The G1 Victoria Derby is one of the highlights of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, and we’ll be treated to another quality edition of the three-year-old feature at Flemington this Saturday.
The time-honoured Classic will see a capacity field of 16 colts and geldings go to war for the $2 million in prize money on offer.
Last weekend’s G1 Spring Champion Stakes winner, El Castello, is the early favourite for the 2500m staying test.
Champion trainer Chris Waller has won the past two editions of the race, but will incredibly not have a runner in the field this year.
James McDonald is still riding the high of winning his 100th G1 race with Via Sistina in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate and will look to win back-to-back Victoria Derby titles when he teams up with King Of Thunder who is well in the market.
The late Riff Rocket saluted as the favourite last year for punters, but the Derby does have a long history of upsets including Manzoice ($21), Johnny Get Angry ($21) and Prized Icon ($17) who have all won in the past ten years.
Who will emerge as the next champion three-year-old stayer?
We’ll do our best to answer that question in our comprehensive look at each horse in this year’s field. (Prices current at time of publish)
1. El Castello (18)
Price: $3.60
The Anthony Cummings-trained colt is the favourite for this year’s Victoria Derby as he searches for his fifth win in a row.
The son of Castelvecchio won his maiden four starts ago before taking out a Midway Handicap at his next start.
His meteoric rise continued three starts back when he let down powerfully to win the G3 Gloaming Stakes by 1.8 lengths.
Last start he once again called upon his toughness to hold off the fast-finishing Henlein to win the Spring Champion Stakes.
He’s now on the quick back-up and it must be a query to how much that run will have taken out of him and his ability to produce his best again so soon.
While he has demonstrated good tactical speed the outside barrier is from ideal.
There is no doubting his ability as the only G1 winner in the race and that he’s a leading player, however I’m reluctant to take him at the price given he won’t have the easiest of runs.
2. Red Aces (4)
Price: $7.00
The Nick Ryan-trained colt was a total forget first-up in the G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude but he bounced back beautifully at his next start when running on strongly to finish 1.3 lengths second in the Listed Super Impose Stakes.
Last start he enjoyed a nice run in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase before taking off at the 600m and holding on for a head victory.
He’s on the quick back-up and that run will have brought him along nicely for the rise to 2500m which shouldn’t be a problem given he is a son of Dundeel.
He maps to get a beautiful run and looks to be one of the major players.
3. Keeneland (11)
Price: $9.00
The Busuttin & Young-trained gelding has been up for some time in his first preparation after making his debut in August.
However, he has improved with each race and that was the case when he produced a dominant performance three starts back to win his maiden by three lengths.
The son of Almanzor was particularly tough two starts back in the Listed Super Impose Stakes when after racing on a fast speed over 1800m, he gave a strong kick to win and defeat Red Aces by 1.3 lengths.
Last start in the G3 Caulfield Classic when despite finishing a neck third, he had his colours lowered a touch when entitled to finish off better than he did after sitting outside the lead on a slow speed.
That may have been due to the Soft 7 track, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but I feel he still needs to lift.
4. Goldrush Guru (15)
Price: $12.00
Andrew Gluyas brings his colt from South Australia following some dominant performances in his home state.
The son of American Pharoah opened this preparation with back-to-back wins including his maiden before finishing runner-up at his subsequent two starts.
He started as a $1.50 favourite last start in the Hill Smith Stakes and made a mockery of the opposition, swooping five wide on the turn before easily beating them by 2.3 lengths.
He’s rock hard fit and will have to be to handle the rise from 1800m to 2500m.
He gets the service of Jamie Kah who will need to conjure up all her magic to overcome an outside barrier.
Given these negatives, he seems under the odds and I’m happy for him to go around without me.
5. Saint Emilion (6)
Price: $14.00
The lightly raced colt enters the Victoria Derby looking to win his third race in a row.
The Ciaron Maher-trained son of Snitzel proved too strong two starts back when winning his maiden over a mile at Goulburn by 1.8 lengths.
He demonstrated his staying potential last start in the Listed Geelong Classic over 2200m when letting down powerfully in the final furlong to win by 1.8 lengths.
He has improved with each run as he has stepped up in distance and the signs suggest that will continue here.
I wouldn’t be leaving this guy out of your multiples.
6. Kingofwallstreet (10)
Price: $16.00
The Matt Cumani-trained colt looks like a stayer with potential.
At just his second start, he settled towards the tail in the Victoria Derby Preview before charging down the outside to finish a head second.
He backed that excellent effort up last start when he proved strongest in the Caulfield Classic despite a pre-race incident that needed him to be cleared at the barriers.
Being sired by Dundeel he’ll stay all day so he shouldn’t have a problem with the rise to 2500m and looks a knockout hope.
7. Politely Dun (5)
Price: $13.00
It took six starts, but the Danny O’Brien gelding broke through for his maiden win two starts back when looking a different class horse in a 3.3 length romp over 2000m at Ballarat.
