World racing’s focus will be locked on Flemington this Tuesday, November 5th for 2024 Melbourne Cup Day.
Ten races, brimming with local and international talent will be headlined by the time-honoured Melbourne Cup 2024, and it looms as one of the most open editions of the race since the turn of the century.
Can Willie Mullins finally break through and win a race he’s been desperate to claim for years? Will the Melbourne Cup stay onshore? Will a roughie emulate the 2015 heroics of Prinze Of Penzance? Click here for the full run down on all 24 horses in the Melbourne Cup field.
You can find my Melbourne Cup tips, and my thoughts on every other race at Flemington on Tuesday below.
Race 1 - 10:45am AEDT
Listed Maribyrnong Plate (1000m)
Melbourne Cup Day 2024 launches with the time-honoured Maribyrnong Plate for two-year-olds and on exposed form, I thought it looked a winnable race for Price Tag.
Price Tag has only made one appearance at the races so far and after being held up at a crucial stage in running, he hit the line well to fill the minors.
He’s very well bred for a race like this one and with natural improvement, he can begin his rise through the grades.
2 Units Price Tag
Race 2 - 11:20am AEDT
Listed TAB Trophy (1800m)
Lavalier hasn’t quite reached the heights that perhaps we thought he would this time in, and I love that James Cummings has changed tack to target a race like this one, instead of a Victoria Derby.
Lavalier has been firm in the market in some good races this time in and has finished on the placegetters’ heels at each of his last three.
He’s hard fit, this is one of the weaker races that he has contested, and the booking of Jamie Kah adds further confidence.
1 Unit E/W Lavalier
Race 3 - 12pm AEDT
MSS Security Subzero Handicap (1400m)
One of the real highlights of Melbourne Cup week is the greys race, and a typically open field has been taken this year. With that in mind, I’m on the hunt for value and I think it might lie with the lightly-race Stormfront.
Stormfront has only made three appearances at the races since debuting, but he stamped himself as one to watch by winning his first two starts impressively, while he was last seen finishing a credible third behind the talented Capper Thirtynine in a BM70 at Cranbourne.
Barrier 13 is the knock but a senior rider in Ben Melham helps, and with even luck, he certainly looks up to something of this quality.
2 Units Stormfront
Race 4 - 12:40pm AEDT
The Schweppervescence Plate (1000m)
This is easily one of the more open races on the program and at publish, we’re faced with $6.50 the field.
Blue Stratum has been racing in competitive form this time and is one that looks a touch of overs in my opinion at odds of $21 (at publish).
His first two runs back were crisp and we were with him on both occasions, while he’s continued to acquit himself in some tougher races in the wake.
He’s hard fit, he’s raced well down the straight here at HQ previously and in something like this, he’s worthy of a small each way ticket for mine.
1 Unit E/W Blue Stratum
Race 5 - 1:20pm AEDT
Australian Heritage Cup (2800m)
The other staying race on Melbourne Cup Day 2024 has drawn an open field of stayers including Newfoundland, who I have on top.
Newfoundland filled the minors in BM72 company at Canterbury when resuming back in September and has since recorded consecutive metro victories, also in 72 company.
This is a tougher race, but he has the runs on the board and is certainly up to something of this quality.
2 Units Newfoundland
Race 6 - 1:55pm AEDT
Listed Furphy Plate (1800m)
Apulia kept on coming to only just miss in the VOBIS Gold Star at The Valley when resuming and looks beautifully placed to go one better on Melbourne Cup Day.
The Fiorente gelding has only missed placing a handful of times in thirteen previous trips to the races, winning twice and finding form around some handy opposition in some good races.
His fresh effort suggested he’s return in top order and any improvement would find him hard to beat out to 1800m.
3 Units Apulia
Race 7 - 3pm AEDT
Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)
The nation will be stopped at 3pm AEDT on Tuesday when a smart field of local and international stayers steps out for the 2024 Melbourne Cup.
With a case to be made for nearly all of them this year, I’m going to have a few bets. The first is with my on-topper, Absurde.
We saw this horse run a bold race in the Melbourne Cup last year, finding a position handy to the speed and staying on really well to ultimately finish seventh. That was actually the opposite of what this horse usually does in settling back off the pace and calling on a sharp turn of foot when the whips start cracking.
He’s turned in some typically fine performances in the UK and Ireland this year and with different tactics, I’m confident he can be crowned the 2024 Melbourne Cup winner.
His stablemate Vauban also going around again in the Melbourne Cup this year and I’m keen to have something on him as well.
Vauban was sent off the pre-post favourite in Melbourne Cup betting last year but failed to find late in the piece and finished fourteenth, beaten well over ten lengths by Without A Fight.
His campaign this year has been strong and competitive, and included victories at Naas and York, while he’s accounted for some of the world’s best stayers in the process. He’s a more experienced, stronger horse and is more than worthy of another crack and Australia’s showpiece event.
I’m confident that those two gallopers can and will be in the finish, while I can also make a case for the likes of Buckaroo and Onesmoothoperator, and I thought that Sharp ‘N’ Smart was one at huge Melbourne Cup odds that could run a cheeky race.
2 Units E/W Absurde
1 Unit Vauban
Boxed Trifecta: 1,2,6,9,13
Race 8 - 3:50pm AEDT
Listed The Amanda Elliot (1400m)
Chewing Gum was scratched from The Vanity on Derby Day to instead run here and I think it will prove to be the correct decision.
Chewing Gum was a dominant winner on debut down at Geelong in September, and she has since placed behind a couple of good ones in races at Sandown and Caulfield.
She steps out on Tuesday in peak order, Ethan Brown sticks from a good draw and she’s another whom we can have something on each way.
2 Units E/W Chewing Gum
Race 9 - 4:35pm AEDT
Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)
Another wide-open race with plenty of winning chances engaged in the Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes and I’m taking the value around a fit Tiz Invincible ($21 at publish).
Tiz Invincible is yet to strike in three runs back from a break, but her fitness has clearly improved with each of them, and I thought her run for fifth in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes last time was sound.
She’s hard fit now, Jamie Kah adds something in the saddle and looking back to her form and results of last spring, she’s certainly up to something of this quality at her best.
1 Unit E/W Tiz Invincible
Race 10 - 5:15pm AEDT
Channel 9 Trophy (1400m)
The cheer from the punters if a horse named Warnie gets up in the last on Melbourne Cup Day will be something else.
The horse won two of four starts over in the UK during his debut prep, while he arrived in Australia with a fine performance and victory right here at HQ last month.
With natural improvement, I really can’t find a reason why he won’t be in the finish again.
3 Units Warnie