A wild penultimate weekend of the 2023 NRL premiership regular season featured just one head-to-head upset and only two underdogs covering, but a slew of injuries and suspensions has cast further uncertainty over a frantic battle to finish in the Top 8.
The top four is confirmed (though the order isn’t), while only one other team – the surging Newcastle Knights – has officially had their finals ticket stamped.
Injury, suspension chaos clouds finals race
A host of stars will be absent for Round 27 and at least part of the finals after injuries and ill-discipline reigned over the weekend.
Penrith’s shock 32-18 home loss to Parramatta was compounded by a shoulder injury to Jarome Luai, who is likely to miss at least the Panthers’ opening finals match.
Livewire Warriors five-eighth Luke Metcalf was a disconsolate figure on the sideline during his side’s 18-6 defeat of St George Illawarra after suffering a hamstring injury.
Fortunately for the club, Te Maire Martin came through his return from a broken leg in NSW Cup without issue the following day.
Joey Manu (hamstring) is racing the clock to be fit for Friday’s do-or-die showdown with Souths after breaking down in Sydney Roosters’ 32-8 win over Wests Tigers, while Jared Waerea-Hargreaves’ season is over after being charged over two incidents that each carry three-match bans.
Kotoni Staggs is set to miss Round 27 for a dangerous contact charge after Brisbane’s hard-fought 29-18 win over Canberra, while Raiders forward Corey Horsburgh will miss three games for a shoulder charge and halfback Jamal Fogarty is sweating on a potential fractured eye socket.
Melbourne halfback Jahrome Hughes will sit out the final round after suffering medial ligament damage in a 37-16 win over Gold Coast.
Newcastle continued its incredible late-season charge with a 32-6 drubbing of Cronulla, but the Knights’ hopes of progressing in the finals will hinge on scans on in-form Kalyn Ponga’s shoulder injury.
Down to the wire for Top 8 spots
Ten teams remain in the hunt for the playoffs with only five guaranteed their place in the finals. Three crunch games in Round 27 will decide which teams’ campaigns extend at least another week.
Bitter enemies South Sydney and Sydney Roosters square off on Friday night; a victory virtually guarantees the Rabbitohs’ passage to the finals but the Roosters – who have opened as the narrowest of favourites at $1.85 – would also need North Queensland to lose at Penrith on Saturday.
The Cowboys, $2.30 underdogs, can still make it with a win over the Panthers even if the Rabbitohs get up – provided Canberra go down on the road to Cronulla on Sunday.
The Sharks are all but over the line, win or lose, due to a healthy for-and-against.
The Raiders (who have the benefit of playing in the last match of the round and will know the equation) need to beat the Sharks if the Cowboys spring an upset, due to their shocking points differential.
Broncos eye off minor premiership success
Penrith’s unexpected defeat on Thursday night – trailing Parramatta 28-4 before a late flurry cut the final margin to 14 points – ended an eight-match winning streak and handed Brisbane an opportunity to carry off the JJ Giltinan Shield.
The Broncos went to outright first with a controversial 29-18 defeat of plucky Canberra, scoring three tries in the last 20 minutes to subdue the hosts, who were brought undone by Jordan Rapana’s sin-bin for an attempted trip.
With Adam Reynolds sitting out the match, Reece Walsh was electric yet again – featuring heavily in four of the Broncos’ first five tries before snapping a field goal to open up a seven-point buffer and scoring a late match-sealing four-pointer.
A win over bogey team Melbourne on Thursday will guarantee Brisbane finishes first, but a loss combined with a Penrith victory over North Queensland will hand the table-topping spoils back to the defending champs.
The Broncos won the last of their five minor premierships – all of which they converted into grand final glory – in 2000.
Interestingly, though, only seven top-seeded teams have gone on to win the ensuing 22 premierships, with seven minor premiers missing the grand final altogether.
Brisbane has shortened to $2.80 for the title, just behind three-peat chasing Penrith $2.40.
Knights ready for September surge
Newcastle’s first eight-match winning streak since 2001-02 has claimed a Top 8 rival for the fourth time in the past six weeks, overrunning visiting Cronulla 32-6 via a dominant second-half performance.
After the Nicho Hynes-less Sharks scored the first try six minutes in, the Knights levelled through the mercurial Kalyn Ponga and piled on five unanswered tries after the break.
Again the Knights’ back-five was near-unstoppable: Bradman Best bagged a double and wingers Greg Marzhew and Dom Young crossed once each, while veteran Dane Gagai (221 metres, 13 tackle-breaks, two line-break assists) produced another blinder.
The Knights have secured a finals match at home for the first time since 2006 and will finish fifth if they beat second-last St George Illawarra in Round 27.
But the Ponga prognosis – after the brilliant fullback, who has produced 13 try assists, 12 line-breaks and 15 tackle-breaks during the Knights’ winning run, left the field in the 66th minute following a heavy shot from Jesse Ramien – will determine how deep they go into September.
On current form, the Knights (who are into $17 for the premiership) with a fully-fit Ponga have to be considered a genuine threat.
Rusty Warriors keep winning
A victory this Saturday over the ailing Dolphins – who have lost their last six games – will see the Warriors equal club records for the longest winning streak (eight matches) and most wins in a regular season (17), both set by the iconic 2002 combination.
Their first top-four finish in 16 years is locked in, but Andrew Webster’s charges will be looking for a form turnaround to avoid a gilt-edged chance to make a grand final going to waste.
The Warriors ($11 in the title market) have made tough work of putting away also-rans for the past month, but their 18-6 win over an injury-hit St George Illawarra at a sold-out Mt Smart Stadium was arguably their shakiest performance in a couple of months.
Webster was pleased with the defensive display – conceding only one try for the first time this season – but the match hung in the balance until Addin Fonua-Blake (who bombed a four-pointer in the first half) dotted down from a Tyrell Sloan in-goal bungle with five minutes remaining.
The Warriors are fighting tooth and nail to have an upcoming home semi or preliminary final staged at their Mt Smart base, rather than being forced to play at the higher-capacity Eden Park.
A Round 20 beatdown of Cronulla aside, though, their best performances of a stellar season have occurred elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the fairytale team of 2023 will be eager to build some momentum against the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium ahead of a qualifying final trip to Brisbane or Penrith the following week.