He got too far back last start in The Vase before running on strongly in the second quickest final 800m to finish three lengths fourth.
The blinkers come off for the first time and he gives every indication that the rise to 2500m will suit him beautifully.
There is no doubt that he’ll be charging home, the query will be whether he leaves himself too much work to do as he’ll more than likely settle at the back of the pack.
8. King Of Thunder (1)
Price: $7.50
The O’Shea & Charlton-trained gelding improved significantly in his second start back this preparation following an unlucky run first-up at Kembla Grange.
He was not suited by the slow tempo in The Vase where he settled towards the back, but to his credit he produced a devastating turn of foot to finish a neck third.
The son of Tivaci will strip fitter third-up and did bolt in by 5.5 lengths when having his third run last preparation over a mile at Kembla Grange.
Top jockey James McDonald takes the ride and he’s always used by O’Shea when the conditioner really likes his horse’s chances.
The inside barrier should see ‘J-Mac’ settle closer in the run which will give him an excellent shot at victory.
9. Tenbury Wells (14)
Price: $19.00
The Brad Widdup-trained colt won back-to-back races at Kembla Grange to win his maiden and then a Class 1 Handicap.
He was supported in the Gloaming Stakes last start but loomed as a winning hope before weakening late to finish fifth by 3.7 lengths.
The son of Fastnet Rock is drawn poorly and it’s hard seeing him turning the tables on El Castello.
10. Peru (2)
Price: $51.00
The son of Brazen Beau hasn’t had a preparation that screams Victoria Derby contender.
He did nothing in the Caulfield Classic when finishing 14 lengths last two starts back before weakening late for a 3.3 length sixth in The Vase last start.
I can’t see him improving enough to threaten the placings.
11. China Sea (7)
Price: $15.00
The John Sargeant-trained gelding worked home well from too far back first-up in the G3 Ming Dynasty before a luckless run in the Listed Dulcify Stakes.
Last start the son of Fastnet Rock enjoyed a nice run in the Caulfield Classic before running on well to be agonisingly beaten in a photo finish.
I just don’t know about that race being a good form reference given they walked before sprinting home.
Regardless, he will be at peak fitness and gains lengths with G1 jockey Mark Zahra going on.
12. Hot Too Go (13)
Price: $34.00
The Danny O’Brien-trained colt is still a maiden after seven starts and has a problem with running into one better horse in his recent starts.
He went too hard to find the front last start in the Geelong Classic and it took its toll late, with him finishing 1.8 lengths second.
The blinkers come off which may see him race less fiercely but with the wide gate and the fact he hasn’t won, I’m happy for him to go around without me.
13. Scary (8)
Price: $31.00
The son of 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking looked a promising stayer when he broke through over 1700m at Sale three starts ago with a 3.3 length win.
He then ran well when finding the line behind Keeneland and Red Aces to finish third by 2.1 lengths in the Super Impose Stakes.
The colt disappointed last start when failing to make an impression in the Caulfield Classic and because of that, I can see the Victoria Derby being too rich for him.
14. Oxford Blue (16)
Price: $26.00
The son Fiorente led from start to finish when breaking his maiden second-up over 1740m at Sale.
That win saw him start as a short-priced favourite in the Geelong Classic where he enjoyed a great run but just failed to finish off and came third by 1.9 lengths.
Saint Emilion had his measure that day and it’s hard to see him turning the tables with a rise in distance and a terrible barrier.
15. West Indies (17)
Price: $67.00
It’s hard to make a valid case for the Mark Walker-trained gelding after he led at a slow pace and weakened to be beaten by 3.6 lengths in the Caulfield Classic.
He needs to be aimed at something a lot easier.
16. Autumnheat (12)
Price: $81.00
The rank outsider of the field is still a maiden following five starts including a 3.1 length fifth in The Vase and can find a lot easier.
17e. War Ribbon (3)
Price: $26.00
The David Payne-trained gelding led and gave them a donkey licking last start over 2260m at Newcastle.
That was just a Class 1 Handicap so it’s hard to see that correlating to a strong performance here.
18e. Ceccheti (9)
Price: $71.00
Maiden galloper who had every chance and was well beaten last start in the Hill Smith Stakes.
The Judgement
I’m going with Red Aces who has had the Victoria Derby as his target since winning the Byerley Handicap over 1800m here in July at just his second start.
He’s raced super this preparation and topped it off with an impressive win last start in the The Vase where he was flushed out early but still produced plenty in the run home.
Trainer Nick Ryan suggested that he was a little fresh heading into that run and the 2040m contest has topped him off nicely for Saturday’s 2500m test of stamina.
He’s drawn beautifully which should see Jamie Mott give him every chance by settling in a prominent position.
Selections:
1st – Red Aces (2)
2nd – King Of Thunder (8)
3rd – Saint Emilion (5)
4th – El Castello (1)