After Round 12 of the AFL we sit back, reflect and think about what we learned from another round of football.
These are the takeaways from the punters’ perspective.
A five leg multi of hindsight and being a Monday’s expert, if you will.
It’s just a shame we can’t bet on it reflectively!
1. Carlton Won’t Play Finals
To be fair, this has been a fairly reliable call for the good part of 20 years.
Currently sitting 14th on the ladder with a 4-8 record going into the bye, the Teague Train is about as reliable as Connex in peak-time (our Melbourne metropolitan readers who commuted trains back in the day will love this reference).
Losing to West Coast away, on a ground they had not won at for 22 years along with the fact the Eagles had a decent list of injuries is proof that the Blues are just not up for it.
Long-suffering Carlton fans still hear a lot of buzz words like “journey”, “learnings” and “re-build” but we’ve already paid out on the fact they’ve had a gutful.
Is it the list? Is it the coach? Is the club still suffering from salary cap penalties handed out 20 years ago?
Anyone who supports Carlton wants results, not talk.
Carlton are currently $11 to somehow make the eight, $251 to make the top four and $151 to win a miracle premiership…yeah, nah.
2. The Lid is off
The Melbourne Football Club.
Top of the ladder.
12 wins, one loss (only by a point)
$4.50 favorite to win the flag.
A sensational comeback win over the Brisbane Lions in Sydney on Friday night.
The lid is not only off, it’s gone, nowhere to be found.
If you have found the lid, please don’t return it.
The Dees face Collingwood at the SCG in a different Big Freeze set up, and you’d expect them to find themselves 13-1 heading into the bye.
Don’t talk it down Dees fans, embrace it.
3. Bad Kicking = Bad Football.
The sub editors at The Age and Herald Sun beat us to it – Missy Higgins.
Jack Higgins was easily the Saints best player in their loss to Sydney, but as has been widely reported a pair of missed shots in the last quarter cost St Kilda the game.
The former Tiger had 12 marks with 23 disposals, with 1 goal-7 behinds.
Perhaps the man they call “snags” reflects a bigger problem with goalkicking across the AFL.
For all the talk about process, structures, DNA and brands while David King looks at his laptop on FOX Footy, perhaps some good old-fashioned goal kicking practice would come in handy?
You can have all the talk about complex match day plans that you want, but being able to kick it through the big sticks is still the main point of the game.
4. Entertaining Crows (For Neutrals)
Adelaide might be sitting 15th on the ladder with 4 wins and 8 losses but in just about every game you watch this season, the Crows have a crack.
A 5-point loss to a Jamie Elliott/backs against the wall/extreme quarantine “don’t touch the football” Collingwood is one thing, but it’s a lesson for the punters: if the game involves Adelaide – play the margins.
For instance, if you had backed either team to win by less than 15.5 points in Saturday’s game, it would have been a nice $2.25 collect.
The Crows have found themselves in the contest for most of their games this season and have become a value for money team… if you play the margins and the line.
It’s unknown if they will play the Saints in Cairns or elsewhere this weekend, but you should be in for a highly entertaining contest and punters will get value for money from both sides, especially in the margin markets.
Adelaide opens the betting as the $2.25 underdog, with the Saints $1.65 favorites.
5. Sacred Parish
Despite a 39-point loss to a resurgent Richmond, Essendon’s Darcy Parish was a worthy winner of the Yiooken Award for his best-on-ground performance in the Dreamtime Game in Perth.
Parish was a worthy winner, gaining 44 disposals – the highest in Essendon’s history breaking Barry Davis record of 43 way back in 1969.
Along with 11 clearances and an unbelievable 737 meters gained, it was quite the performance from the baby Bomber.
Punters who backed Parish for 35+ disposals on Saturday night, made a solid $2.10 collect.
Darcy Parish for 30+ or 35+ disposals is basically a must if you’re having a same game multi involving Essendon.
Essendon tried their best, but they couldn’t get near as a phenomenal last term effort from the Tigers saw Richmond make it 11 wins on-the-trot against the Bombers, despite the Dons getting three-points in front early in the fourth quarter.
In the Channel 7 broadcast Hamish McLachlan described it as the “closest 39-point loss he’d ever seen”, perhaps he backed Richmond 40+ at $3.80