See below for our daily tennis tips and best bets around the courts for Wednesday March 12 at Indian Wells, including the top tips and players to back in our tennis betting markets!
Coco Gauff v Belinda Bencic
4.00am
Back Over 21.5 Total Games @ $1.83
In a repeat match-up of the Australian Open’s Round of 16, world No.3 Coco Gauff lines up against in-form Belinda Bencic in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Masters.
Gauff fought back to win that encounter in Melbourne 5-7 6-2 6-1, giving her a 2-1 lead in the rivalry. Bencic won at the 2021 Adelaide International, while Gauff’s other victory was at the 2023 Citi Open.
Bencic’s comeback from a maternity break has been one of the highlights of 2025 so far, winning the Abu Dhabi Open with wins over Marketa Vondrousova and Elena Rybakina.
The former world No.1 is into the last 16 here after accounting for Tatjana Maria (6-1 6-1), 17th seed Amanda Anisimova (6-4 6-7 6-1) and 13th seed Diana Shnaider (6-4 6-4).
Gauff made hard work of a 6-4 3-6 7-6 first-round win over Moyuka Uchijima but looked better in a 7-6 6-2 victory against Maria Sakkari – a much-needed boost after being bounced in the first round in Doha and Dubai by Marta Kostyuk and Mccartney Kessler, respectively.
Gauff was a semi-finalist at Indian Wells last year, while Bencic made the semis back in 2019.
Though Gauff is very tempting to get behind as only a $1.80 favourite, this is too close to call on current form.
Liudmila Samsonova v Jasmine Paolini
4.00am
Back Samsonova to Win @ $1.83
After an indifferent start to the year world No.6 Jasmine Paolini is striving for momentum at Indian Wells, where she takes on 24th seed Liudmila Samsonova in the Round of 16.
Samsonova is 2-0 against Paolini, winning at the 2019 St Petersburg Ladies Trophy and the 2023 Australian Open.
Dual 2024 grand slam runner-up Paolini arrived at Indian Wells with a 4-3 record in 2025, going down to Elina Svitolina at the Australian Open, Jelena Ostapenko at the Qatar Open and Sofia Kenin in Dubai.
Even here the Italian has been unconvincing, requiring three sets to see off Iva Jovic and Jaqueline Cristian.
Samsonova has also struggled to string wins together since her impressive semi-final run in Adelaide, upset by Olga Danilovic at the Australian Open and Veronika Kudermetova in Abu Dhabi. She went down to Ostapenko in Doha and Jessica Pegula in Dubai.
But she’s been the stronger performer of the pair so far at Palm Springs, putting away Caty McNally (7-6 6-4) and rallying to beat 12th seed Daria Kasatkina (2-6 6-3 6-2) and Samsonova reached WTA 1000 finals in Montreal and Beijing in 2023.
Paolini has the higher ceiling – but she hasn’t played anywhere near it this season. Meanwhile, aside from a breakout capture of the Dubai Championships title last year, she is yet to prove herself as a consistent hard-court player.
Jack Draper v Taylor Fritz
4.00am
Back Draper to Cover the Games Handicap (-1.5) @ $1.85
World No.4 Taylor Fritz hasn’t had the best start to 2025 and has his work cut out in the Round of 16 at the Indian Wells Masters – the scene of the biggest triumph of his career to date – in the shape of in-form Brit Jack Draper.
The head-to-head is square at two-all, Draper bookending Fritz’s wins on clay at Munich and the Paris Olympics last year with victories at the 2022 Queen’s Club Championships and, in their only hard-court meeting, the Paris Masters in October.
US Open runner-up Fritz lost in the third round of the Australian Open to Gael Monfils, and suffered early exits in Dallas to Denis Shapovalov and Delray Beach to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina after going into both as the top seed and the latter as two-time defending champ.
The Indian Wells winner in 2022, Fritz saw off Matteo Gigante 6-3 7-5 in the first round and outlasted Alejandro Tabilo 4-6 6-3 6-1.
World No.14 Draper has reached the fourth round with wins over teenage phenom Joao Fonesca (6-4 6-0) and Jenson Brooksby (7-5 6-4), continuing a strong – if injury-interrupted – start to 2025, with Carlos Alcaraz stopping him in the AO’s fourth round before he made the Qatar Open final.
Draper has a 6-13 record against top-10 players, with half of those wins coming in the second half of 2024. On current form he should have big-serving Fritz’s measure.
Francisco Cerundolo v Alex de Minaur
4.00am
SGM - Back de Minaur to Win and Cerundolo to Cover the Games Handicap (+5.5) @ $2.16
Ninth seed Alex de Minaur and 25th seed Francisco Cerundolo lock horns in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells, the pair’s second meeting already in 2025.
De Minaur took out their maiden encounter at the Australian Open less than two months ago, winning in four sets after dropping the first.
A quarter-finalist in the past four grand slams, de Minaur is attempting to reach the last eight at Indian Wells for the first time. He’s 12-4 on tour so far in 2025, including dominant wins over David Goffin (6-2 6-2) and 21st seed Hubert Hurkacz (6-4 6-0) so far in Palm Springs.
Clay specialist Cerundolo had not previously been past the third round here, but he was a shock Miami Masters semi-finalist on ATP 1000 debut in 2022.
Coming off a fairly successful South American clay swing, the Argentine fought back to beat Mackenzie McDonald 4-6 7-6 6-1 in his first assignment, then overwhelmed Djokovic’s destroyer, Botic van de Zandschulp, 6-3 6-4.
Cerundolo boasts four top-10 wins on hard courts (including Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev last year) but de Minaur will be too good in this one.