Alexei Popyrin v Corentin Moutet
6.00pm
Back Popyrin to Cover the Games Handicap (+1.5) @ $1.91
Aussie Alexei Popyrin gets his Monte-Carlo Masters campaign underway against Corentin Moutet, who goes in as a $1.65 favourite and a 3-0 rivalry record.
The pair haven’t met since at Cincinnati Masters qualifier in 2021, however.
World No.46 Popyrin has endured an injury-interrupted 2024 to date, but his last two tournament outings were impressive: a semi-final run in Doha and a third-round appearance at the Miami Masters after beating Jiri Lehecka.
Moutet, ranked 99th, had to make his way through two qualifiers to reach the main draw in Monte-Carlo – easily accounting for higher-ranked Alex Michelsen and Daniel Altmaier.
The 24-year-old Frenchman went down to Sumit Nagal from a set up at the Grand Prix Hassan II last week, but he has been playing exclusively on clay this season and reached the Chile Open semis via an upset of top seed Nicolas Jarry.
Moutet has earned a strong clay-court reputation, but Popyrin took out his second ATP title at the 2023 Croatia Open on the surface and is a value underdog option – fitness notwithstanding.
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Luca Nardi
7.15pm
Back Nardi to Win @ $1.91
Slumping big gun Felix Auger-Aliassime is only a narrow favourite up against rising Italian Luca Nardi in the first round of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
The former top-10 staple is languishing at No.36 and is 8-8 this season – though somewhat encouragingly all but two of his losses were to higher-ranked opposition. He was halted by Alexander Zverev in his last outing in the second round of the Miami Masters.
Auger-Aliassime has a decent clay record: he reached the Madrid and Rome Masters quarters along with the French Open fourth round in 2022, while his first two ATP finals (back in 2019) were on the red dirt.
World No.75 Nardi won the Napoli Challenger a week ago and outlasted Lucas Pouille and Alexandre Muller in qualifiers for the Monte-Carlo main draw, where he earned a maiden ATP 1000 match win last year.
The 20-year-old enjoyed the highlight of his brief pro career by rolling Novak Djokovic to reach the last 16 at the Indian Wells Masters. A win like that can rapidly accelerate a player’s progress and he appears to have carried that confidence with him in subsequent outings.
Laslo Djere v Stefanos Tsitsipas
11.15pm
Back Tsitsipas to Win 2-0 @ $1.75
After a tough start to 2024, 12th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas will look to work his way back to top-10 status on the clay swing – which he kicks off at the Monte-Carlo Masters against Laslo Djere in the first round.
Former French Open runner-up Tsitsipas won this tournament in 2021 and ’22, while he boasts a total of four titles from 11 clay-court ATP finals. A change of surface may be just what the Greek star needs after his patchy hard-court form culminated in a first-round loss to Denis Shapovalov in Miami.
Croatia’s Djere remains in the top 40 but has endured a dismal 3-6 start to the season – including early exits at the Argentina and Rio Opens, and a first-up loss to Fabio Fognini as the Grand Prix Hassan II’s top seed.
Tsitsipas has won all four of his clashes with Djere to date, including at the 2022 Monte-Carlo Masters and most recently at Wimbledon last year, both in straight sets. Expect the same result here.
Karen Khachanov v Cameron Norrie
1.15am
Back Over 22.5 Total Games @ $1.85
Arguably the pick of the first-round matches in Monte-Carlo with 15th seed Karen Khachanov and world No.31 Cameron Norrie squaring off for the seventh time.
The pair have split their six encounters to date. Norrie has a 2-1 edge on clay – winning at the Barcelona and Lyon Opens in 2021 – but Khachanov took out their most recent encounter at the 2022 French Open in four sets.
Khachanov has experienced a minor form dip since winning the Qatar Open in February, including a first-up loss to Thiago Seyboth Wild at Indian Wells.
A two-time quarter-finalist at the French Open, the big-serving Russian has not been past the Round of 32 at Monte-Carlo while his eight ATP finals were all on hard courts.
Norrie’s record in big clay tournaments is unimpressive, but he has strong reputation on the surface courtesy of two titles from five ATP finals – including back-to-back deciders against Carlos Alcaraz at last year’s Argentina (lost) and Rio (won) Opens.
The Brit made the semis of his Rio title defence in February but made only a minor impression at the Sunshine Double in his only outings since.
There’s a decent case to be made for both players here. Khachanov deserves his slight favouritism, but this shapes as another tough battle between the pair.