New Zealand and Tonga face off in a straight shootout for a spot alongside Australia in the Pacific Championships final, while Papua New Guinea is a short favourite to account for Bowl minnows Cook Island at home and seal its place in the promotion/relegation fixture.
Here’s how week three of the international schedule is shaping up.
New Zealand Kiwis vs Tonga XIII
Saturday 2 November, 5:05pm, Go Media Stadium
New Zealand and Tonga are licking wounds of varying degrees of severity after going down to Australia in the opening two weeks of the Pacific Championships.
The equation is simple for the teams at what will be a heaving Mt Smart Stadium in Auckland: win and you’re in the November 10 final against the Kangaroos in Sydney.
Both teams were brave in defeat against the world champions.
Tonga defended resolutely in its 18-0 loss in Brisbane – making Australia look clunky – with only an intercept try against them in the opening 50 minutes and conceding only one further four-pointer before a last-minute try blew the scoreline out.
But a typically powerful engine-room performance was negated by a lack of attacking variety and poor execution at the opposition end from halves Isaiya Katoa and Tui Lolohea.
The Kiwis matched the vastly improved Kangaroos in most facets in Christchurch on Sunday, with ruthlessly punished defensive lapses proving the difference in a 22-10 result.
They counterpunched impressively when the game threatened to get away from them at various stages, however, and crafted two excellent tries – though an extended period early in the second half camped on the Australian line that failed to produce points would prove crucial.
New Zealand’s starting line-up debutants – Keano Kini, Will Warbrick, Phoenix Crossland and Naufahu Whyte – were among their best, while an out-of-retirement Shaun Johnson looked anything but off the pace and had a big hand in both tries.
On the downside, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad was ineffective in the unfamiliar five-eighth role and the Kiwis lacked threats on the edges.
New Zealand coach Stacey Jones has resisted change, with the only alteration to his 17 seeing 2023 hero Leo Thompson return from suspension on the bench for debutant Jordan Riki.
Tonga, too, has made just one change from a fortnight ago. Keaon Koloamatagi has left the squad to be with his partner, who is due to give birth, and is replaced on the interchange by Roosters forward Siua Wong.
Tonga started an international rugby league revolution with their unforgettable 2017 World Cup upset of the Kiwis in Hamilton.
The nations have met twice since – both at this venue, bathed in a sea of red – with the Kiwis carving out emphatic wins in 2019 (34-14) and 2022 (26-6).
On the evidence of the teams’ initial hit-outs, New Zealand are deserving $1.46 favourites.
The Kiwis match up to Tonga’s forward might extremely well, led by the likes of James Fisher-Harris and Joe Tapine, and pose more questions near the opposition’s line.
The individual battle between Johnson and Katoa, and to a lesser extent No.1 Test novices Kini and Lehi Hopoate, will have a major bearing on the result.
But the uncomfortable truth is Tonga has underwhelmed on the international stage since its 2017-19 giant-killing heyday and it would require a sizeable upset to snatch the final berth from the defending champs’ grasp.
Tip: Back the Kiwis to Cover the Line (-6.5) @ $1.90
SGM: KIWIS BY 6-10 / UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / WILL WARBRICK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @
PNG Kumuls vs Cook Islands AITU
Sunday 3 November, 3:00pm, Santos National Football Stadium
Papua New Guinea all but booked its spot in the Pacific Championships promotion match with a Bowl-opening upset of Fiji in Suva – a notion solidified by Cook Islands’ week two capitulation against the Bati.
The Kumuls defied their status as 4.5-point underdogs two weeks ago, overwhelming Fiji 22-10.
Their back-five, particularly Robert Derby and Nene MacDonald, who began and finished the scoring, respectively, outplayed their higher-profile Fiji opposites, while the vastly experienced Jack De Belin led the forward pack well and halfback Lachlan Lam directed traffic with impressive poise.
The result could have been more convincing but for a slew of narrowly missed scoring opportunities in the second half.
Cook Islands would have spied an opportunity for a boilover heading into last Saturday’s Suva showdown but were hammered 56-6 by the chastened Fijians.
The Aitu started promisingly and posted the first try through hooker Rua Ngatikaura, but it was all one-way traffic from that point.
Five of Fiji’s 10 tries came in the last 20 minutes as Cook Islands faded away badly.
The fact halfback Esan Marsters led their run metres tally (with 117) indicates how physically outplayed the Cook Islands were.
There’s no changes for the $6.00 outsiders, whose game will revolve around the trio of halves Marsters and Brad Takairangi, and quality forward Davvy Moale.
Papua New Guinea has made one enforced change with captain Rhyse Martin to miss the game due to personal reasons, replaced in the second-row by Dan Russell.
But it should matter little to a Kumuls side, who won the corresponding clash in Port Moresby last year 46-10 with MacDonald running in four tries.
Expect a similarly resounding result here with the hosts cruising past the line.
Tip: Back the Kumuls to Cover the Line (-18.5) @ $1.90
SGM: KUMULS BY 41-50 / OVER 52.5 TOTAL POINTS / NENE MACDONALD TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / ROBERT DERBY TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES