Time for five lessons from a punters’ perspective after a big weekend of footy.
While we’d all love a hindsight bet, we can always take in a few learnings heading into Round 9.
(1) There is No Clear Flag Favourite
Season 2021 is proving to be a horrible one for hot takes and jumping to conclusions.
Take Friday night’s game between Richmond and Geelong for example.
One week the Tigers sent a statement to the competition that they mean business, only to be defeated soundly by the Cats.
As for Geelong, people were still questioning their ability, so they produced their best game of the season against the Tigers with the likes of Jeremy Cameron and Gary Rohan proving their worth.
Melbourne remains unbeaten 8-0, the Western Bulldogs stormed home in the last quarter against the Blues, Port dominated in the Showdown, West Coast got the job done away from Perth and the Lions continue to chalk up the wins.
One week you’re hot, the next you’re not.
The only indication you’ll get for a market leader for the flag is our premiership futures markets which currently has FOUR equal favorites.
Richmond, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne are all in the top line of betting at $5.50, with Geelong a solid $7 and the Brisbane Lions $10.
Perhaps backing the winner of the flag this year could be just a case of pure luck.
(2) Back the Blues at the margin
If you’re not following Channel 7’s master of stats (and Bruce McAvaney’s right hand man) Josh Kay on Twitter, you don’t know what you’re missing.
Much will be written and said about Carlton’s performance/fade out yesterday, but perhaps the lesson for punters here is to always consider taking the Blues at the line or for/against in the 1-39 point margin.
As for the rest of what’s happening with David Teague and his men at Princes Park, it’s best to read the other bullet point recaps from the weekend’s footy.
(3) Worst First Quarter Ever
The First Goal Kicker market was very much in play for an extended period of time during Sunday’s Hawthorn v West Coast clash at the MCG.
The Quarter time score was Hawthorn 0-3 (3) to West Coast 0-5 (5), a horrendous result for a game played in perfect conditions and the first opening term at the home of football to go without a goal in over 50 years.
It was truly horrible but worthy of the 1 pm slot on Mother’s Day however, this was a quarter of football more worthy of evil step-mother’s day.
Eventually, the first goal would be kicked 3:45 into the second quarter when Eagle Brendon Ah Chee slotted one through the big sticks – much to the delight of anyone who backed him for the first goal at the $23 price.
The Eagles went on to have a seven-goal second quarter and cruised home for a 38-point much needed win outside of Perth.
(4) You CAN Trust Someone With Two First Names
Gary Rohan and Jeremy Cameron.
Two blokes with two first names who were amongst the Cats best in their big win over the Tigers on Friday night.
Gary Rohan reminded everyone just how good he can be on field with five goals in his 150th game.
Jeremy Cameron booted six, as the Cats piled on 13 goals to Richmond’s two after half-time.
Much has been said about Geelong’s mature age recruiting, with at least half their list eligible for AstraZencia vaccines but experience made the difference with Issac Smith, Shaun Higgins along with Cameron and Rohan’s dominance up forward.
You’d be crazy not to consider adding Jeremy Cameron and/or Gary Rohan as multiple goal scorers (3+ my recommendation) if you’re having a Same Game Multi on Friday night as the Cats take on the Saints at Marvel.
(5) North Might be a Chance This Week
For the second week running, we’ll see a clash between 17th (Hawthorn) vs 18th (North Melbourne) this Saturday afternoon as the two sides meet in Launceston.
Hawthorn opens the market as $1.48 favorites with North Melbourne $2.65 underdogs, while the line market is giving the Hawks a 12.5 head start.
Saturday afternoon presents as a rare best-chance for the Kangaroos to claim a much needed win.
It’s fair to say North Melbourne won’t open any markets as favorites this season, but there might be some good value for Punters if they are a sneaky chance to jag a win.
However, playing Hawthorn in Launceston looms as a daunting prospect.