Daily Tennis Tips – 19th April

Bavarian International third seed Taylor Fritz is a $1.65 favourite to advance to the semis at the expense of Brit Jack Draper. Draper grabbed a 6-3 6-2 upset in his only previous clash with Fritz, on grass at the 2022 Queen’s Club Championships.

Fritz comfortably accounted for qualifier Alejandro Moro Canas 6-3 6-1 in the previous round. The world No.15 was coming off a first-round loss to Lorenzo Musetti at the Monte-Carlo Masters and a disappointing first-up loss to Thiago Seyboth Wild at the Miami Masters.

World No.46 Draper put up a good fight against Hubert Hurkacz in his opening assignment in Monte-Carlo – eventually losing in a third-set tiebreak – but this week he has made hard work of three-set wins over Vit Kopriva and Rudolf Molleker, both ranked well outside the top 100.

Neither player has had much success on clay, with Fritz’s effort to reach the last 16 in Madrid last year a modest highlight. But his trademark booming serve is a formidable weapon on any surface and he shapes as the pick here after looking more comfortable against low-ranked opposition.

Top seed and tournament favourite Alexander Zverev is just $1.15 to account for former top-20 star Cristian Garin in the Bavarian International quarter-finals.

Zverev beat Jurij Rodionov 7-6 6-2 in his first assignment in Munich. Garin has been impressive in getting past seventh seed Dominik Koepfer (7-6 6-3) and Alex Michelsen (6-7 6-2 6-1).

After a strong Sunshine Double campaign, world No.5 Zverev was upset by archrival Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Monte-Carlo Masters Round of 16.

Zverev won this tournament in 2017-18, while his credentials as one of the premier clay-court players of the past decade is emphasised by two Madrid Masters and one Rome Masters titles, and three straight French Open semi-final runs from 2021-23.

Garin is a clay-court specialist, with his haul of five ATP titles all coming on the surface – including the 2019 Bavarian International, where he beat Matteo Berrettini in the final.

A wayward couple of years has seen him fall out of the top 100, but the Chilean beat some quality competitors earlier this month to reach the Estoril Open semis.

The head-to-head is square one-all – Garin prevailed on clay in Munich in 2019, while Zverev took out their 2022 Rome Masters quarter-final in straight sets. Garin’s recent efforts are encouraging, but Zverev looks to be at the top of his game.

Current grand slam champions Marketa Vondrousova and Aryna Sabalenka lock horns for the seventh time in the Stuttgart Open quarter-finals.

Sabalenka has crafted a 4-2 record against Vondrousova, winning each of the duo’s last four encounters – most recently in last year’s Adelaide International quarter-finals. Vondrousova’s last victory over the Belarusian was in 2018.

After getting the first-round bye, world No.2 Sabalenka’s Round of 16 match was evenly poised at 7-6 4-6 3-3 when Paula Badosa retired. The back-to-back Australian Open champ had a fairly quiet Sunshine Double in the shadow of personal tragedy.

Wimbledon’s 2023 winner Vondrousova has also had limited time on court of late but has bounced back in Stuttgart with straight-sets wins over Donna Vekic and Anastasia Potapova.

The world No.8’s clay-court reputation centres around a shock run to the 2019 French Open final. Sabalenka was a semi-finalist for the first time at Roland Garros last year and took out the 2021 and ’23 Madrid Masters.

Sabalenka was also the runner-up here in each of the past three years, losing to players of the calibre of Iga Swiatek (twice) and Ash Barty. She’s a long way off the devastating form she displayed in Melbourne, but expect her to find a way past Vondrousova once again.

World No.1 and two-time defending Stuttgart Open champion faces injury-prone ex-US Open champ Emma Raducanu in an intriguing quarter-final.

Swiatek has won both clashes between the slam-winning wunderkinds to date: 6-4 6-4 in the quarter-finals of this tournament in 2022 and 6-3 6-1 at Indian Wells last year.

The three-time French Open champ won the Indian Wells Masters recently and kicked off her clay swing with a 6-3 6-4 win over Elise Mertens.

Raducanu has made a tentative start to her return from a long layoff in January. She pulled out of the Miami Masters after a Round of 32 loss to Aryna Sabalenka at Indian Wells.

But the 21-year-old has chalked up her most significant victories in some time this week – thrashing Angelique Kerber 6-2 6-1 and carving out a 6-0 7-5 victory over Linda Noskova, who upset Swiatek at the Australian Open.

The relentless Swiatek, a $1.13 favourite, is always hard to back against, especially on clay. But on the strength of her efforts so far, Raducanu looks solid value to cover the line – as Mertens did against Swiatek.