Donna Vekic v Jasmine Paolini
7.00pm
Back Paolini to Win 2-0 @ $2.30
First-time grand slam semi-finalist Donna Vekic squares off against fellow 28-year-old Jasmine Paolini, who is one win away from a second straight major decider.
Paolini leads the head-to-head 2-1, prevailing at the 2021 Cincinnati Masters and 2023 Canadian Masters – by identical 7-6 6-2 scorelines – either side of Vekic’s dominant 6-2 6-0 victory at the Courmayeur Ladies Open in 2021.
World No.37 Vekic came into Wimbledon on the back of a run to the Bad Homburg final.
The Croatian has only played one seeded player – outlasting 28th seed Dayana Yastremska in three – while she has accounted for Xiyu Wang, Erika Andreeva (her only straight-sets win), Paula Badosa and Kiwi bolter Lulu Sun, who she beat after coming from a set down in her third slam quarter-final.
Paolini had not been beyond the fourth round of a major before charging to the French Open final – nor had she recorded a WTA match win on grass until the recent Eastbourne International.
But the Italian has looked right at home, beating Sara Sorribes Tormo, Greet Mineen and Bianca Andreescu in straight sets, before surviving a Round of 16 battle with 12th seed Madison Keys, who retired with the score tied 5-5 in the deciding set.
Paolini powered on with a ruthless 6-2 6-1 quarter-final win over 19th seed Emma Navarro.
On the strength of their last performances, Paolini is a deserving $1.57 favourite – Vekic was on the ropes against a qualifier.
Vekic has some handy top-10 wins on her CV, including against Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari on grass at last year’s German Open, and against Aryna Sabalenka in Dubai earlier this year. But Paolini’s recent big-match successes are hard to overlook ahead of this showdown.
Elena Rybakina v Barbora Krejcikova
7.00pm
Back Rybakina to Cover the Games Handicap (-4.5) @ $1.91
Wimbledon’s 2022 champion Elena Rybakina lines up in the semi-finals against Barbora Krejcikova, who has performed a remarkable turnaround to get to within one win of her second grand slam final.
Still in the top 10 in February, Krejcikova has tumbled to No.32 and arrived at Wimbledon on a 2-7 run.
But after surviving a tough first-round draw in three sets against Veronika Kudermetova, she has not dropped a set in beating Katie Volynets, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, 11th seed Danielle Collins and 13th seed Jelena Ostapenko.
This is only the 2021 French Open champion’s second grand slam semi.
Rybakina has been here at major level twice before, when she triumphed at Wimbledon two years ago and when she reached the Australian Open final in 2023.
The world No.4 has been devastating throughout this tournament, dropping more than five games just once (against Laura Siegemund in a three-set Round of 64 win).
Rybakina scored crushing wins over Elena-Gabriela Ruse, Caroline Wozniacki and Anna Kalinskaya, before overwhelming Elina Svitolina 6-3 6-2 in the quarters.
Krejcikova won both of the pair clashes to date, lengthy three-setters at the 2021 Grampians Trophy and the 2022 Ostrava Open. She has the variety and craft to counter Rybakina’s irresistible power, but her best run in a long time is set to come to a halt against the hot title favourite.