three votes. 

Gawn’s leadership has been key to Melbourne’s perfect 5-0 start, and the Dees will need all of that and more in Saturday’s blockbuster at the ‘G against Richmond. 

With Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca both fighting for votes, this recent spell from Gawn has really made things interesting in the second tier of the market.