The Rugby League World Cup group stage concluded with eight matches decided by an average margin of 55 points, confirming four quarter-final match-ups largely predicted pre-tournament.
But the knockout phase promises to deliver some long-awaited competitiveness – even if there are four distinct favourites in this weekend’s quarters.
Australia and New Zealand are expected to breeze past plucky opponents into a blockbuster semi-final, but England and Tonga face far bigger hurdles to ensure a repeat of their 2017 semi showdown.
AustraliavsLebanon
Saturday 5 November, 5:30am
Australia, the $1.45 favourite to defend its world champion crown, powered through pool play with expected ease. After overcoming feisty Fiji 42-8, the Kangaroos took Scotland (84-0) and Italy (66-6) to the cleaners – though they covered in just one of their three matches.
Campbell Graham and Murray Taulagi – competing for one wing spot – both bagged doubles against Italy last weekend, while halfback competitors Nathan Cleary and Daly Cherry-Evans racked up seven try-assists between them.
Graham has ousted Taulagi for a spot in the quarter-final, while Cleary and DCE were both named – meaning one will start on the bench, with Ben Hunt a surprise omission. Reagan Campbell-Gillard was ruled out of contention with injury, leaving the Kangaroos’ front-row contingent with a youthful look
Narrowly-beaten quarter-finalists in 2017, Lebanon has produced a highly impressive campaign to reach the last eight for the second time. The Cedars gave heavyweight New Zealand plenty of problems in a 34-12 loss then overwhelmed Ireland 32-14 in the group’s pivotal encounter.
With Adam Doueihi returning from a one-match ban at fullback and producing five try-assists, scoring one himself and running for 212 metres, Lebanon crushed Jamaica 74-12 in the final round of pool matches. Josh Mansour helped himself to a hat-trick and fellow winger Abbas Miski crossed twice.
Unsurprisingly, Lebanon is a $51 outsider to pull off the biggest upset in international rugby league history. But the Cedars will fancy their chances of giving the Kangaroos a fight despite the blowout a 42.5-point line suggests.
The nations met at the 2017 World Cup, with Australia carving out a six-try, 34-0 victory.
Mitchell Moses and Doueihi are top-line players, but Lebanon is thoroughly outmatched in just about every other department – but it’s in the forwards where Australia boast a monumental advantage.
Meanwhile, the firepower Josh Addo-Carr, Latrell Mitchell and Valentine Holmes bring out wide should ultimately blow Lebanon off the park in Huddersfield. Australia has won each of its previous World Cup quarter-final matches by at least 46 points.
Tip: Back Australia to Cover the Line (-42.5 Points) @ $1.90
SGM: AUSTRALIA BY 41-50 POINTS / JOSH ADDO-CARR TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / ANGUS CRICHTON ANYTIME TRY SCORER / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRY SCORER / LEBANON UNDER 6.5 TOTAL POINTS @ $94.96
EnglandvsPapua New Guinea
Sunday 6 November, 12:30am
England has been arguably the most impressive outfit at the World Cup to date, highlighted by its tournament-opening 60-6 destruction of Samoa as the underdog. The hosts have since subdued France 42-14 and recorded the biggest win of the Cup, a 94-4 rout of minnows Greece.
Newcastle winger Dominic Young has run in eight tries, while Victor Radley has been an outstanding addition to the England line-up as a back-rower/dummy-half. The Lions rested first-choice players Sam Tomkins, Elliott Whitehead, Herbie Farnworth, Kallum Watkins and Michael McIlorum for the Greece clash.
But Papua New Guinea is set to provide England with its biggest challenge to date. The Kumuls have been superb, bouncing back from a 24-18 heart-breaker against Tonga with convincing defeats of Cook Islands (32-16) and Wales (36-0).
Hooker Edwin Ipape has been one of the tournament’s breakout stars – laying on another four tries against Wales – while Kyle Laybutt and Lachlan Lam have arguably been the pick of the halves combinations outside of the ‘big three’ nations. Defensively the rugged Kumuls have been superb.
These nations met in the 2017 quarter-finals, with England powering to a 36-6 win in Melbourne. PNG can take the confidence of an iconic 28-10 triumph over touring Great Britain in 2019 into this showdown – but Wigan is a long way from Port Moresby.
A five-day turnaround for the Kumuls is less than ideal and a shambles from tournament organisers; the Lions have had a week’s break. Expect the underdogs to ask plenty of questions of England and cover the line, but the home side’s class across the park should be enough to secure a semi.
