Daily Tennis Tips – 25th April

Four-time grand slam champion Noami Osaka has progressed to the second round of the Madrid Masters, where she takes on 15th seed Liudmila Samonsonova.

They met for the first time last month, with Osaka grabbing one of the most significant wins since her return to the WTA Tour – a 7-5 6-3 victory over Samsonova in the second round of the Indian Wells Masters.

Osaka powered to a convincing 6-4 6-1 win over Greet Mineen in the first round, after kicking off her clay swing with an equally emphatic loss to Martina Trevisan at the Open de Rouen.

Samsonova has been on a lean run since reaching the Abu Dhabi Open semis, losing six of her last seven matches – including a three-set loss to Anastasia Potapova in Stuttgart last week.

Neither has a particularly strong clay CV, though Samsonova reached the fourth round in Madrid last year. Osaka was a quarter-finalist in Madrid and Rome at the peak of her powers in 2019.

Osaka is the value option as a slight favourite given the Indian Wells result and the deep form hole Samsonova finds herself in.

Fifth seed Maria Sakkari gets her Madrid Masters tilt underway in the second round against Donna Vekic, who carved out a dominant win in the first round – and has a couple more reasons to be confident in lining up against the Greek powerhouse.

This is the duo’s 10th meeting (and first on clay) – with Vekic proving something of a bogey player by building a 6-3 rivalry lead. Sakkari won a Linz Open quarter-final last February to snap a three-match losing streak, but Vekic prevailed in their Berlin Open semi in June.

Vekic thrashed Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-2 in the first round. It’s been a modest season so far for the world No.38, who had climbed back inside the top 25 last year, though she did earn a notable upset of Aryna Sabalenka in Dubai.

The Croatian went down to Marketa Vondrousova first up at the Stuttgart Open last week.

Sakkari’s clay swing began with a semi-final run at the Charleston Open, continuing a form surge featuring a charge to the Indian Wells final and a quarter-final appearance at the Miami Masters.

The enigmatic 28-year-old was a semi-finalist here last year and at the French Open in 2021. Vekic’s most significant clay-court result was reaching the last 16 in Rome last year, while Sakkari’s performances over the last six weeks suggests she will reverse the rivalry trend.

Sebastian Ofner and Pedro Cachin are both searching for a form reversal at the Madrid Masters, where they square off in the first round.

The pair have met twice – both on clay – with Ofner winning in qualifying in Sao Paulo in 2018 and Cachin taking out a Madrid Challenger clash last year.

World No.45 Ofner has won just three of his last 10 matches, though three of his losses were to top-15 opposition – more recently against Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Barcelona Open after beating Pavel Kotov in the first round.

Cachin is in a much deeper trough, going 0-10 so far this season and chasing his first main draw win since September. Ranked 91st after cracking the top 50 last year by winning a maiden ATP title on clay in Gstaad, he went down to Harold Mayot in Barcelona last week.

The Argentine reached the fourth round in a breakout run at the 2023 Madrid Masters, but it would be tough to back him against any player in the top 100 on any surface at present.

A pair of clay specialists lock horns with Serbian Dusan Lajovic a $1.48 favourite to account for Brazil’s Thiago Monteiro.

The head-to-head is three-all including Challenger, Future and qualifying matches. Lajovic is 2-1 at our level, but their last clash was in the first round of the 2019 French Open; Monteiro won a pair of Challenger encounters (one on clay) in 2022.

World No.65 Lajovic will be looking to rediscover the magic of last year’s clay swing, when he stunned compatriot Novak Djokovic on his way to his second ATP title at the Banja Luka Open.

A Monte-Carlo Masters finalist in 2019, the veteran’s South American clay swing earlier this season included reaching the quarters at the Argentina and Rio Opens, while he made it to the semis of the Barcelona Open last week, taking Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets.

World No.118 Monteiro won qualifying matches against Lucas Pouille and Radu Albot to make the main draw. He’s mainly been plugging away on the Challenger circuit in 2024, but he did also make the last eight at the Rio Open.

After beating the likes of Diego Schwartzman, Ugo Humbert, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Arthur Fils in Barcelona, it would surprise to see the wily Lajovic get tipped up here.