5 Lessons Learned – AFL Round 16

It’s time for our weekly five-leg multi of hindsight that we call- 5 Lessons Learned.

Round 16 taught us plenty, but here are the five big lessons we can take going forward as we reach the business end of the season.

(1) No Flag for You

Let’s get the big one out of the way, the big call you’ve all been waiting for and the hot take that no one has dared to touch in the Monday wash-up.

Both Richmond and West Coast won’t win the premiership this year.

A big call, I know.

After a poor performance at home against the Dogs in the week previous, West Coast put in an all-time horror show against the Swans in Geelong yesterday and the WA Media is out for blood.

Some would argue that the Eagles have majorly overachieved since their 2018 premiership triumph.

Having only won two out of five finals, despite being in the conversation as to who can win the flag for at least the past four seasons – you can put the Eagles in the underachiever’s bracket.

As for Richmond, a shock loss to the Gold Coast on Thursday night, mounting injury list, and now sitting outside the top eight – a threepeat is fetch, it’s not going to happen.

If you were told your club wouldn’t win a fourth premiership in five years, would you take it?

It’s hardly the savage burn some may think it is.

The best both can do is make the finals, but should it happen it’ll be a cameo.

(2) No one knows the fate of the Eight

They said the eight was locked in after Round 12, but recent results have shaken that up completely.

When in doubt, perhaps it’s best to look at our Top 4 futures markets to see how the eight may shape up.

  1. Western Bulldogs ($1.05)
  2. Brisbane Lions ($1.20)
  3. Melbourne ($1.20)
  4. Geelong ($1.25)
  5. Port Adelaide ($1.50)
  6. Sydney ($6)
  7. West Coast ($21)
  8. Richmond ($26)
  9. GWS ($41)

As for the “Make top 8” market, the Giants have sneaked into the eight after a big win over Melbourne and are paying $2.40, pretty good value if you can get it.

Somehow St Kilda ($5) and Carlton ($5.50) are a chance and no doubt many of their fans have spent a lot of time on the AFL Ladder Predictor in the past 48 hours.

Freo ($3) and Essendon ($5) fans need a lot to go their way, but it’s truly anyone’s guess.

As they say in the classics, it’s good for Football.

Touk the Words Right Out of My Mouth

Had Touk Miller not been suspended for one match for engaging in rough conduct against St Kilda’s Nick Coffield earlier in the season, he’d be a sneaky chance for the Brownlow.

Miller was brilliant in the Suns’ upset win over the Tigers on Thursday night raking up 36 disposals, nine clearances, and seven tackles.

So far in season 2021, the Gold Coast Suns midfielder is averaging 30.6 disposals, 16.5 kicks, and 6.6 tackles per game.

He’s a classic case of if he played for a big Victorian club, everyone would be taking more notice of his dominance on the footy field.

Touk Miller can’t win the Brownlow, but he’s an absolute must for your multis on the weekend and one for your Blackbook to poll highly – especially in the games where the Suns have won or are even just competitive.

(4) Dee-Cline?

So, Melbourne isn’t dominating in the middle part of the season? Big deal.

The Dees had their chances on Saturday against the Giants and blew it, but calling it a decline is a bit of a stretch.

It happens to just about every top team, experiencing a bit of a slump in their season of dominance.

There are seven games remaining in the home and away season, the Dees just need to get back at it to make a charge for their first flag since 1964.

Melbourne is in the third line of premiership betting at $5.50 and therefore, pretty good value in our books.

Doggie Style

The Western Bulldogs won a scrappy game against a much-improved North Melbourne by 29-points, to find themselves on top of the AFL ladder.

There was much to like about Cody Weightman’s four-goal bag along with the midfield of the Bont, Macrae, and Libba doing their thing.

Along with the Dees, there’s been a lot to like about the Western Bulldogs this season and everyone who bleeds red, white, and blue has the right to dream that they can party like it’s 2016.

The Western Bulldogs are currently our market favorites to win the AFL Premiership at $4.50.