It’s one of the toughest things to do every four years, working out which nation will be crowned World Champions.
Do you go with your gut feeling, follow the stats or some combination of both.
32 World Cup 2022 teams have descended on Qatar for a four week football extravaganza and only one will be left holding the trophy.
We have done a deep dive in the lab on the entire field and found a statistical reason why 31 teams will not win the 2022 FIFA World Cup, leaving us with one eventual champion.
No debutant has won the World Cup since 1930
Eliminated Teams: Qatar
Let’s get the hosts out of the way first, Qatar is making its first ever World Cup Finals appearance thanks to “winning” the hosting rights.
The only time a debutant has won the World Cup was the inaugural one in 1930 when the entire tournament was made up of debutant which does somewhat lessen that achievement from Uruguay.
Add in the fact that Qatar is the lowest ranked nation and have some of the lowest overall tournament odds and it’s not shaping up as a Cinderella story for the hosts.
31 teams remain
No African side has made it beyond the Quarter Final stage
Eliminated Teams: Cameroon, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, Tunisia
Africa has produced some of the best footballers of the last 50 years with the likes of Samuel Eto’o, Roger Milia plus more recently Sadio Mane and Mo Salah.
However throughout their history, they have sent 44 teams to World Cup Finals and only produced nine teams that have advanced beyond the first stage of the tournament.
Three of those teams have made Quarter Finals with Cameroon in 1990, Senegal in 2002 and Ghana in 2010.
All five African sides were eliminated in the group stage in 2018 and there is a case to be made that it will be a similar story this month.
26 teams remain
Every World Cup has been won by a European of South American nation
Eliminated Teams: Australia, Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, USA
Let’s put a massive broom through the field and get rid of nine more nations.
This is not exactly a huge surprise considering Europe and South America have always been the dominant regions in football.
But it means that despite Asian and CONCACAF representatives looking to make a miracle, it’s not something you would be keen to back in all things considered.
17 teams remain
The reigning Copa America champion has never won the World Cup
Eliminated Team: Argentina
Let’s get rid of one of the tournament favourites.
We all loved seeing Lionel Messi lift the Copa America trophy in 2021, but it does not bode well for his chances of claiming the one thing that has eluded him during his illustrious career.
Whichever nation is the reigning champion of South America can be crossed off from World Cup glory.
But it won’t stop them making a deep run.
16 teams remain
No team has won consecutive World Cups in 60 years
Eliminated Team: France
Now for the reigning champions, there’s a few angles you can take with them, but one irrefutable statement is that the previous winners have a hard time four years later.
Brazil was the last team to successfully go back to back defeating Sweden in 1958 before doing it all again against Czechoslovakia in 1962.
Since then, only a handful of nations have made it to successive finals and none have manage to win two in a row.
Plus we all remember France’s historic implosion in 2002 the last time they were defending champions.
15 teams remain
Only 2 sides have won the next World Cup after losing the previous final
Eliminated Team: Croatia
History is not kind for Croatia’s chances in Qatar, despite being guided by Luka Modric who is likely to star in this tournament once again.
Only Brazil in 2002 and West Germany in 1986 have managed to get over the disappointment of losing a final and return four years later to win it all.
While Croatia has the talent, it’s fair to say the overachieved in 2018 and you have to stretch to feel comfortable backing them to recapture that magic.
14 teams remain
8 of the last 10 winners have been previous victors
Eliminated Teams: Belgium, Denmark, Ecuador, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Switzerland, Wales
Time for another big broom through the European (and one South American) contenders.
Belgium and Portugal are the biggest dominos to fall in this group as plenty are expecting a lot from the Red Devils while Cristiano Ronaldo is probably at his last World Cup.
Denmark and the Dutch could make some noise here but recent World Cups have not been kind to nation’s looking for their first ever tournament victory.
Only Argentina in 1986 and Spain in 2010 were first time winners and both of those sides had plenty going for them.
5 teams remain
England has never made back to back Semi Finals
Eliminated Teams: England
No, it’s not coming home.
Their fourth placed finish in Russia impressed many, as did their run to the Euro finals last year, but backing up strong performances is not really their specialty.
In 15 previous appearances, England has made the Semi Final stage three times in 1966, 1990 and 2018.
1970 saw them fall in the Quarter Finals, while England failed to qualify in 1994.
What makes this even tougher is the potentially soft path to the Semi Final they could receive with the runner up of Group A (Senegal, Ecuador or Qatar) in the Round of 16 and potentially Poland, France or Denmark in the Quarter Final.
4 teams remain
Uruguay has advanced to the Semi Finals once in 50 years
Eliminated Team: Uruguay
What divine right?
Uruguay won the World Cup in 1930 and 1950, but since then, their history at the tournament is mixed at best.
They have missed the tournament on five occasions (most recently 2006… that sounds familiar…) and have only advanced beyond the quarter finals once in the last 60 years.
While they are taking a talented squad to the 2022 edition, history is not on their side.
3 teams remain
Last time Germany missed the Semi Finals, they did it in consecutive tournaments
Eliminated Team: Germany
Germany has a pretty good record at the World Cup, making plenty of deep runs in the tournament in multiple forms.
West Germany won three finals and made a further three beyond that and the unified Germany made the final in 2002 before winning it all in 2014 with several Semi Finals in between.
However things tend to come in pairs for the Germans, and the last time they missed the Semi Finals in 1994, they did it again in 1998.
Admittedly we probably are not going to see them crash out in the Group Stage like in 2018, but a Round of 16 or Quarter Final exit is certainly on the cards.
2 teams remain
Spain has not won a World Cup when a Spanish club won the Champions League Final
Eliminated Team: Spain
We’re down to the final two and Spain’s elimination is the “fault” of Real Madrid after their success in Paris earlier this year.
With Spain dominating the Champions League, you would think that would bode well for their national team but not so.
Real won in 2018 and Spain crashed out in Russia, Real won in 2014 and Spain could not defend their title in Brazil, in 2010 Inter Milan won the Champions League and Spain won it all.
Going back even further, Barcelona won in 2006 and it was Italy victorious in the World Cup, Real won in 2002 and 1998 as Spain’s wait to be crowned world champions continued.
Long story short: If a club from Spain wins the Champions League, don’t back Spain to win the World Cup.
1 team remains
2022 Champions: Brazil
So there you have it, Brazil is the last team standing and is our tip for the World Cup!