Tip: Back England to Win by 11-20 Points @ $3.75
SGM: 1ST HALF MARGIN ENGLAND 5-8 POINTS / UNDER 43.5 POINTS TOTAL / PAPUA NEW GUINEA +22.5 / ENGLAND TOTAL POINTS 21-30 @ $18.57
New ZealandvsFiji
Sunday 6 November, 5:30am
In another 2017 quarter-final repeat, New Zealand is aiming to atone for one of the great international boilovers – David Kidwell’s side’s shock 4-2 loss to Fiji in Wellington that will live forever in Kiwis infamy.
The Kiwis have cruised into the quarter-finals with three comfortable wins but they have been undeniably patchy. After an ugly 34-12 defeat of Lebanon, New Zealand put away Jamaica 68-6 and outlasted Ireland 48-10.
The heavyweights’ lack of ruthlessness – scoring just four tries in the last 20 minutes of their three matches – and attacking cohesion has been glaring.
The return of halfback Jahrome Hughes was a major positive from the Ireland encounter. The Storm playmaker was electric with two tries and three try-assists before being given an early mark with 19 minutes left.
Less auspiciously, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves is unavailable due to suspension – though the Kiwis’ front-row depth is staggering and can easily compensate for the Roosters veteran’s absence.
Fiji overachieved in a 42-8 loss to Australia and obliterated Italy 60-4 but was bizarrely off the pace in a 30-14 defeat of battlers Scotland – a team that had been outscored 112-4 by the other two teams in the group.
The Bati had 60 percent possession but committed 16 errors in a flat and scrappy performance few saw coming against a genuine minnow.
Fiji is a $16 outsider to make the RLWC semis for the fourth consecutive time. We’re very unlikely to see another quarter-final meltdown from Michael Maguire’s Kiwis.
But the likes of Hughes, Joey Manu, Dylan Brown and Brandon Smith need to take charge if New Zealand is to chalk up a win as convincing as the 30.5-point line suggests it should be. Though the Kiwis won’t be looking that far ahead just yet, vast improvement will be required to trouble Australia in the semis.
Tip: Back Fiji to Cover the Line (+30.5 Points) @ $1.90
SGM: 1ST HALF HANDICAP FIJI +15.5 / 41-50 TOTAL POINTS / NEW ZEALAND BY 21-30 POINTS @ $16.76
TongavsSamoa
Monday 7 November, 12:30am
The most competitive quarter-final – on paper, at least – has been saved for last, with Tonga and Samoa locking horns in the most important clash in the Pacific rivals’ history.
Both teams have underwhelmed overall so far but are coming off huge victories remain genuine smokies for a historic World Cup final appearance.
Relying heavily on their natural brilliance, Mate Ma’a Tonga topped Group D unbeaten. But they were fortunate in a 24-18 win over Papua New Guinea before making hard work of a 32-6 defeat of gritty Wales.
The scale of a 92-10 annihilation of a decent Cook Islands line-up underlined Tonga’s potential. Boom centre Will Penisini scored four of Tonga’s 16 tries, fullback Tesi Niu bagged a treble and suspended superstar Jason Taumalolo marked his first appearance of the World Cup with two tries.
Still smarting from their 60-6 humiliation at the hands of England, Toa Samoa couldn’t have done too much more to atone since. Matt Parish’s under-siege side blitzed Greece (72-4) and France (62-4) in the past fortnight. There’s still a flat-track bully question mark hanging over Samoa, however.
Controversial winger Taylan May scored four consecutive tries in the latter win, while Brian To’o (two tries, one try-assist, 265 metres) was a menace on the flank and Junior Paulo led the engine-room charge.
Tonga has streaked ahead as the highest-rated Pacific Island nation since the 2017 World Cup, which included a 32-18 pool win over Samoa after losing four of the teams’ previous five encounters. In their only match since, Tonga racked up a 38-22 victory at Campbelltown in 2018.
Courtesy of Jarome Luai, Joseph Suaali’i, Stephen Crichton and To’o, Samoa match up exceptionally well in the backline and halves. Negating Tonga’s overwhelming forward might is the big ask here – but Paulo, Josh Papalii, Spencer Leniu, Jaydn Su’A and Oregon Kaufusi are capable of evening that score.
The Penrith factor may also give Samoa an edge in this high-stakes showdown – though there’s no shortage of premiership-winning talent in the Tongan line-up.
This has the makings of one of the great World Cup encounters and an absolute cliff-hanger. Tonga’s superior record on the international stage in recent years – including historic wins over New Zealand, Australia and Great Britain – is reason enough to get behind them to close out a tight one.
Tip: Back Tonga to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.75
SGM: OVER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / 1ST HALF HANDICAP TONGA -2.5 / EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS