5 Lessons Learned – AFL Round 6

1. Melbourne is good


They are real and they’re spectacular.

To all the Melbourne fans reading this – YOU ARE GOOD.

A 6-0 start to the season, high-pressure, star players all flying and boy did they out-Richmond Richmond with a six-goal win on Saturday night. 

Every Dees fan around Australia is up and about with a big smile on their face, they are starting to believe.

These are the Monday’s you crave all of the hot-takes and if you’ve been scrolling looking for more pats on the back the way of the Demons, you’ve come to the right place.

I wonder how the 15 Ladbrokes punters who backed Melbourne at $26 for the flag at the start of the season are feeling right now?

The Dees are now fourth in line for premiership betting at $6.50 and will make it a 7-0 start to 2021 on Sunday when they face the bottom of the ladder Kangaroos with Melbourne opening the betting at $1.02 head to head.

When it comes to following a footy team, the journey can be as fun as the destination and every Melbourne fan should make hay while the sun shines. 

2. ..So are the Bulldogs

Are we going to party like it’s 1954?

The Western Bulldogs have started the season 6-0 with a solid win over GWS, who challenged them on Friday night, but the Dogs ultimately blew them away in the last quarter.

They will go in $1.52 favourites against a defeated and injury-riddled reigning premiers Richmond ($2.55) at the MCG on Friday night. 

Injuries are starting to bite at Whitten Oval as well with Tim English, Josh Dunkley and poor old Lin Jong but it appears they bat-deep.

Will see the debut of no.1 draft pickon Friday night? 

He kicked five goals in the televised VFL game for Footscray on Thursday

 You’d fancy the Dogs against Richmond, but you’d have to be foolish to write off the champions. 

3. Injuries suck 

A real big statement here, I know. 

We mentioned in lesson 2 that injury got the better of poor old Lin Jong on Friday night and then injury got the better of two of the absolute superstars of the game over the weekend.

Lachie Neale suffered an ankle injury in Brisbane’s win over Carlton on Saturday, meaning the reigning Brownlow medalist is likely to miss 6-8 weeks of football.

From a punting perspective, all Brownlow bets are off on Neale who opened the betting to go back-to-back at $6 at the start of the season. 

It’s a shame, but hopefully we’ll see him back on the field later in the season. 

Dustin Martin has been ruled out of Friday night’s game against the Bulldogs with Dusty being ruled out with concussion, but it’s been revealed he’s been nursing an injured foot in recent weeks.

The Tigers will also miss the likes of Dylan Grimes and Dion Prestia.

It’s a better problem to have in April rather than in September.

4. Hawthorn v Adelaide was game of the Round

Now, we could look into the likes of how other contenders Port Adelaide and Geelong fared on the weekend or we can look back and smile with what transpired in the Hawks v Crows clash Launceston. 

The 1pm Sunday off-broadway clash between two sides that are not likely to feature in the finals was an absolute delight to watch. 

End-to-end, fast ball movement, high-scoring, accurate – especially in the case of the Crows 15 goals without a behind, defense thrown out the window, red footy in the daytime, the stunning five goals on debut from Adelaide’s Riley Thilthorpe and five goals on the other end from Hawk Jacob Koschitzke.

Hawthorn was able to come back from 32 points in the third quarter, finishing with a 15-12 (102) to 16-3 (99) win in their Tassie fortress. 

Imagine if there was hindsight multis? Back the Over, Jacob Koschitzke to score 2+ goals @ $2.85 and Riley Thilthorpe @ $2.45 to score 2+ Goals. If only. 

Both of these young guns (Thilthorpe – $11, Koschitzke $26) are worth considering for the Rising Star this year.

If you wanna watch a replay of any game from Round 6, 2021 – Hawthorn v Adelaide is top billing. 

5. Collingwood isn’t good. 

We all know what’s transpiring at Collingwood.

If you are a Magpies fan and you’re reading this – you’ve clearly been doom scrolling.

While you are 17th on the ladder this week, the Pies are now equal 6th on the line of wooden spoon betting at $21, $5 to make the eight, $26 for the top four and $51 for the miracle turnaround premiership.

The good news is, we’ve got the Pies down as $1.40 favorites as they host the Gold Coast Suns ($3) this Saturday arvo at the MCG.

I’m not going to do a deep-dive into the problems at the Magpies, but my best tip is to stop reading articles like this and give all of the talkback radio and Monday night footy shows a miss.

The same advice applies to supporters of the West Coast Eagles and St Kilda. 

Tips, recommendations and commentary are for entertainment only. We provide no warranty about accuracy or completeness. You should make your own assessment before placing a bet.